Is history repeating itself? The title race trends Arsenal must defy to win the Premier League

Is history repeating itself? The title race trends Arsenal must defy to win the Premier League

The Premier League title race took another twist this weekend as Manchester City narrowed the gap to Arsenal to six points.

City comfortably beat Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge while Arsenal suffered a surprising home defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday.

Pep Guardiola’s side also have a game in hand on Arsenal, and face Mikel Arteta’s men at the Etihad Stadium next weekend with a chance to narrow the gap further, to just three points.

Unfortunately for Arsenal fans, this season’s title race is playing out in a very familiar set of circumstances to previous years. So is history repeating itself? And what do Arsenal need to do to ensure it does not?

City’s games in hand and coming from behind

In both of the two previous recent title races between the two clubs, in 2023/24 and 2022/23, City have come from behind on points partly in thanks to having games in hand on the Gunners.

Back in the 2023/24 campaign, City were behind in the table going into their game in hand against Arsenal’s fierce rivals Tottenham, winning 2-0 to move into top spot and then beating West Ham on the final day to confirm their title win.

City also had a game in hand on their title rivals in the 2022/23 season. Arsenal’s 3-3 draw with Southampton on April 21 meant City had two games in hand on the Gunners, ahead of the two sides facing off at the Etihad.

City’s dominant 4-1 win over the Gunners a few days later meant they were firmly in control of the title race, sitting two points behind but with two games in hand and going on to win the title after Arsenal lost at Nottingham Forest.

Guardiola’s side again a game in hand approaching the end of this season too. They will move level on games with Arsenal briefly next week when they face Burnley, before moving back to having a game in hand that weekend when they play in the FA Cup while Arsenal face Newcastle in the Premier League.

City will play Crystal Palace later in the season in their game in hand, with the date yet to be confirmed. If they reach the FA Cup final, they will also need to have their scheduled Premier League game for that weekend moved, potentially giving them another game in hand.

Being the chasers and not the ones being chased is a role that has suited City very well in the past.

Arsenal’s April struggles

The 2023/24 season saw Arsenal also suffer a defeat around exactly the same time as their recent loss to Bournemouth, losing to Aston Villa 2-0 at home on April 14.

It is hard to find much fault in the Gunners’ second half of that season. That was the only loss they suffered in the league from January 20 onwards, with their only other dropped points coming in the goalless draw away at Manchester City.

In the 2022/23 season, meanwhile, Arsenal endured a dismal April, winning just one of their five league games – drawing with Liverpool, Southampton and West Ham and being thrashed 4-1 by title rivals City.

Arsenal have lost a considerable seven Premier League games in April under Arteta’s management. Contrastingly, City have won 19 and drawn two of their past 21 games in April.

Arsenal have the perfect chance to ensure their recent history in April does not repeat itself by going to Manchester City and winning on Sunday, but defeat would mean the similarities between this and previous title races between the two only increase.

Arsenal’s record at City

Arsenal have not beaten City at the Etihad since January 2015, when Arsenal won 2-0 thanks to goals from Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud.

They have drawn their last two games at the Etihad, however, offering Arsenal fans some encouragement. A draw on Sunday would at least keep Arsenal in control of the title race, but victory would be a monumental boost to their title hopes.

Arsenal ended up being punished for their goalless draw at City in the 2023/24 season, with City going on a fantastic run to end the season while Arsenal’s loss to Villa proved costly.

Will that change their approach on Sunday? Only time will tell.