How The NHL Draft Lottery Works & What Pick The Capitals Could End Up With

(Christopher Hanewinckel — Imagn Images)

The Washington Capitals will figure out where they're selecting in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft on Tuesday, as the NHL hosts its annual draft lottery.

To determine the draft order for the first 16 picks among teams that did not qualify for the postseason, the NHL places a set of 14 numbered ping-pong balls in a lottery machine, which can result in 1,00 possible combinations. Four are drawn to form a four-number combination.

In turn, each team in the lottery has its own set set of four-number combinations depending on their record; the worse the record, the more combinations a team has.

Washington, who finished just outside of a Wild card spot, have five of the 1,000 possible combinations, meaning it has a 0.5 percent chance of winning the first lottery draw.

Here are the Capitals' combinations:

Combo 1: 3, 4, 10, 12

Combo 2: 5, 6, 9, 12

Combo 3: 5, 7, 13, 14

Combo 4: 5, 8, 12, 13

Combo 5: 5, 9, 13, 14

Because Washington is in the No. 16 spot for teams that didn't qualify for the playoffs, the Capitals cannot win the first overall pick. A rule chance in 2021 determined that a team in the No. 12-16 spot can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft order, so the highest potential pick for D.C. would be the sixth overall selection.

After the first draw, there's a second draw, where the No. 13-16 teams can again, onyl move up 10 slots. After the top two picks are determined, the rest of the non-playoff teams fill out those spots in the reverse order of their regular-season point totals.

The team with the highest odds at the first overall pick are the Vancouver Canucks, who finished with the NHL's worst record and own 185 combinations for a 18.5 percent chance at the first overall pick.

The NHL draft Lottery will be live on ESPN and Sportsnet and TVA Sports at 7 p.m. ET. Gavin McKenna is the projected first-overall selection.

Washington last participated in the NHL Draft Lottery in 2023, when it drew the eighth overall selection. That year, the Capitals selected Ryan Leonard.