A first round mock draft has been released, showcasing predictions for team selections. The draft is influenced by insights from league insiders and media sources, despite the prevalence of misleading information.
Key points
First round mock draft predictions released
Influenced by insights from league insiders
Mock drafts often contain misleading information
Fernando Mendoza celebrated for his championship performance
Draft accuracy is often low due to smokescreens
Fernando MendozaCollege Football Playoff National Championship
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (15) smiles as he celebrates after the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (15) smiles as he celebrates after the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
It is that time of season, where people who arenāt draft experts become draft experts and give you their mock drafts. I, too, am one of those people.
I do the best I can with these. I try to talk to people around the league and in the media in other markets to come up with the best assessment I can of what teams are going to do with each pick. The number of smokescreens that are out there is plentiful, and they have burned me in the past, but we persevere.
So here is my first round mock draft, as accurate as I can make it, which is to say, not accurate at all.
The first pick is the obvious pick. Kirk Cousins, in his introductory press conference, mentioned that he thinks Mendoza will be a great addition to the roster. Itās currently the worst-kept secret in the NFL, and the only reason the Raiders donāt submit the pick just five seconds into them being on the clock is that the NFL asks teams with the first pick to give it a good five minutes before you do.
When the Jets canceled their visit with David Bailey, plenty of people reacted on social media. They thought it meant that Bailey had been crossed off the list. Quite the contrary. In my opinion, the Jets have made up their mind and will select the explosive pass rusher that has the highest upside of this edge class.
Q&A
What is a mock draft in college football?
A mock draft is a speculative projection of which players college football teams are likely to select in an upcoming draft.
Who is Fernando Mendoza and why is he mentioned in the mock draft?
Fernando Mendoza is a player from Indiana celebrated for his performance in the College Football Playoff National Championship, highlighting his potential as a draft prospect.
How accurate are mock drafts in predicting NFL draft outcomes?
Mock drafts can vary widely in accuracy due to the presence of smokescreens and changing team needs, making them more speculative than definitive.
When is the NFL draft scheduled to take place?
The NFL draft typically occurs in late April each year, but specific dates can vary.
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I think the Cardinals desperately want to trade down, but I donāt think the Cardinals are going to find someone willing to trade up for Arvell Reese, who presumably would be the target for a team coming up. Iām not even sure Monti Ossenfort or Mike LaFleur wants Love, but Love is the kind of pick that ownership would love. He sells jerseys, he puts butts in the seats, heās a national player that will keep the Cardinals in the national conversation, and sometimes, ownership makes the call.
Iāve heard for weeks that there are two guys on the Titansā radar: Love and Sonny Styles. I canāt seem to get a clean answer as to who they like more, but in this case, it doesnāt matter. Love is off the board, Styles is the kind of playmaker the Titans need on their defense, and they run the card in with this pick to give Robert Salehās defense an important piece.
I think the Giants would love Styles or Love with this pick, but not enough to trade up to get one of them. I think the Giants sit back and know they need to have a more functional offense, and that starts up front. The Giants have taken plenty of swings at the offensive line over the last few years, but John Harbaugh knows how to build a roster, and he will want to make sure his reckless QB is protected.
6. TRADE: Dallas Cowboys: Arvell Reese, Edge/LB, Ohio State
We have our first trade of the draft. The Dallas Cowboys need to beef up their defense, and when Reese fell to six, the Cleveland Browns were looking to trade down, and the Cowboys were ready to trade up. The Cowboys get 6 and pick 39 from Cleveland and send the Browns the 12th and 20th picks. Dallas is able to get the defensive playmaker they need, and they donāt need to lose a pick to do it.
The third Ohio State player comes off the board at number seven. Another interesting situation, Dan Quinn wants his defense to hum, but the Commanders know that they need to make sure Jayden Daniels can get back to his 2024 form. I think the Commanders also make a move for Brandon Aiyuk this offseason and really beef up the targets for Daniels.
The Saints need a WR and help on defense, but there should be more receiver options later in the draft than there will be edges. Iāve heard the Saints love Bain, so it just makes sense to not second-guess it and just take their guy.
Yes, the Chiefs had a bad year, but thereās a reason they are always one of the best teams in the league, and it goes beyond Patrick Mahomes. Itās roster construction. The Chiefs trade a CB for a first-round pick and replace said CB with a cost-controlled one that can step in and potentially be as good as Trent McDuffie.
10. New York Giants: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
There is plenty of buzz that the Giants love Tyson enough to take him at five. I think if Tyson is still sitting here at 10, the Giants would be thrilled with this outcome. Tyson and Malik Nabers will be a lethal combo for Jaxson Dart if they can both be on the field at the same time, and thatās going to be a huge question for Tyson moving forward.
The Dolphins are hitting a hard reset this season after trading away plenty of players and beefing up their draft capital. If you are resetting, you start in the trenches. Fanoās skills match what Bobby Slowik does on offense, and I think it makes sense for them to go offensive line and grab Fano.
12. Cleveland Browns: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Iāve heard the Browns really like Proctor, but taking him at six would be a heck of a stretch. When the Cowboys come calling, the Browns are thrilled. Proctor at 12 makes a lot of sense as the Browns work to build up their offense to pair with the stout defense.
I think the Rams would love to trade back here, but the Lions hang up the phone now that a few tackles have gone off the board, so the Rams need to sit and pick. Sadiq is the kind of guy that Sean McVay would love to utilize in his offense, and he certainly wonāt complain if this is the direction they need to go.
The Ravens need some help in their interior offensive line, especially after Tyler Linderbaum headed to Las Vegas. Ioane is one of the best players in the draft, and the Ravens are thrilled that heās available for them at 14. It just makes too much sense.
If Mesidor were 2 or 3 years younger, he would be a top 5 pick in my opinion. But heās an older prospect that teams donāt usually look for in the first round. The Bucs have a defensive-minded coach who is desperate to save his job. Heās not looking for a ceiling; heās looking for immediate production at a position of need, and Mesidor fits the mold.
Mel Kiper has been screaming. Social media is abuzz. Why isnāt anyone taking Caleb Downs? I havenāt heard that Downs will drop in the draft, but I have heard that the Downs love is inconsistent with teams. Downs may not be as versatile in some of the schemes being run in 2026, but heās a game-wrecker when heās at the line of scrimmage. The Jets are thrilled to add someone who can make big-time plays to their defense with this pick.
The Lions need to start reworking their offensive line a little bit, so why not start at tackle? Pairing Freeling with Penei Sewell on a cost-controlled rookie contract for 5 years. Having two great tackles so Goff can operate cleanly in the pocket is critical for this offense.
If you ask everyone who is even remotely connected to the NFL, theyāll tell you that Dillon Thieneman is going to the Vikings at 18. Some are calling it almost as bad a kept secret as Mendoza to the Raiders. Iām going to put him here because the entire league seems to think it will happen, but when itās this loud, itās usually a smokescreen. Thieneman here could be very much what the Vikings want the Panthers, who also like Thieneman, to trade up to, hoping the player they want falls to them. Who knows, but Iāll go with what Iām hearing.
19. Carolina Panthers: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
The Panthers love Sadiq, but heās off the board. Thereās been rumblings about Thieneman as well, but heās also off the board. They need more weapons for Bryce Young. Lemon is exactly that, the Panthers have to take the best skill position player on the board, and itās easily Lemon at this point.
20. Cleveland Browns: Omar Cooper, WR, Indiana
The Browns have already added some beef up front, and now they add a legitimate weapon to their receiving core. Cooper was Mendozaās favorite target at Indiana and made a ridiculous catch against Penn State that Gus Johnsonās voice is still trying to recover from. The Browns, if they ever figure out quarterback, seem to be putting together a legitimate roster.
The Steelers have been really focused on trying to build a young, stout offensive line, but they got some really unfortunate news regarding LT Broderick Jones. Miller is an RT, but I think the Steelers can move Fautanu to the left side, take Miller, and make sure they have a strong offensive line. If you have a quarterback in your 40s (and who knows what that enigma will do), you canāt have a questionable tackle with a bad neck. Miller is the play.
The Chargers need some help across the defensive front. Itās Khalil Mack and a bunch of questions. They signed Dalvin Tomlinson, not that heās a long-term answer, but Woods makes more sense than Kayden McDonald for the Chargers. The Chargers will bet on Woodsā upside and hope that the struggles in 2025 were just a fluke and not a trend.
Howie Roseman loves taking trenches in round 1 and does it often. The Eaglesā offensive line is old and needs to be recharged, and taking a guy like Iheanachor, who can learn from a guy like Lane Johnson and help him develop, is the perfect move for the Eagles.
24. Cleveland Browns: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
There are a lot of concerns about McCoyās knee, and if there werenāt any, he would probably have gone 10 picks earlier, but the Browns, with their THIRD first-round pick, think itās worth the risk to bet that the knee is healthy and they get a steal of a talent this late in the first round.
Iāve heard some conflicting info on Parker. Iāve heard the Bears donāt like him, and Iāve heard the Bears are really hoping heās there at 25 for them to take. Welcome to lying season! Of the other options here, Emmanuel Warren-McNeil fills a need at safety, but I think Downs and Thieneman are better fits, and the Bears will look elsewhere. Caleb Lomu could be an option here as well, as heās the only first-round offensive tackle left, but the way the board broke, there are quite a few options at edge. Parker, as well as guys like Keldric Faulk and Zion Young. Thereās always a chance for a cornerback here with Colton Hood and Chris Johnson available. But if this is the board, it would not shock me at all if Lomu is the pick, but in the end, I think the Bears go Edge.
There are a few different directions that Buffalo could go, but Faulk is a guy who probably wonāt be a huge success as a rookie; he will need some time to develop. The Bills could use a younger, developing edge behind Bradley Chubb and Greg Rousseau, and it certainly doesnāt feel like Landon Jackson is that guy.
Kyle Shanahan has been revamping his offense on the fly a little bit, and Trent Williams isnāt going to be around forever. They need a new anchor of the offensive line, which, as we know, is so critical to Shanahanās offensive scheme. The line hasnāt been as strong as it has been in the past, and Lomu can help start putting their line back towards the top of the league.
This might be a bit of a reach for the Texans in round 1, and Iāve heard plenty of people believe the Texans will add more to their defensive line, but why? I understand they could use some youth at defensive tackle, so perhaps you take a Kayden McDonald here, but the Texans need help across the offensive line, and they just need to make sure they take a sure thing like Bisontis.
29. TRADE: Arizona Cardinals: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
The Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock, and they are looking for a wide receiver, but with guys like KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston still on the board, they feel comfortable trading down with Arizona, which wants to jump into round one and grab their future QB in Ty Simpson. The Chiefs pick up the Cardinalsā 4th round pick and drop back to 34, the Cardinals grab the Crimson Tide QB.
30. Miami Dolphins: Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
The Dolphins need to add cornerstone pieces to both sides of the ball. After going with the offensive line with their first pick of the first round, they move over to the defensive side of the ball and grab a cornerback who is big, tough, and can hopefully be the kind of lockdown corner the Dolphins need as they rebuild their defense.
The Patriots could certainly go offense with this pick, but Young has been a guy who has been steadily climbing the draft boards since the combine, and thereās certainly a need here for a guy like Young to come off the edge and make a mark on this defense.
I donāt think the Seahawks take Price at 32, but we are going to mock it to them anyway. I think, ideally, the Seahawks would like to trade back in the second round, and they would love to take Price there, but if the Cardinals or another team came up to grab Simpson, Iām not sure that another team is going to try to move up into round 1 for another player. If the Seahawks are stuck, I will guess they go another route, but they seem to be pretty hot on Price, so we will make that the selection.
Notable names that arenāt drafted in round 1:
Emmanuel McNeil- Warren, S, Toledo: He could go in the mid-teens, but with a solid safety class that will have plenty of names in round 2, I think he takes a tumble as teams think they can wait on safety.
Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee: Certainly a guy that many teams will consider in the 20s, Iāve seen him mocked in the early teens as well. I think thatās crazy, but it shows how wide the predictions range this year.
Denzel Boston, WR, Washington: I really do expect Boston to go in round 1, and I almost mocked him to a few different teams but decided, in the end, that they go another direction.
KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M: Maybe itās just my bias here, but I donāt see Concepcion as a first-round player. He drops a lot of passes, and heās undersized. He has blazing speed, but Iām just not sure heās the best guy to grab in round 1.
Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M: Howell has the potential to be an elite NFL player. When he wins on pass rushes, he WINS. But he seems to take plays off and doesnāt play great against the run. Too many things are going against him for him to land in round 1.
Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State: McDonald is a guy I almost mocked a couple of different times, but with his lack of pass-rushing skills, I think the dominant run stuffer goes early in round 2.
Malachai Lawrence, Edge, UCF: I like Lawrence and think he has a chance to be an excellent player in the NFL Draft. I think he has some inconsistent tape, and I think he has some things he needs to work out as a run stopper that pushes him to round 2.
Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech: If this were 30 years ago, I think Rodriguez might be a top 10 pick. The guy is an animal at the line of scrimmage and a great run stopper. Struggled in pass coverage for me, and I was constantly chasing in man coverage. I think heās a second-round guy.