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The Detroit Pistons are down 3-1 in their playoff series against the Orlando Magic, facing a historic challenge. Historically, only 5.6% of teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA.
If history is any indication, the Detroit Pistons' odds of overcoming a 3-1 series deficit are pretty low.
But they're not at zero.
The 1-seed Pistons find themselves down 3-1 vs the Orlando Magic in the first-round series, one loss away from a historic defeat to the 8-seed Magic.
There have been 298 NBA teams to own a 3-1 series lead, with 285 of them (95.6%) winning the series, entering these playoffs.
Detroit lost 94-88 on Monday in Game 4 at Orlando.
Thirteen teams (4.4%) that were down 3-1 in a series ended up winning, with four happening since 2016 (though none since 2020). Those aren't great odds for the 2026 Pistons.
However, a 1-seed Pistons team in the same exact situation as this year's Pistons pulled off one of
Here is the list of the 13 teams who overcame the odds.
Historically, 285 out of 298 NBA teams with a 3-1 series lead have won the series, indicating a low likelihood of comeback.
The teams involved are the Detroit Pistons, the 1-seed, and the Orlando Magic, the 8-seed.
A loss would mark a historic defeat for the Pistons, as they would be the first 1-seed to lose to an 8-seed after being up 3-1.
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The 2003 Pistons are the only 1-seed to have ever overcome a 3-1 deficit against an 8-seed, doing it against the Magic.
The 2020 Denver Nuggets are the only team to have won two series in the same playoffs after being down 3-1 in both series.
No NBA playoff team has ever won a series after being down 3-0.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Pistons' odds of down 3-1 comeback vs Magic in NBA playoffs