How UConn-Illinois, Arizona-Michigan will be decided in men's Final Four

INDIANAPOLIS -- The 2026 edition of the men's Final Four features some of the most dominant teams of the season.

Arizona spent nine straight weeks atop the AP poll after opening the season on a program-best 23-0 start. The Wildcats will face Michigan, the team that unseated them from No. 1, which is averaging 95.3 points per game in the NCAA tournament, the most by a team en route to the semifinals since Kentucky averaged 97.0 in 1993.

The two join Illinois in reaching the Final Four by winning every NCAA tournament game by double digits, marking the first time three teams have done that since 1973, per ESPN Research. The Fighting Illini will open the action Saturday against UConn, which is chasing its third national championship in four seasons. The Huskies have won their past two meetings with the Illini: in the Elite Eight during their 2024 title run and a nonconference meeting at Madison Square Garden in November.

Who will advance to Monday's national championship? ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down what -- and whose performances -- could decide both games.

Who is the most important player on the floor Saturday?

Borzello: Tarris Reed Jr.

Reed emerging as the modern-day Wilt Chamberlain in the NCAA tournament has transformed UConn. He has been the most dominant player in the field the past two weeks, bookended by a 31-point, 27-rebound performance against Furman in the first round and outperforming AP Player of the Year Cameron Boozer against Duke in the Elite Eight. Reed is averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.3 blocks in the tournament while shooting 60% from the field.

Reed will have to control the paint on offense and defense against Illinois. The Fighting Illini will look to contain his post scoring with 7-foot-1 Tomislav Ivisic and 7-2 Zvonimir Ivisic -- the ability of both players to stretch the floor and make 3s could force Reed away from the rim defensively. He played just 15 minutes in the first meeting between the teams because of an ankle injury but went 0-for-3 from the floor and committed four fouls.

UConn can't afford for that to happen again.

Medcalf: Koa Peat

At 6-8 and 235 pounds, Arizona needs the freshman's combination of size, talent and skill to beat Michigan. The good news for the Wildcats is that Peat is doing some of his best work as the season closes out, averaging 14.8 points and connecting on 53% of his shots inside the arc over the past 10 games. This game is a battle between two excellent teams with six projected first-round NBA draft picks between them.

Peat will have to be a defensive stopper against one of the biggest frontcourts in college basketball and create the production inside the paint the Wildcats will need to match an opponent that is prolific in the paint.

It's difficult to imagine Michigan winning without All-American Yaxel Lendeborg playing well. You could make the same case about Arizona and Peat, who scored eight points combined in the team's two losses.

What will determine UConn-Illinois?

Borzello: Perimeter shooting.

Illinois has been one of the country's most 3-point-happy teams all season, although the Illini became less reliant on perimeter shots down the stretch. They still rank in the top 15 nationally in 3s made per game and 3-point attempt rate, but after making double digit 3s in 18 of their previous 22 games, they have done it just once since March 3 -- and went 3-for-17 from 3 against Iowa in the Elite Eight.

For UConn, it's less about volume and more about making shots. On paper, Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban are as fearsome a shooting trio as there is in college basketball. But in recent reality, Ball is 14.3% from 3 over his past six games, Mullins is 18.5% from 3 in his past eight games and Karaban went just 1-for-6 from 3 against Duke.

UConn doesn't have to outshoot Illinois because of the edge it will have inside, but it's a massive boost for UConn's offense when it is making shots.

Medcalf: Illinois' ability to corral Reed.

Mullins hit the winning 3 against Duke while UConn's second-half defense and offensive execution fueled the comeback, but the Huskies' win would not have been possible without Reed's production: 26 points, nine rebounds and four blocks.

Illinois has length around the rim that few teams can match. But if Reed is as dominant as he has been throughout the NCAA tournament, it will create more opportunities for Mullins, Karaban and their backcourt mates to affect the game offensively -- but the Huskies also need Reed to be a force in the paint defensively. Opposing players have made just 25% of their attempts around the rim against Reed during the NCAA tournament.

What will determine Arizona-Michigan?

Borzello: Points in the paint.

As college basketball trends more toward bigger lineups and dominance around the rim, Arizona and Michigan are leading the charge. Both teams have size, are physical and look to assert themselves on the offensive end through sheer aggression. Arizona ranks fifth in the country in paint points per game, second in 2-point attempts per game, third in free throw attempts per game and is top 10 in offensive rebound percentage. Michigan is second in 2-point field goal percentage, third in 2-point percentage defense and is top 20 in both paint points per game and second-chance points per game.

Against Arkansas in the Sweet 16, Arizona had 60 points in the paint and 30 from the free throw line. The Wildcats then outscored Purdue by a combined 28 points in those areas in the Elite Eight. On the other side, Michigan put on a transition exhibition against Tennessee, which is something a team with the Wolverines' size is not typically capable of doing.

Can either team establish itself around the rim? That'll be the key.

Medcalf: Perimeter pressure.

Both teams' post attack will thrive according to what happens on the perimeter.

Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries are each at their best when they're driving downhill, drawing extra pressure and creating open looks for their teammates, so Michigan's efforts to stall an Arizona team that's excellent around the rim will have to start with the Wildcats' offensive facilitators.

On the other side, Arizona won't be able to send more help to mitigate Michigan's paint threats if the Wolverines are a threat from the perimeter: Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett and Yaxel Lendeborg have all made at least 37% of their 3-point attempts. If the Wolverines are off, though -- they made just 28% of their 3-point attempts in their three losses this season -- the Wildcats' job will be easier.