From wild card to underdog - who will win Championship play-offs?

One of Alex Neil, Tonda Eckert, Kim Hellberg or Sergej Jakirovic will be a Premier League manager by 23 May [Getty Images/Shutterstock]

And now it all comes down to this.

Four clubs are left in the battle for promotion to the Premier League. Only one will experience euphoria. The other three will suffer the agony of just missing out.

The Championship regular season is over with Coventry City and Ipswich Town already up, while the third and final spot will be decided by the play-offs.

With Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Hull City remaining in contention, BBC Sport takes a look who is best-placed to reach the top flight.

• Can stats pick out the Championship play-off winner?

Millwall - The wild card

Millwall reached the final in their past four play-off campaigns, which were in League One, but have gone out in the semi-final in all three of their second-tier play-off appearances [Getty Images]

Position: Third, 83 points (GD +15)

Top scorer: Femi Azeez - 11 goals

Key stat: 41% of Millwall's Championship goals this season came from set-pieces (26/64 - excluding penalties). Only Sheffield Wednesday (48%) and Oxford United (44%) had a higher proportion.

Play-off record: Eight campaigns, two promotions (both in League One in 2010 and 2017).

Last time in second-tier play-offs: 2001-02 - lost 2-1 on aggregate to Birmingham City in the semi-final.

Record v other play-off teams this season: P6 W3 D1 L2

Few would have predicted Millwall to reach the play-offs, let alone challenge for automatic promotion until the final day of the season as they did, finishing just one point behind second-placed Ipswich.

But Alex Neil, who has won promotion via the play-offs twice before as a manager, has done an excellent job with a Lions side who have the best away record in the division and kept the most clean sheets (18).

The wait for this opportunity has been a long one. Margaret Thatcher was prime minister and a 24-year-old Teddy Sheringham was the club's top goalscorer the last time Millwall were in the top flight in 1990.

And you have to go back 24 years for the last time the south London club made it to the second-tier play-offs.

"We're in the play-offs with an unbelievable season but there's still a lot to play for," Neil told BBC Radio London.

"I speak to the players regularly about what we've managed to do and how we've managed to do it, but we're not satisfied, we're never satisfied.

"You want to be the team that gets into the final, you want to be the team to be promoted.

"For this group, what we've done, how we've done it, I think we deserve to have something for our efforts come the end of it, not just a pat on the back and a well done. We're hoping there is still a fairy-tale ending for us."

'Lions are hard nut to crack'

I do favour Millwall to get through the semis – their away form has been absolutely brilliant this season.

They are going to be a real hard nut to crack, very solid defensively, very organised, so for the semis that suits them well.

Going into a final, the big pitch, playing Southampton or Middlesbrough, open and expansive teams, who want to try to control the ball, it is a different dynamic.

• 'I've never been part of a game like it' - how the play-off shootout unfolded

Southampton - The favourite

Southampton are on their longest league unbeaten run since they went 22 games without defeat between September 2023 and February 2024 in the Championship [Getty Images]

Position: Fourth, 80 points (GD +26)

Top scorer: Finn Azaz - 11 goals

Key stat: Since Tonda Eckert's first game in charge of Southampton on 5 November, the Saints won more points (68) and scored more goals (69) than any other side in the Championship.

Play-off record: Two campaigns, one promotion (in 2024).

Last time in second-tier play-offs: 2023-24 - won 1-0 in the final against Leeds United.

Record v other play-off teams this season: P6 W0 D2 L4

Hitting form at the right time is the perfect recipe for success in the play-offs - or at least that is what the old football adage would have you believe. If any club has ever ticked that box, it is Southampton this season.

Saints were 15th and 10 points outside the top six after a 2-1 home defeat to Hull on 17 January.

But 14 wins in a 19-match unbeaten run to end the season helped Eckert's side surge up the table to finish nine points clear of Wrexham in seventh and just four points shy of the Tractor Boys.

Southampton are looking to bounce back to the Premier League at the first time of asking and enter the play-offs as favourites, having spent 12 of the previous 13 seasons before this one dining at the top table.

Despite their impressive form over the past three-and-a-half months, which also included a run to the FA Cup semi-final with wins over Fulham and Arsenal, Eckert was clear about what his side must now do.

"I don't care [about what Southampton have already achieved]," he told BBC Radio Solent.

"It doesn't make a difference. No-one cares in the end if you make it all the way and you don't make the last step.

"We need to make the last step now and we are ready to do that."

'Saints are a different beast now'

Southampton go into the play-offs high on confidence and for good reason.

Saints are the second highest goalscorers overall and have picked up more points than any other team since their young coach, Eckert, stepped in to take his first managerial job.

Over two legs, Eckert's rejuvenated team will back themselves against anyone.

They are a different beast to the team that failed to beat any of the other three play-off contenders earlier on in the regular season.

• Saints will be 'full strength' for play-offs - Eckert

Middlesbrough - The sleeping giant

Middlesbrough's last 11 goals in the regular Championship season were scored by either Tommy Conway (five), Morgan Whittaker (three), pictured centre, or David Strelec (three) [Shutterstock]

Position: Fifth, 80 points (GD +25)

Top scorer: Morgan Whittaker - 14 goals

Key stat: Middlesbrough were promoted to the top flight via the play-offs in the second season they took place (1987-88), beating Chelsea over two legs. Since then, they've been in the second tier play-offs four times without success, reaching the final only once (2014-15).

Play-off record: Five campaigns, one promotion (in 1988).

Last time in second-tier play-offs: 2022-23 - lost 1-0 on aggregate to Coventry City in the semi-final.

Record v other play-off teams this season: P6 W3 D1 L2

Middlesbrough fans will certainly tell you this is a club that belongs in the Premier League. And if Boro do not make it back into the top flight this season for the first time in nine years, there will be plenty of regrets.

As of matchweek 39, Boro had been in the top two for 35 of them. But a seven-game winless streak during the run-in meant automatic promotion slipped away.

Given that previous boss Rob Edwards left for Wolves in November, it is perhaps still a job well done by Kim Hellberg in his first managerial role in English football to finish in the top six.

But for a club that spent 11 consecutive seasons in the Premier League between 1998 and 2009, just one season in the top flight in 17 years since then is somewhat underwhelming.

Hellberg is expecting a "very good game of football" in the semi-final against Southampton and says they are "looking forward to it".

"Two attacking-minded teams, two teams that want to press, two teams that want to play, I think it will be two great games of football," he told BBC Radio Tees.

"I think we've improved the way we've played football all the time, I think we're creating loads of opportunities. We're playing football I'm proud of."

'Boro need renewed vigour'

Middlesbrough go into the play-offs hoping to finish the job after slipping out of the promotion places in the final furlong.

No team spent more time in the Championship's top two this season than the Boro, other than champions Coventry, so they need to shake off any lingering disappointment and set about the play-offs with renewed vigour.

The continued absence of midfield driving force Hayden Hackney is a worry. Boro are a much stronger team when he plays but the improved recent scoring form of Tommy Conway, David Strelec and Morgan Whittaker gives cause for hope.

Southampton are the team everyone wanted to avoid but Boro have proved this season they are not afraid of anyone. It should be a cracker of a semi final.

• 🎧 Will momentum decide the play-offs?

Hull City - The underdog

Oli McBurnie is experiencing the most prolific season of his career, at the age of 29 [Getty Images]

Position: Sixth, 73 points (GD +4)

Top scorer: Oli McBurnie - 17 goals

Key stat: Only Wrexham (12.2) and Derby County (10.9) overperformed their expected goals by a greater margin in the Championship this season than Hull City (10.4), netting 70 goals from an xG of 59.6.

Play-off record: Three campaigns, two promotions (in 2008 and 2016).

Last time in second-tier play-offs: 2015-16 - won 1-0 in the final against Sheffield Wednesday.

Record v other play-off teams this season: P6 W4 D0 L2

It has been quite the turnaround at Hull City.

After avoiding relegation to League One on the final day of last season on goal difference, just 12 months later the Tigers have a shot at winning promotion to the Premier League.

Sergej Jakirovic's side are the underdogs both in terms of where they finished in the table and with the bookies, who give Hull the longest odds of going up.

But the Hull boss is embracing the challenge of trying to become just the seventh side in 37 years of the current second-tier play-off format to go up after finishing sixth - something which has not been done since Blackpool achieved it in 2009-10.

"In my life nothing is easy," Jakirovic told BBC Radio Humberside. "Since I'm a coach, like I said in my first press conference, I'm out of my comfort zone.

"I don't like 'comfort zone' because nothing comes from comfort zone. You have to chase your dreams, your ambitions and then you'll be successful."

Tigers have 'serial winners'

Hull snuck in which is credit to them because they have been written off throughout the season.

They had the hardest game on paper on the final day against a rejuvenated Norwich City so to keep their nerve and get the victory says a lot about the group.

There is vast experience in that squad, serial winners, serial Championship winners, their players have racked up the appearances across that division.

They go into the play-offs with some really strong characters.

• Not luck Hull are in the play-offs - McBurnie

Championship play-off dates

Southampton and Hull City (both three) have won at Wembley more times in their history than Millwall (two) and Middlesbrough (zero) [Getty Images]

Semi-final first leg

• Hull City v Millwall, MKM Stadium - Friday, 8 May (20:00 BST)
• Middlesbrough v Southampton, Riverside Stadium - Saturday, 9 May (12:30 BST)

Semi-final second leg

• Millwall v Hull City, The Den - Monday, 11 May (20:00 BST)
• Southampton v Middlesbrough, St Mary's Stadium - Tuesday, 12 May (20:00 BST)

Final

• Hull City or Millwall v Middlesbrough or Southampton, Wembley Stadium - Saturday, 23 May (kick-off time TBC)

'Saints have momentum and the edge' - analysis

Jobi McAnuff lost in the 2011 Championship play-off final at Wembley with Reading as they were beaten 4-2 by Swansea [Getty Images]

Former Reading, Crystal Palace and Watford winger Jobi McAnuff, a veteran of several play-off campaigns:

Momentum, wherever you finish – whether it is third, fourth, fifth or sixth – is really important. You look at Millwall or Saints this year and they are definitely the two coming into it with that.

Southampton have been fantastic under Tonda Eckert – a 19-game unbeaten run, great FA Cup run as well. So I just have them to beat Middlesbrough over two really good legs.

I cannot see past Millwall against Hull – I think they have a little bit too much in their locker, really difficult to beat and now with that added quality.

In terms of the final, I am going to give the edge to Southampton because of how open and expansive they can make the pitch.

It will be very difficult to argue against Millwall given how well they have done but in terms of the dynamic of the game, I would just nudge towards Southampton.

You can listen to more from McAnuff on the play-off battle on the More Than The Score podcast on BBC Sounds