JDM Vs. Prates Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 15: Jack Della Maddalena of Australia enters the Octagon in the UFC welterweight championship fight during the UFC 322 event at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight knockout artists Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates will collide this weekend (Sat., May 2, 2026) inside RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, for UFC Perth.

“JDM” was given a very tall task in his first title defense opposite pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev, and just about nothing went well for the Australian knockout artist. Fortunately, the 29-year-old talent is back on the horse six months later, ready to remind any naysayers about the skills that brought him to UFC gold in the first place. That said, his path back to the win column is no walk in the park, either. Prates has consistently lit up the Octagon with his tremendous Muay Thai, securing six outrageous knockouts in less than two full years on UFC’s roster. The Brazilian is a special talent in his own right, hunting for his first-ever UFC title shot.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Della Maddalena vs. Prates Betting Odds

• Jack Della Maddalena victory: -104
• Jack Della Maddalena via TKO/KO/DQ: +270
• Jack Della Maddalena via submission: +1400
• Jack Della Maddalena via decision: +350
• Carlos Prates victory: -122
• Carlos Prates via TKO/KO/DQ: +165
• Carlos Prates via submission: +2200
• Carlos Prates via decision: +500
• Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

How Della Maddalena Wins

Ignore the Islam domination for a moment: Della Maddalena is still a very well-rounded athlete. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with tricky scrambles and getups, Della Maddalena is a combination puncher first and foremost. His body work is nasty, and “JDM” has finished 12 opponents via knockout.

For a moment, we’re going to discount Della Maddalena’s underrated kicking and focus on the big picture: this is a Muay Thai vs. boxing matchup. As the boxer, Della Maddalena wants to work inside of Prates’ kicks and long left hands. If he can close that distance while keeping his guard high, Della Maddalena will then be in position to build his own combinations and ideally catch Prates pulling away.

This is, of course, easier said than done. Perhaps the most important adjustment the Australian can make is to emphasis his feints and false starts. Ian Garry did tremendous work in dulling Prates’ timing not only with his lateral movement — which applies less for “JDM” here — but also with his shoulder and hip fakes. Della Maddalena should be looking to draw out offense from Prates to counter, which will then make Prates more reluctant to sit down on his counter shots.

How Prates Wins

Prates hits unbelievably hard for a fairly lanky Welterweight. Even his glancing punches can separate opponents from their senses, and then his opposition must also consider the spinning elbows, stepping knees and powerful kicks into the open side.

Against Della Maddalena, I’d like to see a more kick-heavy approach than usual for Prates, which is standard strategy against an opponent that likes to box. “JDM” is a switch-hitter, so Prates should hit what’s available. If the Aussie is Southpaw, he should be targeting the calf like Islam Makhachev did so successfully, while a right-handed Della Maddalena will be susceptible to powerful liver and head kicks.

Winning the kick battle is the first step towards dictating who’s on the front foot and where exchanges play out. Prates is at his best when stalking his opposition, cornering them into the fence and then capitalizing with well-timed intercepting blows when they try to fight their way back to center. Della Maddalena is a powerful hitter himself — he’s not just going to hang back and let Prates kick him forever.

Put the Australian in a bad spot, and he’s likely to walk into something nasty.

Della Maddalena vs. Prates Prediction

There’s going to be a whole lot of firepower locked in the cage in Australia’s “City of Light.”

It would not surprise me terribly to see either man spark the other in an early exchange. The stakes are going to be high, and the atmosphere will be quite tense as the two knockout artists aim to line up something devastating. There’s little room for error on either side, which is the reason the relative pick ‘em odds make plenty of sense.

With all that said, I still favor Prates. He has a power advantage, and Della Maddalena tends to get hit a few times even when victorious. In his fairly competitive victory over Kevin Holland, we also saw the boxer struggle to close distance a bit in the face of a long, accurate straight. With more weapons in his arsenal and more overall power, Prates ultimately has more ways to win.

Can Della Maddalena recreate the success of Garry? It’s possible, but that’s far from his typical striking style.

Prediction: Prates via knockout

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