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It’s Lottery Day!
TL;DR
Lottery Day is here, marking the start of speculation for the upcoming draft. Last year's surprise pick saw Dallas land at #1 despite only a 1.8% chance.
Key points
- Lottery Day marks the start of NBA draft speculation.
- Dallas had a 1.8% chance to secure the #1 pick last year.
- Mock drafts are popular despite being speculative.
RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 2: Cameron Boozer #12 of the Duke Blue Devils defends a shot by Scottie Ebube #12 of the NC State Wolfpack in the first half at Lenovo Center on March 2, 2026 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The annual run-up to the draft is impressively idiotic: everyone draws out mock drafts and figures who is going where, and why…all before the lottery is set.
Why bother? You can’t know anything prior to that. It’s fun speculation, and it’s good content, but it’s just speculation.
One of the great examples of this is last year’s chase of former Blue Devil Cooper Flagg. How many people had Dallas sneaking in at #1 with a 1.8% chance?
So the real draft speculation starts this afternoon a little after 3:00, when we know the draft order. Currently, the Top 5 picks are usually projected to be, in some order, AJ Dybantsa of BYU, Darryn Peterson of Kansas, UNC’s Caleb Wilson, Darius Acuff of Arkansas, and Duke’s Cameron Boozer.
Their strengths and weaknesses are well-known; now we’ll see how they match with team needs and priorities.
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Q&A
What is Lottery Day in basketball?
Lottery Day refers to the event where NBA teams determine their draft order through a lottery system.
How did Dallas secure the #1 pick last year?
Dallas secured the #1 pick last year despite having only a 1.8% chance, showcasing the unpredictability of the lottery.
Why do fans engage in mock drafts before the lottery?
Fans engage in mock drafts for fun speculation and to create content, even though the actual draft order is determined by the lottery.
