How the NBA Draft Lottery works: Each team's odds of winning the No. 1 pick in 2026, players to be selected

The Grizzlies enter with the sixth-best odds of landing No. 1. The Pelicans and Mavericks finished tied for the league's seventh-worst record, which means their draft slots have nearly identical odds (6.8%) of landing No. 1. Despite finishing with one of the league's worst records, New Orleans won't have its own first-round pick after trading it last summer in a deal on draft night which netted the franchise Derik Queen.

The Hawks own the Pelicans' first-round pick (projected No. 7) and have swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks. That means if the Bucks land No. 1, the Hawks can swap their first-round pick. The Bucks' draft slot has a 3% of being the No. 1 pick.

Monday marks the eighth year of the NBA's new lottery system (and potentially the last of this era), so if all of this sounds foreign, we've got a detailed explainer for what to know and when to know it below.

When is the NBA Draft Lottery?

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place Sunday at 3;

 p.m. ET before Game 4 of the Eastern Conference playoff showdown between the Knicks and 76ers. It will air on ESPN and be streaming on fubo (try for free).

The list of team representatives who will be present at the draft lottery is expected to be released by the NBA in the coming days.

How does the lottery work?

The previous draft lottery system, before 2019, gave the team with the worst record a 25% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick. The second and third-worst teams by record were given 19.9% and 15.6% chance of winning the No. 1 pick. The new format, approved in 2017 and enacted in 2019, reduced the odds that the teams with the three worst records would win the lottery and flattened the odds across the board.

The three teams with the worst record are awarded a 14% chance; thereafter, the odds decrease by 1.5% points, down to 0.5%. The way the lottery is conducted could change as soon as next year with the proposed 3-2-1 lottery format. Here is a detailed explainer on how the new system would work if it's implemented.

[NBA Draft Lottery 2026: Which teams most deserve to land the No. 1 pick?

Cameron Salerno

What's the selection process for the lottery?

A draft lottery conducted through drawings will be held to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remaining 10 lottery teams will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2024-25 regular-season records.

The lottery process is conducted privately with representatives from the NBA, participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young in attendance.

A total of fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There is a total of 1,001 possible combinations when the four balls are drawn. All 14 balls are placed into the lottery machine and mixed for 20 seconds before the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds and another ball is drawn. The team with the assigned combination receives the No. 1 pick.

That process is then repeated until the order for picks Nos. 2, 3 and 4 are set.

Here's more on that from the NBA:

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.

If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.

What are the odds for the draft lottery?

The Wizards finished with the NBA's worst record in 2025-26, thus earning a 14% chance to win the lottery. Indiana had the second-worst record and has a 14% chance as well. The full odds board for each team to win the No. 1 pick and the chances each pick lands in the top four are below.

x - Pick may be conveyed to another team

• If Indiana's pick lands outside of the top-4 selections, the Los Angeles Clippers will receive the pick. If Indiana falls out of the top 4, its pick would be No. 5 or No. 6.
• The Bucks are the only team here unable toreceive the No. 1 pick. The Hawks have swap rights with the Bucks, meaning if the Bucks draw the first-overall pick, it can be swapped. Milwaukee would then receive the Pelicans' first-round pick, via the Hawks. The Spurs own the Hawks' first-round pick, which is slotted at pick No. 20.

Which players will be picked in the lottery?

These will change before the NBA Draft, but here are the current top NBA Draft prospects on Adam Finkelstein's NBA Draft Big Board, with the full board available here.