Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, post positions, picks, date, time: Renegade, Further Ado, Commandment predictions

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis

One of Demling's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He's completely fading Renegade, the morning-line favorite at 4-1. Renegade is coming off a win at the Arkansas Derby, but unfortunately for Renegade, success is not guaranteed at Churchill Downs despite the showing. In fact, only three other horses that won the Arkansas Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah in 2015 was the last horse to do so, while the other Arkansas Derby winners who went on to win at Churchill Downs were Sunny's Halo in 1983 and Smarty Jones in 2004. That lack of success by Arkansas Derby winners is not lost on Demling, who is finding value elsewhere. See who to back at SportsLine.

Demling also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby prediction for Commandment, who is the half-brother of Renegade and is listed at 6-1 in the Kentucky Derby odds. Commandment placed fourth in his racing debut in October 2025 but has only tasted victory since. He's won his last four starts, which started off with a Churchill Downs victory in November and most recently included the G1 Florida Derby in late March.

Commandment's top Equibase Speed Figure is 99, which is middle-of-the-pack, as there are eight others in this year's field with an equal or better speed figure. Trainer Brad Cox will try to get the most out of that speed as he seeks his second Derby victory. Cox, a native of Louisville, won in his Derby debut in 2021 with Mandaloun, who is another half-brother of Commandment. However, the trainer hasn't prevailed with his 10 Derby starters since then, as they've had an average finish of 10.4. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the latest FanDuel Racing promo, which lets users bet $5 and get $25 in bonuses:

Demling has also locked in his 2026 Kentucky Derby picks for Further Ado (6-1). The Brad Cox-trained horse concluded his 2-year-old season with a G2 victory at Churchill Downs. As a 3-year-old he was runner-up in Tampa and then prevailed at the Blue Grass Stakes. The son of Gun Runner, Further Ado's sire won multiple G1 races in his day but placed third at the 2016 Kentucky Derby. After having multiple jockeys over his six career races, a new name will be aboard Further Ado come Saturday. Veteran John Velazquez will ride the horse for the first time, as Further Ado now gets as experienced a Derby jockey as there is. Velazquez has three Kentucky Derby wins across his 26 prior rides, though his last four horses all placed 15th or worse. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby bets at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is also high on a longshot who "demolished the field" in his last start. Anyone who backs this colt could hit it big. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds