Free MLB home run picks, odds, predictions for April 18: Manny Machado among top HR prop bets on Saturday

Kikuchi just gave up two home runs in his last start and has given up at least 23 homers each of the last five years. Right-handed hitters have done very well against him both in his career (.465 SLG) and this year (.525 SLG).  Additionally, Machado is 4-for-10 in his career off the veteran southpaw, with a pair of home runs and a 25% hard-hit rate.

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Matt Olson, Braves (+600, BetMGM)

It may seems strange to target Olson here given the Phillies are starting a left-hander, and one who excels at keeping the ball in the yard in Cristopher Sanchez, but this is a good matchup for Atlanta's star first baseman.

Yes, Sanchez has a 0.5 HR/9 rate over the last three years and has allowed just one long ball this season, but Olson has had the upper hand in this matchup, going 6-for-18 with a pair of home runs off the star southpaw along with a 28% hard-hit rate.

After swatting a league-leading 54 homers in 2023, Olson hit 29 each of the last two years. Yes, those are still respectable power numbers, but they're a far cry from the outburst we saw three years ago. So far in 2026, Olson has already hit five homers in just 20 games, and he has a slugging percentage of .610 with an OPS of 1.004.He's been a huge part of Atlanta's early-season success, and though it may not seem like it at first glance, this could be a spot for Olson to leave the yard, especially in hitter-friendly Philadelphia.

Use the BetMGM bonus code to place home run prop bets like Olson going deep on Saturday.