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Bobby Witt Jr. is currently leading the American League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) as of May 2026, sparking discussions about his potential MVP candidacy. Despite his strong performance, questions remain about his home run totals and competition from other top players.
As of May 2026, Bobby Witt Jr. is leading the American League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Bobby Witt Jr. faces competition from players like Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh, who have had historically great seasons in recent years.
Since 2014, the average position player MVP winner has a batting average of .314 and hits approximately 42 home runs with a wRC+ of 176.
Bobby Witt Jr. currently lacks the home run totals typically associated with MVP winners, which could affect his candidacy despite his overall value.
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| Player | Year | AVG | wRC+ | HR | fWAR rank | bWAR rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 2025 | .331 | 204 | 53 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron Judge | 2024 | .322 | 220 | 58 | 1 | 1 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 2023 | .337 | 171 | 41 | 1 | 2 |
| Aaron Judge | 2022 | .311 | 206 | 62 | 1 | 1 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 2022 | .317 | 175 | 35 | 3 | 2 |
| Bryce Harper | 2021 | .309 | 170 | 35 | 3 | 9 |
| Cody Bellinger | 2019 | .305 | 161 | 47 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Trout | 2019 | .291 | 177 | 45 | 2 | 3 |
| Christian Yelich | 2018 | .326 | 167 | 36 | 1 | 1 |
| Mookie Betts | 2018 | .346 | 185 | 32 | 1 | 1 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 2017 | .281 | 158 | 59 | 2 | 1 |
| Jose Altuve | 2017 | .346 | 160 | 24 | 2 | 1 |
| Kris Bryant | 2016 | .292 | 148 | 39 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Trout | 2016 | .315 | 170 | 29 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryce Harper | 2015 | .330 | 197 | 42 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Donaldson | 2015 | .297 | 154 | 41 | 2 | 2 |
| Mike Trout | 2014 | .287 | 167 | 36 | 1 | 1 |
| AVERAGE | .314 | 176 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.8 | |
| First, the best way to get an MVP award is by being the best player, but the thing about that is that there are other great players also trying to be the best player. Kris Bryantâs 2016 is a prime example here: a 7.5 fWAR season is, in the context of other MVPs, just ok. But no one else in the NL was as good, and so that 7.5 fWAR cleared. Witt, on the other hand, has had to content with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh the last two years, both of whom put together historically great campaigns. Just no fighting that. | ||||||
| Second, MVP award winners clear a gigantic offensive bar. The average position player MVP winner since 2014 has had a batting average of .314 and has swatted 42 home runs en route to a wRC+ of 176. Thatâs the *average* hitter. In Wittâs best season (so far) in 2024, he was double-digit home runs away and seven points of wRC+ away from both figures. | ||||||
| Third, there is simply a bias towards offense in MVP award voting. Most votes go how the WAR total goes, with nearly all winners on this list ranking as the top or second-best WAR in both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference versions. There were only three players who won | ||||||
| MVP and ranked below second place in either fWAR or bWAR: Mike Trout in 2019, Bryce Harper in 2021, and Paul Goldschmidt in 2022. In all three situations, the voters prioritized bat over glove, overlooking WAR to do so. In 2019, it was Alex Bregman and Marcus Semien who lost out. In 2021, it was Trea Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr. who lost out. And in 2022, it was Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado who lost out. | ||||||
| Wittâs game particularly vulnerable to the biases of MVP voters. Witt is a very good hitter who also happens to be the best defensive player in baseball and also one of the deadliest basestealers in the league. But Witt is not going to hit 50 home runs. Heâs not going to walk at a 15% clip. Heâs probably never going to hit a 169 wRC+ again. Thereâs a reason that none of the platinum glove winners have ever won an MVP; Arenado came the closest, but again, even though he accrued more WAR than Paul Goldschmidt, voters thought Goldschmidtâs offense was more important than Arenadoâs defense. | ||||||
| So, is it Wittâs year to win MVP? I doubt it. Thatâs not because I donât think Witt is good; on the contrary, I think Witt is clearly the best player in baseball because how he can impact the game every second heâs on the field. Iâm just jaded about the process and about what voters value. I hope it is Wittâs year to win MVP, because he certainly deserves it for how good heâs been over the last two plus seasons. |