The Indiana Pacers face a near coin flip chance of retaining their first-round pick in the upcoming NBA Draft lottery. The outcome is crucial following their trade with the Los Angeles Clippers for Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown.
Key points
Indiana Pacers have a near coin flip chance to keep their first-round pick
NBA Draft lottery is scheduled for Sunday in Chicago
Pacers traded their first-round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers
Ivica Zubac was a key acquisition for the Pacers
Kobe Brown was also acquired in the trade with the Clippers
Mentioned in this story
Chicago
Indiana PacersLos Angeles ClippersNBA Draft
2025 NBA Draft - Round One
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 25: An overall view of the draft board following the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 25, 2025 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Getty Images
CHICAGO – The Indiana Pacers will learn the direction of their offseason and the fate of their bold trade deadline move on Sunday. The NBA Draft lottery will be held in Chicago that afternoon, and the Pacers have a lot at stake.
In February, Indiana sent their first-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers in a trade that netted them center Ivica Zubac and forward Kobe Brown. The Pacers wanted Zubac and have had their eyes on him for a while. He nearly made an All-NBA team in 2024-25. But acquiring a player of that caliber requires a significant price.
The Pacers sent Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, a 2029 unprotected first-round pick, and a second-round selection to the Clippers. Those are all guaranteed parts of the trade package. They also sent a conditional 2026 first-round selection that makes Sunday such a big deal for the blue and gold.
That pick is protected so that it would only go to LA if it lands between five and nine. 10-30 would have gone to the Pacers, as would one through four. The 10-30 part is no longer important, though. The Pacers finished the season with the league’s second-worst record, meaning their first-round draft pick can only fall as low as sixth overall.
Q&A
What are the Indiana Pacers' odds of keeping their first-round pick?
The Indiana Pacers have nearly a coin flip chance of retaining their first-round pick in the NBA Draft lottery.
What trade did the Indiana Pacers make involving their first-round pick?
The Pacers traded their first-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers in exchange for center Ivica Zubac and forward Kobe Brown.
When is the NBA Draft lottery for the Indiana Pacers?
The NBA Draft lottery for the Indiana Pacers will take place on Sunday in Chicago.
Who did the Indiana Pacers acquire in the trade with the Los Angeles Clippers?
In the trade with the Los Angeles Clippers, the Indiana Pacers acquired center Ivica Zubac and forward Kobe Brown.
Related Articles
Soccer·Recap
Salford hit back to win L2 play-off first leg at Grimsby
Salford City comes back to win 2-1 against Grimsby in L2 play-off first leg!
Sky Sports··1 min read
Sports
Una victoria de consolación ante el Atlético
Marca·
Sports
Caitlin Clark joins Morgan Wallen on stage during Indy concert
Yahoo Sports·
Sports
What Tyler Tanner said about NBA draft combine, Vanderbilt return
Yahoo Sports·
Sports
ESPN identifies what went right for USC football this offseason
Yahoo Sports·
Sports
Why Brighton's first Women's FA Cup final felt like it was coming
See every story in Sports — including breaking news and analysis.
That’s why the Draft Lottery is so important for the Pacers. The first four selections in the NBA Draft are determined by the lottery drawing, which means the Pacers will need fate to smile upon them to keep their draft pick. If the lottery, which is done by a random drawing of ping pong balls, favors other teams, the Pacers will lose their pick to the Clippers.
“The pick protection, it was very unique, obviously,” Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan said of the trade. “We were trying to protect our upside at the top of the draft mostly.”
What are the odds the Pacers keep their 2026 first-round draft pick?
Since 2019, the NBA has been operating under its current odds for the NBA Draft lottery – though they are expected to change next season. Today’s format was meant to de-incentivize racking up losses for the sake of a better draft pick, though it hasn’t had the intended effect.
BYU v Kansas
LAWRENCE, KANSAS - JANUARY 31: Forward AJ Dybantsa #3 of the BYU Cougars controls the ball as he is defended by guard Darryn Peterson #22 of the Kansas Jayhawks in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse on January 31, 2026 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Getty Images
That means the Pacers, who finished the season with the NBA’s second-worst record, aren’t guaranteed to land in the top four after the lottery. In fact, they barely have better than coin flip odds.
Tankathon lays out the odds well in this table, but to summarize, the Pacers have a 52.1% chance of keeping their draft pick and a 47.9% chance of it going to the Clippers. Technically the Pacers are favored to end up with the pick, but not by much.
“That’s a business decision. I can’t predict what happens in the lottery. Whatever happens, happens,” Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith said of the projected 2026 pick being included in the trade back in February.
The individual pick slots break down for the Pacers as follows.
First overall: 14.0%
Second overall: 13.4%
Third overall: 12.7%
Fourth overall: 12.0%
Fifth overall: 27.8%
Sixth overall: 20.1%
The most likely individual outcomes are fifth and sixth, but the cumulative odds of one through four are greater. Should the pick land fifth or sixth, the Pacers won’t even see their logo revealed at the draft lottery. The NBA will hold up a card that says Clippers, the pick will be sent to LA, and that will be that.
Guard T.J. McConnell will be the on-stage lottery representative for the Pacers. He will be the one shown on TV when their fate is announced. The Pacers have a plan for the offseason with or without the pick and have identified roster needs already. But they’ll still be hoping for lottery luck today, especially given how talented the top four players in this draft are perceived to be.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
