How Tennessee baseball can earn an SEC Tournament bye

Tennessee currently sits tied with Oklahoma for 10th with a 13-14 SEC record. If the conference tournament started today, Tennessee would be the No. 11 seed.

Texas A&M, Texas, Alabama and Auburn occupy spots two through five with 16 conference wins. Florida, Mississippi State, and Arkansas have 15, and Ole Miss has 14.

SEC Tournament format

The SEC changed its baseball tournament last season to a 16-team, single-elimination bracket. That format is unchanged this year, meaning seeds nine through 16 will play in the first round on May 19 and need five straight wins for the title. Seeds five through eight get a bye to the second round and top-four seeds advance straight to the quarterfinals.

If Tennessee stayed in its current position as the No. 11 seed, it would play No. 14 seed LSU in the first round on May 19. The winner would face No. 6 seed Florida the next day, and the victor of that game would face Texas in the quarterfinals.

How Tennessee can earn a bye

To break into the top eight, Tennessee needs to overtake Ole Miss and one of Mississippi State, Arkansas and Florida. A series loss would eliminate the Vols from contention no matter what happens elsewhere.

The first tiebreaker for SEC seeding is head-to-head, which Tennessee owns over Mississippi State but not Ole Miss. The Vols didn’t play Arkansas or Florida in the regular season, so if they finished tied with either it would come down to winning percentage against common opponents. That won’t be decided until the final day’s results are in.

Here are the three scenarios in which Tennessee could secure a bye without bringing the common opponents tiebreaker into play:

• Win two games at Oklahoma AND Ole Miss loses all three games at Alabama AND Mississippi State loses all three games at Texas A&M
• Win all three games at Oklahoma AND At least two of Mississippi State, Arkansas and Florida are swept
• Win all three games at Oklahoma AND One of Mississippi State, Arkansas or Florida is swept AND Ole Miss loses series at Alabama

In short: Tennessee’s odds at earning a top-eight seed are slim, even if it wins the series at Oklahoma. But if it misses out on a bye and has to play in the first round, it could still stand to make its path a bit easier.

A series win against Oklahoma would guarantee the Vols can’t drop any lower than the No. 11 seed. It would result in a top-10 seed unless Kentucky sweeps Arkansas.

Emmett Siegel covers Tennessee baseball for Knox News. Email: emmett.siegel@knoxnews.com; X: @EmmettSiegel_

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee baseball needs help in final weekend for SEC Tournament bye