The NFL draft is approaching, with the Las Vegas Raiders expected to select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall. After Mendoza, the draft's top-10 picks remain uncertain and could lead to surprises.
Key points
Las Vegas Raiders expected to select Fernando Mendoza first overall
NFL draft reporting is challenging due to secrecy
Top-10 picks after Mendoza are uncertain
Teams may provide misleading information
Las Vegas RaidersFernando Mendoza
The NFL draft is a difficult reporting project. You spend hours and days and weeks on the phone and know for a fact that some people -- maybe most of them -- aren't telling you the truth. Teams want to keep their plans and their evaluations as secret as possible at this time of year while also floating information and scenarios to throw off the competition.
So, by the time it's the day before the draft and you sit down to write up your best information, it's pretty scary. I'm here to tell you the stuff I feel best about, but I do so with full confidence that some parts of it won't turn out to be correct. One thing can completely shake up the first round.
We can feel 100% sure the Las Vegas Raiders are taking Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. They've been set on that for a long time, and by the time the pick is in Thursday night, it will be a formality. After that, the mystery begins. And that's where I want to start.
I don't have a mock draft for you. I feel confident you can find plenty of them if that's what you want. But here are some of the things I've been hearing about how the 2026 draft might play out, starting once Mendoza has his Raiders hat on and the Jets are on the clock.
Everything I've been told since the latter part of last week leads me to believe the Jets will select Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese with the second pick in the draft.
For the longest time, it has felt as if the Jets were deciding between Reese and Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, and I recognize that some draft analysts have predicted Bailey here. Reese versus Bailey has been a topic of debate in the Jets' building. But ever since Bailey's planned visit to the Jets got canceled last week, people I trust in the league have told me they think the Jets have settled on Reese. He can help them immediately as an off-ball linebacker even if he needs time to develop into a high-level edge rusher (and he might not even need that time).
OK, so then what happens at Nos. 3 and 4?
Once the Jets make their pick -- be it Reese or Bailey -- the Cardinals hope to have options at No. 3. It's widely known around the league the Cardinals would prefer to trade down from that spot. If the Jets take Reese and there's a team out there such as, say, the Chiefs at No. 9 that wants to make a big move up for Bailey, a deal could come together that could net Arizona extra picks. If there's a team out there that wants to come up to No. 3 for Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, the Cardinals would listen.
If there's no deal for the third pick, I believe -- like my colleague Adam Schefter suggested is a possibility on Monday -- the Cardinals would draft Love.
It would feel like a weird pick for Arizona, which has around $11 million in cap space already committed to a running back room that includes James Conner, newly signedTyler Allgeier, Trey Benson and Bam Knight. But there's a widely held belief around the league that Love is the best player in this class, and he's going to be tempting for teams picking up high. The Raiders aren't taking Love because they're selecting Mendoza and they draftedAshton Jeanty last year. The Jets aren't taking Love because they already have Breece Hall on a $14.3 million franchise tag. But starting at No. 3, the interest in Love will intensify -- and that includes interest from the team currently with the pick.
I have been told the Titans also would like to trade down from No. 4; but if they can't, the pick is likely to be an edge rusher or a wide receiver. So, if Bailey is still on the board at No. 4, he'd be a strong candidate to go to Tennessee. If not, I expect the Titans to either trade down or take whichever wideout (Ohio State's Carnell Tate or Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson) they have ranked the highest.
What is the Giants' plan for their two picks?
Following [Saturday's trade](/nfl/story/_/id/42465339/inside-improbable-new-york-giants-cincinnati-bengals-dexter-lawrence-trade) of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II to the Bengals, the Giants now hold the No. 5 and No. 10 picks. This enables them to be nimble and trade up or down as the situation dictates. But if they stay put at No. 5, my information indicates their most likely picks would be Love (if he's still there) or Ohio State safety Caleb Downs. Multiple people have told me they believe Downs would be the Giants' pick even ahead of linebacker Sonny Styles, Downs' college teammate. And I know the Giants like Tyson, but most of the people I've spoken to the past couple of days think the Giants would be more likely to wait and try to take him at No. 10.
If the Giants take Downs at No. 5 and Tyson isn't the pick at No. 10, I'd lean toward New York selecting an offensive lineman with that second selection. In that case, the leading possibilities are Utah tackle Spencer Fano or even Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane. If Love is the pick at No. 5, I'd expect the Giants to go defense at No. 10 (maybe Downs is still there?) or trade down.
Will the Browns be at a pivot point at No. 6?
It seems as if everyone knows the analytics-driven Browns would love to trade down from No. 6. Many people I've spoken with believe there will be teams interested in moving up to that spot to get ahead of the Commanders, who pick at No. 7 and are believed to have their eyes on Styles, Downs, Tate and Love. I doubt the Cowboys would come all the way up from No. 12 (more on them in a minute), but the Chiefs (No. 9), Giants (No. 10), Dolphins (No. 11) and Rams (No. 13) are candidates to move up if they're worried about landing their preferred targets.
Cleveland wants to come out of the first round with an offensive tackle and a wide receiver. The Browns select again at No. 24 thanks to last year's draft-day trade with Jacksonville, and they could maneuver any number of ways to make sure they land both positions.
Could the Rams be a wild card?
Let's skip a few picks and go with the Rams, who hold the No. 13 pick as a result of last year's trade with Atlanta. They traded their own first-rounder, No. 29, to the Chiefs for cornerback Trent McDuffie. So, No. 13 is the Rams' only pick in the top 60 selections. They haven't made a pick that high since 2016, when they traded up to take quarterback Jared Goff at No. 1, so there isn't a lot on which to base a prediction of what they'll do with this pick. They appear to have a loaded roster and not a ton of immediate needs.
Most mock drafts seem to have the Rams taking a wide receiver, but the last wideout they took in the first round was Tavon Austin in 2013. In the meantime, they've established a good track record of finding wide receivers in later rounds -- Cooper Kupp in the third, Josh Reynolds in the fourth, Puka Nacua in the fifth. You get the idea.
So, if the Rams think they can find the impact receiver in the second round or later, what do they do in the first? Could be anything. Some people are even watching to see if they make a big move up for Love, who would be a very exciting cherry on top of their offensive sundae. There's always the chance they trade down the way they did last year.
And then there's the Ty Simpson factor. The Rams have been connected to the Alabama quarterback in league circles for a while now. It's an open secret that they like him. When they still had the No. 29 pick, they seemed like the team to watch for Simpson. But since No. 13 feels too soon to take him, that talk has quieted down. Now, many wonder if Simpson could tumble out of the first round entirely.
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Ty Simpson's NFL draft profile
Check out some of the top highlights from Alabama's Ty Simpson.
But as I said, the Rams don't appear to have any crying needs for which the 13th pick could help them in their effort to win the Super Bowl at home. So, could they trade down from No. 13 and still take Simpson later in the round? Possibly. Could they just bite the bullet and take Simpson at No. 13 if they like him that much? Unlikely, but again, this is a tough team to predict.
If the Rams take Simpson in the first round, they're likely to face criticism for not finding immediate help for a win-now team with 38-year-old reigning MVPMatthew Stafford at quarterback. But would they care? This is the "F--- them picks" franchise, remember? If they truly believe Simpson has the potential to be Stafford's successor, I don't think it's ridiculous to think they could go ahead and take him.
Add in that division-rival Arizona -- which many believe is the real team to watch for Simpson -- holds the 34th pick and would be a candidate to either draft him there or trade back into the first round to land him and it makes the Rams/Simpson theories a little bit spicier.
What will the Cowboys do with two first-rounders?
While it's fun to imagine team owner Jerry Jones going all Leeroy Jenkins and trading way up to get one of the big stars, that just isn't the way the Cowboys actually draft. They haven't traded up in the first round since 2012 (for Morris Claiborne). They've been one of the most disciplined and successful drafting teams of the past decade and longer. They have pick No. 12, which is their own, and pick No. 20, which is one they got from the Packers in the Micah Parsonstrade.
What I am told is that the Cowboys do not want to trade both No. 12 and No. 20 to move up for just one player. A small move up from No. 12 that doesn't involve No. 20 seems possible if they feel like one of their preferred targets is within range. But going all the way up into the top five or six picks doesn't sound to me like what they want to do.
I would actually say it's more likely the Cowboys trade down from No. 20 than up from No. 12. They need a ton of help on defense and would love it if Styles, Downs or LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane fell to them at No. 12; they could get to work addressing the other positional needs at No. 20 and later. Dallas also doesn't have a second-round pick (it belongs to the Jets from the Quinnen Williamstrade), which is why I've been told to watch out for the Cowboys to trade down from No. 20 to try to recoup some Day 2 capital.
What can these top Ohio State prospects bring?
I spoke Tuesday with Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who will be in attendance at the draft Thursday night to celebrate with all of the Buckeyes prospects expected to go in the first round. Unsurprisingly, he talked up all of his guys. He told me Reese is fully capable of being an instant-impact edge rusher or an off-ball linebacker right away -- that is, the fact he wasn't asked to rush the passer a ton in college doesn't mean he can't do it at a high level in the pros next season. And Patricia told me drafting Styles would mean "having the middle of your defense set for the next 15 years, having a face of the franchise, all of it."
But there were two things Patricia told me about Downs that jumped out, as I hadn't heard them before.
"First, he's the best punt returner in the draft," Patricia said, noting the Buckeyes didn't ask Downs to return punts last year but that he scored on a punt return in 2024 and did the same with Alabama in 2023.
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Caleb Downs throws up peace sign as he returns punt for 85-yard TD
Alabama's Caleb Downs returns Chattanooga's punt 85 yards to the house for a touchdown.
Patricia also said Downs has more ability to play the slot defender role than his usage by the Buckeyes in 2025 indicates. Patricia pointed to their 20-13 win over Penn State in 2024, when Downs covered eventual first-round tight end Tyler Warren and held him to just four catches for 47 yards.
Miscellaneous nuggets
I'm predicting at least seven and as many as 10 offensive linemen get picked in the first round. There's a late-round zone loaded with teams that would love to come out of Thursday night with a new offensive lineman, including the Lions, Panthers, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles, Browns, Bears, 49ers, Chiefs and Patriots. Kansas City could even use its No. 9 pick on an offensive tackle and no one would be surprised. Baltimore could take Ioane at No. 14, if he's there.
Miami's Francis Mauigoa has long been expected to be the first offensive lineman selected, and he still could be. But he has a herniated disc in his back, which is worrying some teams. I'm not predicting a huge drop from Mauigoa, but it wouldn't surprise me if Fano or even Ioane went ahead of him.
I wouldn't be shocked to see the Super Bowl champion Seahawks select the other Notre Dame running back, Jadarian Price, with the No. 32 pick. They took Kenneth Walker III with the 41st pick in 2022 and Zach Charbonnet with the 52nd in 2023. Walker is now with the Chiefs, and Charbonnet is recovering from a major knee injury, so the need is there. But the safer bet is Seattle trading down from that pick with a team looking to secure a fifth-year option on a player it likes. The Seahawks have only four picks, and general manager John Schneider has a long history of moving down and adding to his trove as the draft progresses.
I've heard there's a chance Tennessee's Colton Hood could be the second cornerback taken, behind Delane and ahead of Volunteers teammate Jermod McCoy. There are teams wary of the condition of McCoy's knee and could shy away. Multiple people have compared it to former Michigan cornerback Will Johnson's situation last year, as he was a first-round talent who fell into Day 2 due to health concerns. Johnson ended up playing well as a rookie for the Cardinals anyway.
