Is there merit in trading back late in the first round?

TL;DR

Trading back late in the first round has shown a low success rate for Pro Bowl selections, with only 12.5% of picks from 25-32 making the Pro Bowl in the last decade. Teams that traded down have often acquired valuable players, suggesting a strategic advantage in moving back.

Key points

12.5% of late first-round picks made the Pro Bowl in the last decade
Teams trading back have acquired valuable players
19 trade downs occurred from picks 25-32 in the last decade
46 players were selected through those trade downs
Successful trades include notable players like TreDavious White

Buffalo Bills

Brandon Beane, general manager of then Buffalo Bills, heads off the field at the end of practice at the Buffalo Bills training camp at St. John Fisher University in Pittsford on July 24, 2025. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images For almost 20 years now, the Buffalo Rumblings comments section has been a treasure trove of smart, insightful — often hilarious — quips from Buffalo Bills fans. Late in my first week on the job, I found two comments on the article I wrote about the Bills’ 2026 draft being viewed by executives and scouts around the league as ‘modernized thinking’ that sparked my interest in doing a study. By the way, I welcome these type of discussions in comment sections in future, ones that pose a question that leads to me nerd-ing out and generates an article for the site (making a series from this would be amazing). This particular article was born from a bozzman1106 comment that stated the following:

If we look at picks 25-32 over the last 10 years, there have only been 10 players selected in that range that have made a Pro Bowl with 2 of those 8 making it as alternates. Of those 8 players, only 2 have made the Pro Bowl more then once, TJ Watt and Tre’Davious White. So when people want to complain about not taking a guy at the end of the first round and trading back into the second round, you have a 12.5% chance of selecting a guy at the end of the first round that could make a Pro Bowl.

So if I am a GM and I have a chance to do what Beane did and move out of the first while then moving up in rounds 3 and 4, why would you not do that? Then Hornell Fred added a very logical retort: The opening paragraph in Fred’s comment sent me on a research mission. I assumed the initial 10-year time frame from bozzman1106’s comment was 2016 – 2025 (10 draft classes), so I checked all those 80 picks from No. 25 – No. 32 overall to see the results for all of the teams. I counted 12 of 80 picks, which equals 15%, yet bozzman1106’s likely did not include TreDavious White or who were made with trade downs initially made before pick No. 25, which got him to 12.5% (10 out of 80). After the recheck, I realized there can be secondary labels to distinguish how those picks were acquired. Of those 12 overall Pro Bowl selections made over the past 10 drafts at picks No. 25 – No. 32, I divided based on whether the selection was an original pick, acquired after a trade down initially outside our late first-round pick range, or acquired after a trade up into it. **Original pick Pro Bowlers**: (4 of 12, 33%) : DT Clark : EDGE T.J. Watt Seahawks: LB Ravens: LB **Pick acquired with trade down before pick No. 25** (2 of 12, 16.6%) Bills: CB TreDavious White Ravens: OC Tyler Linderbaum **Trade ups into picks No. 25 – No. 32** (6 of 12, 50%) Browns: TE Njoku Ravens: QB Washington: EDGE : EDGE Jaguars: LB Bills: TE Here are the results of the juiciest aspect of this study — what did teams get that *traded back* from those picks between No. 25 and No. 32 over the past 10 years? You know, what the Bills have down twice now since 2024. Turns out there were 19 trade downs by teams that held a pick in that range the past decade. *(I did not count prior trades that involved a veteran before the draft, or the 2024 trade between the Broncos and Saints that included Sean Payton.)* Those 19 trade downs netted the following collection of 46 players. *(Subsequent trade down / ups which used some of the picks acquired in the original trade down were counted.)* Of the group of 46, those in **bold** have been named to a Pro Bowl, even as an alternate.

Q&A

What percentage of late first-round picks have made the Pro Bowl?

Only 12.5% of players selected between picks 25-32 over the last decade have made the Pro Bowl.

Which teams have successfully traded back from late first-round picks?

Teams like the Bills and Ravens have successfully traded back and still acquired Pro Bowl talent, including players like TreDavious White and Tyler Linderbaum.

How many players were selected from trades involving late first-round picks?

Over the past decade, 19 trade downs from picks 25-32 resulted in the selection of 46 players.

What are the advantages of trading back in the NFL draft?

Trading back can allow teams to acquire multiple picks and potentially select more valuable players, as evidenced by the success of teams that have done so in recent drafts.