Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 4: Expert backing Cody Bellinger for Monday HR player props

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There are 12 games on the MLB schedule on Monday, May 4 with several high-profile games, headlined by the Cincinnati Reds visiting the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sports fans looking to get into MLB betting, specifically on MLB prop bets like home runs, should see what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is playing on Monday's slate.

Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.

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Here's a look at the players Magliocca is locking in for Monday's games.

Best Home Run picks for Monday

• Cody Bellinger, Yankees (+512)
• Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (+390)
• Michael Busch, Cubs (+330)

Cody Bellinger (+512, DraftKings)

Bellinger narrowly missed a home run in Sunday's game, as the ball smacked off the top of the fence and stayed in play. It would have been his second game in a row with a home run, having hit two out of Yankee Stadium the day prior, so I'm backing him to stay hot on Monday with another one. We also get some of the best hitting weather on today's slate of games in the Bronx, providing a sizable boost to the environment for home run hitting.

Shane Baz has given up more power to the right side of his split over the last couple seasons, but he's been worse overall against lefties. Bellinger has found success in this matchup, as one of the few lefties to hit a bomb against him last year, with a home run that registered at 99 mph exit velocity. Getting to play at home should help the star outfielder too, having hit all five of his home runs in the Bronx thus far. The home run he hit off Baz last year came on the road, but funny enough it was in a ballpark that has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, being that Rays home games were in Steinbrenner Field last year. The ballpark and the weather play to his advantage, so let's see if Bellinger can tag Baz once again!

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Moises Ballesteros (+390, BetMGM) and Michael Busch (+330, BetMGM)

I've got a couple of Cubs I want to take a shot on tonight in what makes for an absolutely great hitting environment for home runs. The most susceptible stadium in baseball for wind effects, Wrigley Field, is seeing a better than 50% boost to home runs on Monday according to sports meteorologist Kevin Roth, thanks to wind blowing out at 15+ mph, and warming temperatures. Rain also potentially rolls in later in the game, bringing the humidity up with it, making for a great hitting situation. It looks like more of a small delay risk than anything else, but something to keep an eye on if you're trying to take an angle on betting this weather.

Ballesteros popped a home run in Sunday's game for the Cubs and now has six in less than 100 plate appearances this year against right-handed pitchers. He's been getting hot of late, with three home runs in the last seven games and the current price near +400 is appealing for a guy that's been hitting near the top of the Cubs order. The only risk when backing Ballesteros is that he's likely to be pinch hit for if a lefty were to come into pitch, and the Reds can deploy a few lefties from the bullpen. I'm bringing my bet down to a quarter of a unit knowing the risks of Ballesteros not playing all game, and would recommend betting the At Bat home run prop when he is up, if you have that option available.

Busch is a lefty that's not likely to be pinch hit for with a lefty coming into the game and he's in a bit of a drought for home runs. He hasn't hit one since April 23, when he smacked a home run in back to back games, which amounted to his only two so far this year. That game was the last time the Cubs played in this type of weather in Wrigley Field, but tonight is even better for home runs, so I'm going back to Busch in this spot to finally hit another one. Chicago is facing Chase Petty, who comes up from Triple-A having turned in a strong six-inning performance before his previous short outing, and he's been serviceable but not great in the minors. Petty has allowed more power to right handed batters, but still gives up the long ball to lefties and we may not even see him for that long in this one based on his performance.

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