The weather forecast for Kentucky Derby Day suggests a chance of rain, as it has historically rained on Derby Day nearly half the time over the past 150 years. The National Weather Service is monitoring conditions for May 2.
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Is it going to rain on Kentucky Derby Day? Louisville weather forecast
Almost every aspect of the Kentucky Derby is unpredictable, from the race outcome to the weather.
There always seems to be a chance of rain during the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. And, according to the National Weather Service, Kentucky Derby Day has included rain at some point nearly half of the time over the last 150 years.
Will May 2 see rain for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby? Or will the 3-year-old colts trample on a fast track?
Here's what to know about Saturday's forecast and Kentucky Derby weather history:
A mix of clouds and sunshine with a high of 64 degrees and low of 43 degrees with winds blowing northwest at 10-15 miles per hour are expected for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs, according to The Weather Channel's website.
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
The weather forecast for Kentucky Derby Day 2024 indicates a chance of rain, but specific conditions will be confirmed closer to the date.
Historically, it has rained on Kentucky Derby Day nearly half of the time over the last 150 years.
The Kentucky Derby in 2024 is scheduled for May 2.
The Kentucky Derby is held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado walks by a sign honoring Sovereignty -- which he rode to a win in the 2025 Kentucky Derby -- at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabe outside trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026.
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Chief Wallabee is walked back his stall at trainer Bill Mott's barn on the backside of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 19, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Incredibolt in his stall at Trainer Riley Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Pin Oak Stud won the Virginia Derby. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mott has Chief Wallabee in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott in the stall of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott carries the saddlecloth of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working in his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott on the backside during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Trainer Riley Mott watches training on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee for trainer Bill Mott. Alvarado won the 2025 Kentucky Derby aboard Sovereignty. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
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Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabee during a morning workout at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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Jockey Junior Alvarado walks by a sign honoring Sovereignty -- which he rode to a win in the 2025 Kentucky Derby -- at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
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Kentucky Derby 152 contender Chief Wallabe outside trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs. The horses enters the Kentucky Derby off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. He currently ranks 17th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 50. April 19, 2026.
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
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Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
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Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. The horse's most recent race was in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, where he finished third. April 20, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Chief Wallabee is walked back his stall at trainer Bill Mott's barn on the backside of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 19, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Wonder Dean works at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Trainer is Daisuke Takayanagi. The horse has earned $725,172 so far. April 20, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Incredibolt in his stall at Trainer Riley Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Pin Oak Stud won the Virginia Derby. April 20, 2026
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Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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Kentucky Derby 152 contender Albus on the track with exercise rider Antonio Garcia aboard for training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bill Mott at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Mott has Chief Wallabee in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. April 20, 2026
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Trainer Riley Mott in the stall of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working at his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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Trainer Riley Mott carries the saddlecloth of 152nd Kentucky Derby contender Albus while working in his barn on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby contender Albus on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Riley Mott. April 20, 2026
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Trainer Riley Mott on the backside during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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Trainer Riley Mott watches training on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Riley, who has two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby -- Albus and Incredibolt -- is the son of Derby winning trainer Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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Jockey Junior Alvarado on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee for trainer Bill Mott. Alvarado won the 2025 Kentucky Derby aboard Sovereignty. April 20, 2026
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Jockey Junior Alvarado at trainer Bill Mott's barn at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. He's slated to ride Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee. April 20, 2026
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Jockey Junior Alvarado aboard 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Chief Wallabee during morning workouts at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The horse is trained by Bill Mott. April 20, 2026
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Japanese horse Wonder Dean, a contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, on the track with Churchill Downs veteran rider Mike Crowder aboard his pony at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
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2026 Kentucky Derby horse Right To Party on the track during a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. April 20, 2026
Sovereignty won the 151st Run for the Roses on a sloppy track after 0.37 inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs last year. It ended a five-year streak of Derby horses running on a fast track. The high of the cloudy day was 65 degrees.
According to the National Weather Service, 72 out of 150 Derby Days (48%) have experienced rain at some point during the day.
Louisville reached a high of 94 degrees during the Derby in 1959. Tommy Lee won the race that year.
The 1940 and 1957 Derbies were a chilly 36 degrees when the race took place with Gallahadion and Iron Liege, respectively, taking the crown.
Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit atacubit@gannett.comand follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast, Louisville, KY predictions May 2