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The Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks in their regular-season finale, aiming to enhance their Play-In seeding. Many star players may rest, leading to a prediction of the Under for the game.
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The Miami Heat will try to improve their Play-In seeding tonight as they host the Atlanta Hawks in the regular-season finale for both teams.
With many star players likely prioritizing rest over winning, I’m taking the Under in my Hawks vs. Heat predictions.
Keep reading to see how I’m approaching tonight’s game with my free NBA picks for Sunday, April 12.
Both teams have clinched a spot in the postseason — albeit in the Play-In tournament for the Miami Heat — and that will influence how each coach approaches tonight's regular-season finale.
For the Atlanta Hawks, the injury report suggests we won't see many of their biggest stars, as Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jonathan Kuminga, Onyeka Okongwu, and CJ McCollum are all listed as questionable.
Chances are, we’ll see someone from that list on the court. However, I seriously doubt they’ll play anywhere near their normal allotment of minutes as Atlanta prioritizes staying healthy for the postseason.
Fewer players are being held out for Miami, which makes sense, as the Heat are still playing for home-court advantage in their first Play-In game. Still, it remains to be seen just how much we’ll see Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, and others.
Considering all the absences and the players likely to be limited, this game will lose a lot of scoring punch. It’s especially a problem for Atlanta, as it'll be without many of its top playmakers against a Heat team prepping some different defensive looks ahead of the playoffs.
In three head-to-head matchups this year, these teams haven’t combined for more than 242 points, and the most recent matchup ended up with a 225-point total.
While nearly the entire Hawks lineup is listed as questionable, the Heat will likely deploy many of their key players, including Herro (who is listed as available).
That makes me favor Miami to cover.
While I’m still staying away from their biggest stars for the most part tonight, I’ll take Jaime Jaquez Jr. (15.2 points per game) to score Over 13.5 points, something he’s done in eight of his last nine games.
For a long shot SGP, I’m going to bump Jaquez up to go Over 23.5 PRA, which he’s done in six of his last eight games, and to hit Over 1.5 threes after doing so eight times in 10 contests. Herro is also an excellent pick to hit his made threes prop, as he’s drained Over 2.5 shots from deep in four of his last five games.
The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.59 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Sunday, April 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Southeast Atlanta, FDSN Sun |
Not intended for use in MA.
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The game is crucial for the Miami Heat as they seek to improve their Play-In seeding.
Many star players from both teams are expected to prioritize rest over winning in this matchup.
The prediction suggests taking the Under for the game due to the likelihood of star players resting.
The regular-season finale between the Hawks and Heat is scheduled for tonight, April 12.

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