Free MLB home run picks, odds for April 27: Expert targeting Jose Ramirez for Monday HR player props

Targeting switch hitters that are significantly better from one side of the plate tends to be a main angle I take for hitter props, and while that's not always the best method for finding home runs, it works perfectly for the version of Ramirez we're seeing this year. He's hitting the ball hard with consistency when batting from the right side, averaging nearly a 95mph hard hit ball on each pitch type from lefty pitchers, and he's seen his barrel rate jump from last year when in the left vs. right matchup. Steven Matz has allowed all five of his home runs this year against righty bats, with a sinker thrown over 40% of the time that isn't missing bats and is being hit hard routinely. With a little wind blowing out the left field and warmer temps in Cleveland, I'm backing Ramirez for a home run and on a few other hitter props.

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Mike Trout (+413)

The only potential issue in this game will be the weather with wind seeming to push in from right field at a good clip, and potentially some rain later in the game. Besides that, we get a humidity bump that should help the ball travel further and a left-handed pitcher on the mound for the White Sox that hasn't covered many innings. Even if Anthony Kay is able to get through this order a couple of times, he's been held under five innings in four of his five starts thus far and is followed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The White Sox bullpen numbers get a bit skewed because they use openers and relievers in a bit of a different way, but they still lack lock-down relievers and Trout is on the away team with the full nine at-bats here.

The Angels' star hit a home run in the finale in Kansas City on Sunday and he avoided strikeouts, which was great to see. Trout has looked locked in all season long with an astonishing 100th percentile barrel rate and despite his power mainly coming against righties, this is a mismatch against Kay who throws the fastball 35% of the time against right-handed batters. He does have a deeper arsenal than most pitchers, but still relies on the fastball against righties and Trout has both of his homers off lefties on the fastball this year. The Chicago bullpen and Kay's lack of efficiency play into a home run bump for the Angels bats, including Jorge Soler, Jo Adell, Zach Neto and our guy Trout.

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