Kentucky Derby Favorites Who’s-Who: Blue Grass Winner Further Ado

As usual when it comes to money on the Kentucky Derby barrelhead, the handicapping value of Further Ado’s Blue Grass run as factored into his Derby chances remains fraught. Further Ado was second on the Derby points leaderboard only to Commandment. Obviously, this week’s handicapping is no longer about the points, but the points accrued by each horse do still lend us a kind of mathematical reduction of past performances, if we accept the broad premise that certain races and fields on the road to the Derby mean more than others.

That caveat noted, mounting a stretch run that opens up that gargantuan sort of lead in the last three furlongs argues for more than just the power of this one young athlete. It’s an argument for the health of the sport. Specifically, this always needs to be remembered: the Kentucky Derby is a tough go for three-year-old equine athletes, each of whom is maturing at vastly different rates. Their characters and racing preferences are notoriously patchy; their ability to focus on any one task under pressure is as wobbly as any two-legged teenager’s would be; and not least, their vulnerability to being spooked — laboring under Churchill’s infamously clamorous crowd, band and infield — is infinite.

The point is that Further Ado showed a tremendous ability and a single-minded focus on getting to the wire well out in front in the Blue Grass. This ability to focus is critical in a Kentucky Derby, which is why we often see late additions of blinders on some of the colts. The Derby is longer than any race they have run in their lives, the learning curve is steep and the pitfalls — both tactical and veterinary — are legion. The Derby fields are by orders of magnitude larger and more ferociously competitive than any that any contender has been in. In the heat of all that, those that do succeed must stave off more demons than they ever knew existed. Quiet, steady, clean-running achievers such as 2025’s champion, William Mott’s Sovereignty, are few and far between.

These are the reasons that, among the four strongest colts coming into the Derby, an ultra-dominant 11-length show such as that put on by Further Ado stands out. He wasn’t just holding on neck-and-neck in the last furlong or having to overtake other contenders. He was the master of an entirely different race, one taking place far away from the one in which his erstwhile competition was running.

Pre-post-position draw, all of the above is why Further Ado rose to second-favorite in TwinSpires’ “fair” odds, at 5-1, hard on the heels in the pre-draw estimation of Renegade, at 9-2 (or 4.5/1). Five-tenths of a point separated them. They’re in that same 1-2 arrangement now, but with Renegade coming down a half-point to 4-1 and Further Ado rising a full point to 6-1 in the morning line.

As ever, the money at the track often has other ideas than the morning line does, so the corollary to the annual 20-horse Derby melee is that it’s up for grabs whether Further Ado’s most recent run will sway the odds thinking as the handicapping gets honed down to a white-hot dagger point with post time looming. As if to prove this point — about Further Ado and about the Blue Grass generally — Churchill’s own Derby Future Wagers book closed before the Blue Grass was run, which had the oddly hilarious effect of parking Further Ado at 17-1, a dang good price given his copious talent, and that could well bring some fun pocket change to some of the passionate Futures players. By contrast, Arkansas Derby winner Renegade closed as the Future Wager pool’s Derby favorite at 4-1, spot on where he is now. In short, the money will have much more talking to do about Further Ado.

Odds wrinkles aside, what of the horse? Who is that very game Further Ado under Velasquez on Saturday? Let’s begin by noting the obvious: He’s a half-brother to 2024’s Breeders’ Cup Classic victor Sierra Leone. Their sire is the white-hot Kentucky Bluegrass go-to sire, Gun Runner. Last September in the bellwether Keeneland fall yearling sale, Gun Runner yearlings broke the historical record, kept since the sale began in 1944, by bringing the top price in each of the sale’s four sessions. Further Ado is right in line with that pedigree, solid runner, can take the distance, able to focus, strong desire to do everything he can to get there first. It’s difficult to say that any race run by any three-year old is “proof” of anything, but in Further Ado’s case the Blue Grass win was a sterling indication of his DNA.

Bottom line, we don’t know what kind of trip he’s going to get on Saturday, but breaking from the far outside in the Churchill gate won’t hurt him. He’ll have all he can do to deal with the traffic and get by his co-favorites, but if any one of them has a shot at beating the others, Further Ado is carrying the tool kit to do it.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com