JJ Wetherholt of the St. Louis Cardinals is showing promise despite not being at his best, recently hitting a two-run home run. His early season performance reflects the team's ups and downs, with a notable increase in aggressive batting but average batted ball data.
Key points
JJ Wetherholt hit a two-run home run against the Cleveland Guardians.
His early season results reflect the Cardinals' inconsistent performance.
Wetherholt is swinging more aggressively this season.
He has a 109 wRC+ and a .245 BABIP.
Wetherholt's performance is vital for the Cardinals' future.
St. Louis CardinalsCleveland GuardiansJJ Wetherholt
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - APRIL 14: JJ Wetherholt #26 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Cleveland Guardians at Busch Stadium on April 14, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - APRIL 14: JJ Wetherholt #26 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Cleveland Guardians at Busch Stadium on April 14, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Itās been an up and down season so far for the St. Louis Cardinals. Itās entirely reasonable to expect that it will be an up and down season from here on out. Weāre all hoping for an outcome thatās special and unexpected, but the likelihood is that weāll have to live through growing pains. In some ways, JJ Wetherholtās (very, very) early season results are a microcosm for the roller coaster nature of this team as a whole. This is fitting in a lot of ways, as we all hope JJ Wetherholt will be in St. Louis for a very long time. (Unless youāre somehow anti-Wetherholt?! Please, go ahead and identify yourself so we can turn up our noses at you and cross the street to the other side. Thanks!)
Wetherholt, of course, is an uber prospect. Everybody who ranks prospects (including your pet dog), had Wetherholt as a consensus top prospect in all of the minor leagues. This designation is a bit of a catch-22 for Cardinals prospects. Wetherholt descends from a shaky Cardinals prospect tree that includes names like Carlson, Reyes, Taveras (RIP ā a true sliding doors moment for the franchise), and Walker (WOW SO FAR). Iām fine staking my non-existent Cardinals reputation on the fact that Wetherholt is absolutely not going to be a failure. While Iām here giving takes, let me just bring up the spice level. Iād happily bet money that Wetherholt will be in a red jacket someday. Howās that for confidence?
In our last episode of Redbird Rundown, we ranked the top three most untradeable major leaguers on the Cardinals roster and despite Jordan Walkerās thermonuclear start (letās do it again ā WOW JORDAN WALKER SO FAR), Wetherholt remains the top of the heap for me. You may disagree, and thatās part of being an observer! Check out that list and so much more if youāre into audio content ā and !
If youāve watched any of the games thus far, youāve seen why I have such confidence in Wetherholt. The guy is a quintessential high-floor player. His approach is elite ā maybe even beyond elite? Wetherholt is a one man wrecking crew for opposing hurlerās pitch counts. As such, heās running a walk rate that is in the 76th percentile. While spitting on balls outside the zone, Wetherholt is hacking at pitches in the zone. In the very early going (Yes, Iām still aware itās early. Thanks for checking.), Wetherholt is displaying an aggressiveness that heās never shown as a professional. As of this writing, heās swinging at 5% more pitches in the zone and 3% more pitches outside the zone.
This newfound aggressiveness, while probably explained by a little rookie pressing to produce at the big league level, does not appear to be serving him well. His bat speed is exactly league average, so to leverage the , heās going to have to swing at exactly the right pitches. Naturally, Wetherholt just had a two homer game two days ago, so thereās all the proof any of us need.
For the season though, his batted ball data is strikingly average. Heās the of batted balls so far? Not sure. May need to workshop that. Heās almost exactly 50th percentile in barrel %, hard hit %, average exit velo, and squared up %. All of these numbers last year were much closer to the top of the MiLB system. Obviously, MLB hitters on average are better than MiLB hitters, but this suggests to me that Wetherholt is making contact with pitches he just canāt do as much with. In short, heās swinging too much right now.
The biggest plague on Wetherholtās offensive production so far is the sharply hit ball to second base. Now, before you get visions of dancing in your head, donāt. In general, just donāt do that to yourself. But, Wetherholt is pulling *so many more balls than last year*. Itās shocking really. Last year he pulled 42.5% of his batted ball events in the minors, this year itās up to 53.8%. What gives? His opposite field contact has fallen a full 14%. The best version of Wetherholt anyone has ever seen in his very short career (Wetherholt himself is a bit of a short king, no?) has a spray chart that looks like a shotgun blast. Itās all over the field. Right now, heās pulling far more pitches and suffering from a .245 BABIP. Many of these hard grounders are right at the first and second basemen.
Whatās the upshot? JJ Wetherholt is running a 109 wRC+ being a substandard version of his best offensive self. Iām going to chalk it up to rookie pressing. He also has an interesting habit of going through an adjustment period at each new level and then his baseball AI brain recalibrates and he dominates. Iām not sure weāll see the lofty 154 wRC+ he ran last year in the minors, but I expect him to improve. Itās been an impressive start, even as itās substandard for him. If that even makes sense.
As you watch him in the coming weeks, pay attention to how aggressive he is in the box. My hope is that he edges down towards his college and minor league seasons when it comes to swing rates. The track record of this more patient player is beyond impressive. I suspect that the Cardinals have a top of the order hitter that will be there for a long time just starting his adjustment period to major league pitching. Weāll see what the future brings.
As always, thanks for reading! Itās been a great experience at VEB so far. Thanks for that! You can usually find me during games hanging out on twitter . I honestly tweet more from our podcast handle . Drop by and say hey!
Q&A
What are JJ Wetherholt's current batting statistics?
As of now, JJ Wetherholt has a 109 wRC+ and is experiencing a .245 BABIP, indicating average offensive production.
How has JJ Wetherholt's batting approach changed this season?
Wetherholt is swinging at 5% more pitches in the zone and 3% more outside the zone compared to last year, showing increased aggressiveness.
What impact does JJ Wetherholt's performance have on the St. Louis Cardinals?
Wetherholt's performance is crucial as he is considered a top prospect and a key player for the Cardinals' future success.
Why is JJ Wetherholt considered a top prospect in MLB?
He is recognized for his elite approach at the plate, high walk rate, and potential for significant offensive contributions, despite current struggles.
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