IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: MI, LSG first teams out of contention; RCB surge to 94.82% probability

Sunrisers Hyderabad remain close behind with a 91.74% playoff probability and a 58.66% top-two projection despite slipping from first to second on Net Run Rate. Gujarat Titans also strengthened their position considerably after their dominant win over Rajasthan Royals earlier in the week and now stand at 87.53% playoff probability.

Punjab Kings, despite sitting fourth with 13 points, continue to project extremely strongly because they still have four matches remaining, more than every other top-six contender. PBKS currently qualify in 84.69% of simulations and still hold nearly a 50% chance of securing a top-two finish.

The biggest movement after Sunday’s results came in the middle of the table.

Chennai Super Kings’ five-wicket victory over Lucknow Super Giants dramatically revived their campaign. CSK’s playoff probability has now jumped to 58.47%, making them statistical favourites over Rajasthan Royals despite both teams sitting on 12 points.

The difference is largely schedule-driven. Chennai still have fixtures remaining against SRH and GT but have already recovered momentum with four wins in their last five games, while Rajasthan’s projections continue to be weighed down by poor recent form and a damaged Net Run Rate after their 77-run defeat to Gujarat.

RR now project at 54.33% playoff probability: a notable drop compared to earlier simulations where they were tracking above 80%.

Kolkata Knight Riders remain alive at 19.84%, though they likely require at least three wins from their final four matches combined with favourable external results.

Delhi Capitals still retain faint mathematical pathways at 8.41%, but their disastrous -1.154 Net Run Rate continues to heavily damage qualification projections in tie scenarios.

For Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants, however, the race is now effectively over.

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With PBKS on 13th points and occupying the last playoff spot at the moment, neither MI nor LSG can surpass or go level on points with PBKS even if they win their remaining games. With only three league matches remaining and multiple teams already sitting on 12-14 points, the playoff cut-off has effectively moved beyond their realistic reach.

Remaining IPL 2026 Fixtures: Projected Favourites

The probabilities were generated using a simulation model that replayed the remaining IPL 2026 league stage 100,000 times using current points, Net Run Rate, recent form, remaining fixtures and weighted team-strength probabilities.