Here’s MMAmania.com’s MVP MMA 1 betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

Last week’s recap: And we’re back in the winner’s circle as Grant Dawson scored a win at UFC 328 by submitting Mateusz Rebecki.

So, let’s keep rolling below:

Instead of doing a UFC weekend lock since I started this series, I’ve decided to go with the mega Netflix card because, honestly, I’m looking forward to it much more — and with that being said, I’m taking Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry to go over 2.5 rounds at -210.

Here’s why:

At first glance, betting the over in a Diaz or Perry fight sounds insane. These are two of the most violent personalities in combat sports. But once you dig into their styles and histories, the over actually makes a ton of sense.

Neither man is a true one-punch knockout artist. Perry hits hard, sure, but his game has always been more about pressure, attrition, and accumulating damage than instantly flatlining opponents. Diaz is even more obvious in that regard. He overwhelms fighters with volume, cardio, and durability — not explosive power.

And durability is the keyword here. Diaz has spent the better part of two decades eating shots from elite-level strikers and somehow continuing to march forward. Perry is similarly absurdly tough. The guy built an entire second act of his career in bare-knuckle fighting by simply refusing to break.

Another major factor: neither guy has competed in MMA in several years. Diaz’s last MMA fight was against Tony Ferguson in 2022 (watch highlights), and Perry last fought in MMA against Daniel Rodriguez in 2021.

Ring rust can often create slower starts, more cautious pacing, and longer feeling-out processes — especially in a matchup where both veterans know exactly how dangerous the other can be in chaotic exchanges. Don’t expect either fighter to sprint recklessly into danger immediately — well, maybe Perry will.

Stylistically, this also feels like a classic “blood-and-guts war” rather than a quick finish. Diaz loves to drag fights into deep waters and weaponize pace. Perry thrives in ugly, grinding exchanges. That combination often leads to extended violence rather than sudden endings.

Even if somebody gets hurt early, both men are historically difficult to put away cleanly. Their reputations were built on surviving wars, not ending them in 90 seconds.

What could go wrong?

The obvious danger is mileage. Both fighters have absorbed years of punishment, and eventually durability fades. Perry’s aggression could overwhelm Diaz early, or Diaz’s accumulation game could finally crack Perry faster than expected. There’s also always chaos when two longtime brawlers collide.

Still, given their styles, toughness, and tendency to engage in drawn-out wars, Diaz vs. Perry over 2.5 rounds (-210) looks like one of the safest plays on the MVP MMA 1 card.

Nate Diaz To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1100
Nate Diaz To Win By Submission: +450
Nate Diaz To Win By Decision: +550
Mike Perry To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +185
Mike Perry by Submission: +2500
Mike Perry To Win By Decision: +165

To checkout the latest and greatest MVP MMA: “Rousey vs. Carano” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.