How upstarts Falkirk created SPFL dilemma

Upstarts, in the nicest possible way, Falkirk have upset the Scottish Premiership applecart this season.

After the Bairns' successive promotions, onlookers may have banked on John McGlynn's brand of football being a breath of fresh air, but few would have expected them to be finish in the top six.

Victory over Motherwell on Saturday sealed that feat and they remain in contention for European qualification on two fronts.

But it has created somewhat of a dilemma for organisers, the Scottish Professional Football League. Here's why...

Fixture discrepancies among top six

For the uninitiated, the Premiership splits after 33 rounds of fixtures, whereafter the top six sides play each other one more time and the bottom six teams do likewise.

The post-split fixtures are expected to be announced soon and all 12 teams have one round of regular season fixtures still to play this coming weekend.

Celtic, Heart of Midlothian, Hibernian, Falkirk, Motherwell and Rangers will be the top half of the table for the season's final five rounds of fixtures.

After 33 league games, leaders Hearts, Rangers, Motherwell and Falkirk will have played 17 home games in the division and 16 away. The quartet would normally therefore have two home games and three away matches after the split.

Defending champions Celtic and Hibs will have played 16 at home and 17 on the road and would expect three home games and two away matches post-split.

Given the need to even out home and away derbies and the stakes in the title race, it is likely two of Hearts' away games will be at Hibs' Easter Road and Celtic Park, while Rangers can expect to be away to Celtic and Hearts.

However, Hearts will have hosted Falkirk and Motherwell twice, which means one of those two latter sides face a potential third league trip to Tynecastle.

As well as visits from Hearts and Rangers, Celtic will have a home meeting with either Hibs, Falkirk or Motherwell - three sides who will have already visited Celtic Park twice this season.

There would also be a discrepancy with Rangers' fixtures. The Ibrox side would have hosted Hibs, Falkirk and Motherwell only once each, but the Ibrox side will only have two home games post-split and face a potential third trip to one of that trio of teams.

The most diplomatic solution may be to give Falkirk an additional home game, to make 20 in total, have them host Hibs, Motherwell and Rangers for a third time and visit Celtic Park and Hearts a third time.

That way, the current top four would end up playing each other home and away twice in the league. Falkirk, meanwhile, will have been compensated for losing home gates against Celtic and Hearts by having Rangers and Hibs with similarly large travelling support and that extra home game against Motherwell.

European permutations

However, if Falkirk were to be in contention for a European place, giving them an extra home game may be perceived as an unfair advantage. Celtic and the Bairns also maintain an interest in the Scottish Cup, with the reward for the winner a Europa League qualifying place and a potential impact on the league.

Should Celtic finish in the Premiership's top two to qualify for the Champions League qualifiers AND win the Scottish Cup, it's likely the Europa League place would go to the team finishing third in the Premiership and one of the Conference League qualifying places on offer to third and fourth in the league would go to the team that finishes fifth.

Should Celtic or Falkirk win the Scottish Cup AND also finish either third or fourth in the Premiership, the Scottish Cup winners would enter the Europa League qualifiers and one of those Conference League qualifying places would go to the team that finishes fifth.

Hence, it is possible Falkirk could finish fifth and qualify for Europe with the benefit of having had an extra home game while the team in sixth would have had an even number of home and away games.

Media caption,

Watch highlights as Falkirk beat Dundee Utd to reach Scottish Cup semis

Bottom six impacted too

Aberdeen, Dundee, Dundee United, Kilmarnock, Livingston and St Mirren will make up the bottom six.

Aberdeen, Dundee, Livingston and St Mirren will have played 16 home league games and 17 away come the split. United and Killie will have the opposite.

Two of the three Dundee derbies this season have been at Dens Park, so in all likelihood a season's final meeting of the Tayside teams would be at Tannadice.

Assuming this and Dundee's other away game being at Livingston (having hosted them twice), home games against Aberdeen, Killie and St Mirren would even things up.

Aberdeen, with home games versus Kilmarnock, St Mirren and United and trips to Dundee and Livi would also achieve parity of home and away ties. St Mirren would be due visits from Kilmarnock, Livi and United and be away to Aberdeen and Dundee.

But here come the discrepancies. As well as the Dundee derby, United will have one other home game after the split but all four of Aberdeen, Killie, Livi and St Mirren have been to Tannadice in the league twice already this season. One will have to make a third trip, though it is unlikely to be north-east rivals Aberdeen.

There is a similar dilemma with Kilmarnock. They are due to have two home games, with probably one of those against United.

However, Aberdeen, Dundee and St Mirren have all already been to Rugby Park twice this season. One of those three will need to make a third trip to East Ayrshire.

Bottom side Livi should travel to St Mirren, but they have already visited each of Aberdeen, Dundee, United and Killie twice and will face a third trip to one of those four clubs.

Livi are 11 points adrift and would be a maximum of 14 points adrift with five games to go if they lose their last game before the split - hence, while favourites for automatic relegation, it will not be arithmetically confirmed until after the post-split fixtures are announced and at least one round of them have been played.

No matter which way you cut it, the SPFL faces an unenviable task in scheduling the Premiership's final five rounds of fixtures.

After this weekend's games, the Premiership will take a two-week hiatus to accommodate the Scottish Cup semi-finals.

Then, from the weekend of 25 and 26 April, it is top-six and bottom-six fixtures through until mid-May, with the cup final and relegation play-off taking place thereafter.