Here’s MMAmania.com’s UFC UFC 328 betting odds ‘Weekend Lock’ … what’s yours?

Last week’s recap: Unfortunately, my seven-week win streak came to a screeching halt as Tai Tuivasa did not defeat Louie Sutherland — answer the question that yes, “Bam Bam” is truly washed.

So, instead of complaining about my stupid lock last week, let’s keep rolling below:

On UFC 328 “Prelims” undercard, one of the division’s most exciting action fighters, Mateusz Rebecki, takes on arguably one of the most effective grapplers — and admittedly one of the more boring — Lightweights in the sport, Grant Dawson. Also, this is another American Top Team “Teammate vs. Teammate” fight.

So, this week, I’m locking in Dawson’s moneyline at -166.

Here’s why:

This feels like a classic “styles make fights” matchup, and stylistically, it leans heavily toward Dawson. Rebecki is a violent pressure machine who thrives in chaos, but Dawson’s entire game is built around eliminating chaos. He clinches, wrestles, controls and drains opponents over three rounds.

It’s not always exciting, but it wins fights.

More important, the only way Dawson has lost inside UFC has been by quick, one-punch knockouts (like this). That’s it. If opponents don’t starch him early, he usually drowns them with pace and grappling. And while Rebecki is aggressive and dangerous, he hasn’t really shown that type of lights-out power against elite competition — the only person he has stopped was Loik Radzhabov, and he’s no longer with the promotion.

If this turns into a wrestling-heavy fight — and it probably will — Dawson will have a clear edge. His resume speaks for itself. He owns strong wins over great grapplers like Damir Ismagulov and Rafa Garcia (watch highlights), and perhaps most tellingly, he completely dominated Carlos Diego Ferreira with a one-sided, 30-27 decision (that same Ferreira wrecked Rebecki). MMA math is imperfect, but it’s hard to ignore that stylistic comparison.

Another important factor: Dawson historically responds well after setbacks. Whenever he’s lost, he’s made adjustments and gone on another run. He’s also reportedly sparred consistently for the first time in years during this camp, which should help his reactions and comfort level in striking exchanges.

Simply put, Rebecki will probably come out like a bat out of hell and then get planted straight on his back for 15 minutes.

What could go wrong?

Rebecki is chaos personified. If he forces wild exchanges early or catches Dawson before the grappling gets going, things could unravel fast. Dawson also tends to absorb damage during entries, which is always dangerous against aggressive opponents.

Still, given the stylistic matchup, resume edge and grappling advantage, Dawson at –166 looks like one of the smartest plays on UFC 328’s card.

• Grant Dawson To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +900
• Grant Dawson To Win By Submission: +500
• Grant Dawson To Win By Decision: +120
• Mateusz Rebecki To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +275
• Mateusz Rebecki by Submission: +1600
• Mateusz Rebecki To Win By Decision: +550

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