How Likely Is It Bruins Will Get Maple Leafs First-Round Pick?

Boston Bruins forward David Pastrnak

How Likely Is It Bruins Will Get Maple Leafs First-Round Pick? originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The Boston Bruins’ chances of getting the Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 first-round pick took a hit on Wednesday.

Toronto suffered a 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators, which guaranteed the Maple Leafs would finish in the bottom five in the standings ahead of the lottery, which is notable for the Bruins.

At the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline, Boston acquired Fraser Minten, a 2026 first-round pick, which is top-five protected, and a 2025 fourth-round pick for defenseman Brandon Carlo. At the time, the top-five protection didn’t seem noticeable given the fact that Toronto was considered a Stanley Cup contender.

However, the Maple Leafs struggled this season and finished in the bottom five, but that doesn’t guarantee they will keep their pick. The NHL Draft Lottery will determine that, and ahead of the lottery, there is a 58.2% chance Toronto will fall to sixth or seventh overall, which would mean the Bruins would get that pick.

Overall, the Maple Leafs have a 8.5% chance of getting the first pick, a 8.6% chance of getting second overall, a 0.3% chance of getting the third pick, a 24.5% chance of getting the fifth pick, a 44% chance of dropping to sixth overall, and 14.2% chance of getting the seventh pick.

So, although the Maple Leafs did finish in the bottom five, there still is a greater chance Toronto falls a spot or two, which would give the Bruins another first-round pick and a chance to add another elite prospect to the fold.