As the 2026 F1 season resumes in Miami, predictions made during winter testing are being reassessed. Key teams like Mercedes and Ferrari are under scrutiny for their performance so far.
Key points
2026 F1 season restarts in Miami
Predictions revisited after three races
Mercedes currently leads the constructors' standings
Ferrari and McLaren also among top teams
Red Bull and Aston Martin underperforming
MercedesFerrariMcLarenRed Bull
Motorsport photo
Motorsport photo
As the 2026 F1 season restarts in Miami, our F1 writers revisit the pre-season predictions they made at the conclusion of winter testing in Bahrain. Who's still on track and who's looking silly already?
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Ronald Vording: "Regarding the teams, it should come as no surprise that Iâm sticking with my prediction for the constructorsâ champion. George Russell is right that Mercedesâ advantage wonât last forever, but its decline will be gradual â and the team's edge over the first three race weekends was actually a bit bigger than it appeared, partly masked by the yo-yo racing.
"If I were to change anything in the top three, I might now rank McLaren second. The start of the season has been challenging for Andrea Stellaâs team, but it has made significant progress in understanding the power unit since Melbourne, and its development on the chassis side has traditionally been strong.
"Behind them, I expect Red Bull to recover somewhat over time â not enough to challenge the top three teams, but enough to eventually beat Alpine to the âbest of the restâ position behind Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari. As for the rest, I would only swap Audi and Williams, although the Grove-based team could still make significant gains as it continues to reduce weight."
Haas is defying expectations so far with an early fourth place in the standings as Red Bull struggles.
Haas is defying expectations so far with an early fourth place in the standings as Red Bull struggles.
Haas is defying expectations so far with an early fourth place in the standings as Red Bull struggles.
Jake Boxall-Legge: "In terms of the teams' competitive order thus far, I think I was in the ballpark. Mercedes and Ferrari, per testing, always looked a step ahead, although McLaren is catching the Prancing Horses now that it's got its starts together.
"I think one could make an easy switch and swap Audi and Williams around, but I can't really quibble with the rest; while Haas and Alpine are currently ahead of Red Bull in the championship, this isn't necessarily an indicator of pace at this stage. We're in the interesting part of the season where teams start putting their bigger development items together, so there's every chance that this could shuffle around.
"My picks of Aston Martin and Cadillac at the rear probably won't change for the time being, unless Cadillac has found more than a second per lap, and if Aston Martin and Honda have ironed out their combined issues..."
Filip Cleeren: "I had McLaren ahead of Ferrari for second and I still feel pretty good about that. I still back the papaya squad to get ahead on the long-term and I'm curious to see how much the team's Miami Grand Prix upgrade package is going to be a step in that direction.
"Where I've deviated next is Williams, and I've been pretty wrong so far on the team confirming its upward trend from 2025, with a car that is more overweight and underdeveloped than originally anticipated. And how could none of us had predicted Haas in fourth?! Disappointing! I think it's just the start of what will be a close season-long battle that will keep fluctuating as teams bring upgrades, and that's what we want to see."
Filip Cleeren: "My biggest gaffe was Kimi Antonelli on the drivers' side, who I had only put seventh. I am more than happy to be proven wrong by the Italian youngster, who looks like he's figured it out and can give George Russell and run for his money. I still think Russell is the man to beat, though."
Ronald Vording: "Yeah, when it comes to the drivers, itâs clear that I also rated Antonelli far too low in my initial predictions. Thatâs partly because Mercedes appear to be even further ahead than initially expected, but above all because the young Italian has made a strong impression over the first three race weekends. Of course, he will inevitably make mistakes, but even taking that into account, I would still promote him to second place in the updated predictions.
"Given Red Bullâs issues, it also makes sense to place both McLaren drivers as well as Lewis Hamilton ahead of Max Verstappen. The Miami race weekend should give us a bit more clarity â especially to see whether Red Bull now fully understands the (significant) issues with the RB22 â but even then, there is still a lot of work to be done in Milton Keynes."
Kimi Antonelli has grown up quicker than expected with Mercedes, leading the standings after three weekends.
Kimi Antonelli has grown up quicker than expected with Mercedes, leading the standings after three weekends.
Kimi Antonelli has grown up quicker than expected with Mercedes, leading the standings after three weekends.
Jake Boxall-Legge: "I had Russell Leclerc, and Antonelli as my top three, although not currently in the right order; I maybe thought Ferrari and Leclerc might be closer, and didn't expect Antonelli to be challenging Russell quite so much (although Russell has had quite a few issues on his end).
"Hamilton has been undersold, so I haven't done well there - although it wasn't entirely clear at the time that he'd get into a groove with the new cars. Verstappen, meanwhile, has a car that so far hasn't delivered; I slotted him between the McLaren drivers, but I'd have to put him below the Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren drivers if we were having another go. Pierre Gasly and Ollie Bearman have been the best of the midfielders though, and I had them in the top 10 - so I am naturally (so far) delighted with my new-found clairvoyance..."
