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Here's how many players are actually locks to go in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft
TL;DR
The 2026 NFL Draft is approaching, with discussions on which players are considered first-round locks. Notable prospects include a pass rusher expected to be a top three pick and a star running back, while only one quarterback may be selected on opening night.
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The 2026 NFL Draft is now less than two weeks away. This may not be the most elite class in draft history, but it's fascinating for a number of different reasons. There is a pass rusher that played more linebacker in college that is expected to be a top three pick, there's a star running back that could be the next Jahmyr Gibbs, but how high he's selected remains to be seen, and this could be a draft where just one quarterback is selected on opening night.
Every year there are players that are considered "first-round locks." Legitimate talent that will be instant-impact players or immediate starters that numerous teams are excited about. However, not every player selected in the top 32 are considered "blue chip talents." So how many first-round locks are there in this 2026 class?
Below, we will go position by position and break down players that are locks to go in the first round. When we say "lock," we mean that we are betting everything on these players being selected on opening night. Not a player who has an 80% chance of being drafted in the top 32. Unless, of course, NFL teams have flagged something medical-related with the prospect that we don't know about. With that being said, let's begin with the quarterbacks.
[2026 NFL mock draft: Two top-five curveballs, plus a team trades back into Round 1 for Ty Simpson
Jordan Dajani
QB (1)
IND • QB • #15
The No. 1 overall prospect in this class and reigning Heisman Trophy winner led the Indiana Hoosiers to an undefeated season that was capped by a National Championship. Even if you don't think Fernando Mendoza is Joe Burrow, he's a college football legend who is a lock to go on opening night. DraftKings Sportsbook has him listed at -20000 to go No. 1 overall.
RB (1)
ND • RB • #4
Some believe Jeremiyah Love is the top player in this class. The problem is that he plays running back, which could cause him to fall out of the top five. The Doak Walker Award winner led the FBS with eight plays of 20+ yards gained, and is a threat to score from virtually anywhere on the field. DraftKings has him listed at -1400 to be a top 10 pick. Lock.
WR (2)
OHIOST • WR • #17
Carnell Tate should be the first wide receiver off the board this month. He racked up 838 yards receiving and nine touchdowns in 2025, and led the FBS with six touchdowns on throws of 30 or more air yards. He's not a "burner" necessarily, but does separate downfield with good route running and is a clear deep-ball threat.
USC • WR • #6
Yes he's a "slot merchant," but Makai Lemon is an immediate-impact player that could really shine in the right system. The reigning Biletnikoff Award winner had four games last season where he exploded for 150 yards and a touchdown, including against Iowa. Lemon is going in the first round, but it remains to be seen where.
TE (1)
OREG • TE • #18
The top tight end in this class ranked first among FBS tight ends in receiving touchdowns last year with eight, and fifth in receptions with 51. Tight ends aren't supposed to run 4.39 40-yard dashes, but Kenyon Sadiq is that kind of playmaker that will immediately help any offense.
OL (7)
MIAMI • OT • #61
The three-year starter at right tackle for Miami is durable and consistent in both run-blocking and pass protection, which is why he's commonly mocked as the top offensive lineman off the board. DraftKings has Francis Mauigoa listed at -300 to be the first offensive lineman to hear his name called this month.
UTAH • OT • #55
Spencer Fano won the Outland Trophy as the nation's top interior offensive lineman last season, but he can play basically anywhere on the offensive line -- including tackle. Fano allowed zero sacks in 2025, and three total sacks during three seasons at Utah.
BAMA • OT • #74
Kadyn Proctor is actually CBS Sports' top-ranked offensive tackle and No. 4 overall prospect. I would argue that he's not the most polished prospect, but Proctor's athleticism and 6-foot-7, 350-pound frame are hard to ignore.
UTAH • OT • #71
Another Utah offensive lineman here. Caleb Lomu played left tackle for the Utes and showed he can move at a high level in space. He probably needs to add some mass at 6-foot-6, 300 pounds, but he's expected to go somewhere in the first round. DraftKings has him listed at -700 to be selected on opening night.
UGA • OT • #57
Georgia's left tackle has been mocked as high as No. 6 overall to the Cleveland Browns. I don't think he's the most Day 1-ready offensive tackle in this class, but pundits speculate Monroe Freeling could have the highest ceiling as a true left tackle.
CLEM • OT • #78
A three-time All-ACC right tackle, Blake Miller is -900 to be selected in the first round, according to DraftKings. He's actually the Clemson record-holder for snaps from scrimmage with 3,778 in 54 starts.
PSU • IOL • #71
Vega Ioane is arguably the top interior offensive lineman in this class, and he allowed zero sacks, zero QB hits and just four pressures this past season. Is he a natural fit for the Baltimore Ravens at No. 14 overall?
DT (0)
EDGE (3)
TXTECH • EDGE • #31
David Bailey is probably going No. 2 or No. 3 overall. In an EDGE class that features several different flavors, Bailey is probably the best "pure pass rusher." He ranked second in the FBS in pressures (81), tied for first in sacks (14.5) and registered a whopping 38 QB hits. That tied for the most QB hits in a single season in the FBS over the last decade.
MIAMI • EDGE • #4
Rueben Bain Jr. appears to be falling down mock draft boards a bit, but DraftKings still has him listed at -320 to be a top 10 pick. CBS Sports ranks him as the No. 2 overall prospect in this class and compares him to Dwight Freeney. Bain famously has short arms, but his power is evident. No FBS player recorded more pressures than him in 2025 (83).
OHIOST • EDGE • #8
Arvell Reese played primarily off the ball at Ohio State, but many project him to move to EDGE at the next level. He ranked top three on a loaded Buckeyes defense in tackles, sacks, and tackles for loss, and tore up the combine with his fluid on-field work and a 4.46 40-yard dash. Some draft experts would say Reese has the highest ceiling of any pass rusher in this class, and DraftKings has him listed at -1400 to be a top five pick.
LB (1)
OHIOST • LB
If you want to draft Fred Warner, here's your chance. Sonny Styles is -1400 to be a top 10 pick over at DraftKings, and is arguably a top five talent on big boards. He's a former safety that brings coverage skills and speed to the linebacker position, but is a fantastic tackler as well.
CB (2)
LSU • CB • #4
Mansoor Delane is -330 to be a top 10 pick at DraftKings. He's fluid in both man coverage and zone, and allowed zero touchdowns with zero penalties last season. At times, I thought he was an NFL player going undercover as a college cornerback.
TENN • CB • #3
Jermod McCoy is CB1 to some evaluators despite not playing a single snap last year. McCoy tore his ACL in January 2025, and prioritized his recovery. His 2024 season was fantastic, as McCoy recorded 44 tackles, nine passes defensed and four interceptions. There were concerns about his stock, but McCoy appeared to eliminate those concerns after an impressive Pro Day in Knoxville.
S (2)
OHIOST • S • #2
An easy lock. The best safety in college football is the only defensive back to record 250 tackles, 15 tackles for loss and five interceptions over the past three seasons. Caleb Downs leaves Ohio State a two-time Unanimous All-American and Jim Thorpe Award winner.
OREG • S • #31
I imagine there's a lot of love for Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman behind the scenes. He recorded six interceptions as a freshman at Purdue, then two years later transferred to Oregon and recorded 96 tackles, five passes defensed and two interceptions while picking up First Team All-Big Ten honors. Thieneman is aggressive in both pass coverage and in defending the run. His 306 tackles over the last three seasons rank No. 1 among all defensive backs.
Final first-round lock board (20)
| Position | Player | School |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Fernando Mendoza | Indiana |
| RB | Jeremiyah Love | Notre Dame |
| WR | Carnell Tate | Ohio State |
| WR | Makai Lemon | USC |
| TE | Kenyon Sadiq | Oregon |
| OL | Francis Mauigoa | Miami |
| OL | Spencer Fano | Utah |
| OL | Kadyn Proctor | Alabama |
| OL | Caleb Lomu | Utah |
| OL | Monroe Freeling | Georgia |
| OL | Blake Miller | Clemson |
| OL | Olaivavega Ioane | Penn State |
| EDGE | David Bailey |
Players that were close, but didn't make the cut as a 'lock'
ARIZST • WR
Odds to be selected in the first round: (Not listed)
Jordyn Tyson will probably be the third wide receiver off the board in the first round, and that's because of injury concerns. He's actually holding a workout for NFL teams six days before the draft begins to prove he's healthy. If that workout goes poorly or he re-injures his hamstring, Tyson could fall.
IND • WR • #3
TXAM • WR • #7
Cooper's odds to be selected in the first round: -1600
Concepcion's odds to be selected in the first round: -350
Both of these wideouts are likely to be selected in the first round, but it may come in the late 20s. Depending on how the board falls, could either Cooper or Concepcion be selected before the other, and that other pass-catcher fall to the second round? It's possible.
AUBURN • EDGE • #15
Odds to be selected in the first round: -900
Keldric Faulk is a player I think NFL teams are a lot more high on than fans. He's a 20-year-old, 6-foot-6, 276-pound pass rusher with long arms, but recorded just 29 tackles and two sacks last year.
MIAMI • EDGE • #3
Odds to be selected in the first round: -550
Akheem Mesidor is absolutely a first-round talent, but he's 25-years-old.
ARIZST • OT • #58
Odds to be selected in the first round: -270
I have Max Iheanachor going in the first round, but he's a raw athlete that didn't start playing football until junior college around five years ago.
Q&A
Who are the top prospects expected to be first-round locks in the 2026 NFL Draft?
The top prospects include a pass rusher likely to be a top three pick and a star running back compared to Jahmyr Gibbs.
How many quarterbacks are projected to be selected in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Only one quarterback is expected to be selected on opening night of the 2026 NFL Draft.
What defines a player as a 'first-round lock' in the NFL Draft?
A 'first-round lock' is a player considered to be a guaranteed selection in the top 32, typically seen as an instant-impact talent or immediate starter.
Why is the 2026 NFL Draft considered less elite compared to previous years?
The 2026 NFL Draft is viewed as less elite due to the overall talent level of the class, which lacks multiple blue chip prospects.
