How teams with toughest strength of schedule fared last 10 years

TL;DR

The Chicago Bears face the toughest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season, with historical data indicating that teams in similar positions often struggle. Over the past nine seasons, seven of the teams with the hardest schedules finished with losing records.

Key points

Chicago Bears have the toughest strength of schedule for 2026
Seven of the last nine teams with tough schedules had losing records
2023 Eagles were the only team with double-digit wins in similar situations
Teams with tough schedules won 23 fewer games combined the following season
Bears' success hinges on their quarterback and head coach's development

Mentioned in this story

Ben JohnsonCaleb WilliamsTom BradyCam NewtonMatthew Stafford

Chicago BearsDallas CowboysPhiladelphia EaglesCleveland Browns

Sep 21, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson talks with quarterback Caleb Williams (18) against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images For those of you who have lived under a rock the last couple of months, you may not realize that the Chicago Bears have the toughest strength of schedule entering the 2026 season. The national media has let Bears fans know every chance they get to let them know that the Bears could be a regression candidate based on the challenges their schedule presents. The Bears do indeed have the toughest schedule in the league, with their opponents having a .550 winning percentage from 2025. Each NFL season brings significant changes, so those numbers might not mean anything, but how did teams in the Bears’ position perform with that situation? Let’s take a look. Of the previous 9 seasons, the team with the hardest strength of schedule finished with a losing record seven of the nine times. That certainly seems concerning. Of the two teams with a winning record, only one finished with double-digit wins; that was the 2023 Eagles, who went 11-6. Here’s how it looks: 2026 Bears ??? 2025 Giants 4-13, missed playoffs 2024 Browns 3-14, missed playoffs 2023 Eagles 11-6, lost in Wild Card Round 2022 Rams 5-12, missed playoffs 2021 9-7-1, lost in Wild Card Round 2020 7-9, missed playoffs 2019 7-9, missed playoffs 2018 6-9-1, missed playoffs 2017 5-11, missed playoffs Now, before we panic, I think we should look at the team’s record from the previous year. If a team was bad and stayed bad, that certainly isn’t the Bears case, so let’s look at how those teams did previously. 2024 Giants 3-14 2023 Browns 11-6 2022 Eagles 14-3 2021 Rams 12-5 2020 Steelers 12-4 2019 Patriots 12-4 2018 Raiders 4-12 2017 Packers 7-9 2016 Broncos 5-11 Five of the nine teams did have winning records the previous season. Now, other factors play into these numbers. For example, the 2019 Patriots had , the 2020 Patriots had a past-his-prime at quarterback. The 2022 Rams, missed half the season. But overall, if we strictly look at how teams went from the previous year to the year with the toughest schedule, we get this change in win totals: 2025 Giants +1 2024 Browns -8 2023 Eagles -3 2022 Rams -7 2021 Steelers -3 2020 Patriots -5 2019 Raiders +3 2018 Packers -1 2017 Broncos +/- 0 These 9 teams, combined, won 23 fewer games the following season with the difficult schedule. Five of them had a winning record the previous season, and only two of them maintained a winning record; both of those teams (Eagles and Steelers) won 3 fewer games than the previous season. One other thing to note: every team that did make the playoffs failed to win a playoff game. With teams winning 2.6 fewer games per season, and the teams with winning records that maintained winning records winning 3 fewer games, history tells us the Chicago Bears will win 8 or 9 games this season. I don’t think any Bears fan is expecting that type of season; none of those teams had an ascending quarterback and ascending head coach, and others had changes at QB or dealt with significant injuries as well. But if the Bears are going to improve on their 11-6 record and win some playoff games, based on the last 10 years of data, they will be the anomaly. If anyone can do it, it’s Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. Time will tell.

Q&A

What is the strength of schedule for the Chicago Bears in 2026?

The Chicago Bears have the toughest strength of schedule for the 2026 season, with their opponents having a .550 winning percentage from 2025.

How did teams with the toughest strength of schedule perform in the last 10 years?

In the last 10 years, seven out of nine teams with the toughest strength of schedule finished with losing records.

Which team had the best record among those with tough schedules in the last decade?

The 2023 Philadelphia Eagles had the best record among those teams, finishing with an 11-6 record.

What historical trends affect the Bears' chances for the 2026 season?

Historically, teams facing tough schedules have won an average of 2.6 fewer games, with only two maintaining a winning record the following season.

How teams with toughest strength of schedule fared last 10 years

TL;DR

Key points

Q&A

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