Kentucky Derby 2026 picks: Betting predictions for who will win it all
TL;DR
The Kentucky Derby 2026 features 20 horses, with Renegade favored at 5-1 odds. Further Ado, starting from post 18, is also a strong contender after recent wins.
Key points
- Kentucky Derby 2026 features 20 horses
- Renegade is favored at 5-1 odds
- Further Ado has won at Keeneland and Churchill Downs
- Post one is historically challenging for horses
- Last winner from post one was Ferdinand in 1986
Mentioned in this story
The Kentucky Derby is the best betting race on the Thoroughbred racing calendar every year. The race brings out hardcore and casual fans who want to have a wagering interest on The Run for the Roses. Some things change but the way the first leg of the Triple Crown captivates doesn't.
Add in 20 horses will be looking to win and there are that many betting interests and there is opportunity to get a great price on the favorites as well as the long shots. For example, this year's live Kentucky Derby odds have favored Renegade tracking around 5-1. The chalk in the Kentucky Derby is going to pay around $12 for a $2 win wager if odds remain the same. Try and find another horse race in 2026 that gives you that kind of opportunity.
Renegade will leave from the rail. That has become a "dreaded" starting post for decades. The last time a horse broke from post one and won the Kentucky Derby was 1986 when Bill Shoemaker guided Ferdinand to the win. Renegade will be closing strongly. Will he be able to navigate a good enough trip to earn the garland of roses?
The dazzling Further Ado carries the No. 18. He is coming off a spectacular win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. Further Ado loves Keeneland, having won by open lengths twice there. He also has won at Churchill Downs, always a good sign. Further Ado figures to get the jump on his foes and should be near the lead at the top of the stretch when the other closers have ground to make up.
The Japanese horses have become an international force. Danon Bourbon will leave from post seven and is floating around 14-1. Will he be the first horse from Japan to win the Kentucky Derby?
A horse that has been under the radar this week is Florida Derby winner Commandment. He will break from post six and is 7-1. Those are great odds on a horse with strong form entering the race. The horse that was nipped by Commandment in the Florida Derby is The Puma, who leaves from post nine and is 8-1 thus far. The Puma is sneaky tough and has to be considered a huge factor in this race.
When playing the Kentucky Derby, odds allow for multiple win bets because of the odds. One can easily spread on two or three horses to win and still come away with a healthy profit.
Kentucky Derby best bets to make in 2026
Win: Further Ado, The Puma
Place: Commandment
Show: Danon Bourbon
The best Superfecta box (first four finishers) to make at the Kentucky Derby
Further Ado, The Puma, Commandment, Danon Bourbon (18-9-6-7)
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Kentucky Derby picks: Best bets, winners and superfecta for 2026 race
Q&A
What are the current odds for Renegade in the Kentucky Derby 2026?
Renegade is currently favored at approximately 5-1 odds for the Kentucky Derby 2026.
When was the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from post one?
The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from post one was Ferdinand in 1986.
How has Further Ado performed leading up to the Kentucky Derby 2026?
Further Ado has shown strong performance, winning the Blue Grass at Keeneland and also having victories at Churchill Downs.
