IPL 2026 Playoff Qualification Scenarios: With 14 matches to go, GT surge to 99.6% as SRH slip to 76.8% - odds for each team explained

With 14 games remaining in the league stage, LSG and MI are already out of contention for the playoffs and DC is barely hanging in there. GT has almost qualified while RCB and SRH would have to do really badly from here on not to make the playoffs. PBKS too remains in a good position to get there.

CSK and RR have a better than even chance of ending up among the top four in terms of points, even if jointly. KKR have a slim chance. There remain 16,384 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the eight remaining in the race.

We look at the probabilities:

• Tuesday’s win has almost ensured GT will finish within the top four in terms of points with a 99.6% chance of that happening, and their chances of ending up in first or second spot, singly or jointly is an impressive 84.5%.
• RCB have an 88.1% chance of finishing among the top four by points (including possible ties for one or more of those spots) and a 59% chance of being among the top two.
• Tuesday’s loss means SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four by points has fallen to 76.8% and they have only a 35.5% chance of being among the top two.
• PBKS’s chances of ending up among the top four on points is at 64.5% and they have only a 28.8% chance of finishing among the top two.
• At 53.9%, CSK have a better than even chance of getting into the top four but just 22% chance of ending up among the top two.
• RR have a slightly lower 53.8% chance of ending up among the top four and only 18.2% chance of grabbing one of the top two slots.
• KKR have a slim 12.8% chance of making the last four but they can even now end up among the top two on points, though there’s only a minuscule 3.6% chance of that.
• DC have kept alive their hopes of making the playoffs, but only just, with a 3.2% probability. They can at best finish third tied with anywhere between two and three other teams.

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How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 16,384 possible combinations of results remaining with 14 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, GT finish in the top four in 16,324 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 99.6% chance of being among the top four, singly or jointly.