Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 11: Expert backs Pete Alonso for Monday HR player props

Best Home Run picks for Monday

• Spencer Jones (+542)
• Daulton Varsho (+473)
• Pete Alonso (+410)

Spencer Jones, Yankees (+542, DraftKings)

With a limited number of options here tonight on a smaller slate of games, how about a couple names you may not hear anywhere else, along with a more chalky pick that still has good odds?

Across his two starts at home in Baltimore thus far, Brandon Young has allowed three home runs in 9 2/3 innings, and he faces a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in home runs. One guy who has not contributed to that team home run number is rookie Spencer Jones, who made his debut this past weekend in Milwaukee.

Facing off with Jacob Misiorowski was certainly a tough first test and on Monday, Jones will see a fastball from Young that is significantly slower and easier to handle even more so than an average MLB arm. Young has been getting hit hard nearly half of the time, specifically against lefties, which may be attributed to his narrow mix of pitches.

Throwing the four-seam fastball 50% of the time, a splitter at a 35% rate and a curveball that has been ineffective at getting whiffs at a 10% clip, he doesn't have the depth of notable pitches against lefties. The curveball is actually his best offering for run prevention against left-handed batters, while the fastball and splitter have both been crushed, with .513 and .539 xSLG rates respectively.

None of the pitches whiff many batters, which is the Achilles' heel for Jones, so if we can put a higher number of balls in play here, I'm happy to take a shot that we can see the first home run in the majors for the touted prospect with prodigious power.

Lastly, the fly ball rate has jumped at an alarming rate so far for the Baltimore starter, and we get both Jones and Young in the better side of their splits for our purposes.

Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays (+473, DraftKings)

Drew Rasmussen might not be a name you'd automatically think about targeting for home runs but with no big bumps to hitting conditions based on the outdoor weather, we head indoors to Toronto.

Rasmussen has been efficient in a majority of his starts, he keeps the ball on the ground for the most part, and as mentioned, is generally not a starter you think to target as a home run haven. With that being said, I like the lefty Varsho for the Over on his hits, runs and RBI prop, as well as the home run.

Toronto's lineup saw Rasmussen back on May 5, which was his last start, and racked up seven hits in six innings with three runs scored. The Jays' only home run came from the scorching-hot Kazuma Okamoto. Tonight, I think it's Varsho that could get him, after hitting two "hard-hit" balls off the Rays right-hander last week, both of which registered over 103 mph exit velocity. Each came on four-seam fastballs, which Rasmussen throws over 30% of the time to lefties, and that pitch has yielded three home runs to lefties in 23 innings thus far.

Rasmussen has allowed four home runs to lefties in that time, and a batting average that's 100 points higher than vs. righties. Varsho is still homer-less in May, but that could all change tonight if he can produce another couple of hard-hit balls and get them in the air, thanks to a HR/FB rate over 16% from Rasmussen.

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Pete Alonso, Orioles (+410, FanDuel)

Ryan Weathers returns tonight after he "lost nine pounds and was throwing his guts up" last week after his previous start. He was pushed back from starting this past Thursday because of the illness and while he says he is fine now, I'm wary he may have some lingering weakness with the weight loss.

Even when not sick, he's allowed six home runs and 28 hits to right handed-batters this year in 30 innings. Alonso has been heating up, and even though his numbers against lefties have not been good so far, he does have two home runs off southpaws in a small sample size. I don't think the batting average remains under .200 vs. lefties much longer.

Alonso has four home runs in May already, from a sample size of just 42 plate appearances. Included in that number is a home run off Weathers back on May 2, when he launched a ball 413 feet at an exit velocity above 114 mph.

The Yankees bullpen has been struggling lately, as well, so even if Weathers can avoid the home run ball, the bullpen could still yield something to the Orioles slugger. The weather across the board tonight doesn't make for a great home run environment but it also looks rather neutral so I'm going to take a shot here at better than 4-1.

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