The weather forecast for the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs indicates promising conditions, with race day expected to remain dry. After stormy weather leading up to the event, sunshine is anticipated to improve track conditions.
Key points
2026 Kentucky Derby is in three days
Current forecasts suggest dry race day
Stormy weather created muddy conditions
Thursday expected to bring plenty of sunshine
Friday will start cloudy but improve by afternoon
Kentucky Derby weather: Forecast shows promising conditions at Churchill Downs
The countdown to the 2026 Kentucky Derby is down to just three days, as twenty of the world’s top thoroughbreds prepare to compete for the garland of roses. Despite stormy conditions in the days leading up to the 152nd edition of the Run for the Roses, current forecasts suggest race day itself may remain dry, offering ideal conditions for both horses and spectators.
Thunderstorms in Wednesday's forecast created muddy conditions at Churchill Downs' legendary one-mile dirt track, but the Weather Channel predicts conditions will clear up.
Thursday, April 30, is expected to bring plenty of sunshine, helping to dry out the track ahead of the horse-racing festivities. Friday will start out cloudy, but is projected to see the sun break through by the afternoon, allowing final preparations to take place under improved conditions.
On Saturday, May 2 – the day of the Kentucky Derby – temperatures are forecast to be cooler, with a high near 60 degrees. The morning should feature a mix of clouds and sun, while the afternoon may turn overcast. Although it may be on the chilly side, no rain is expected for the main event, predicting that the Run for the Roses will proceed without weather-related issues.
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Q&A
What is the weather forecast for the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The forecast predicts dry conditions on race day, following stormy weather earlier in the week.
How will the weather affect the track conditions at Churchill Downs?
The track is expected to dry out due to sunshine on Thursday and Friday, improving conditions for the race.
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby scheduled to take place?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is scheduled for May 2, 2026.
What are the expected conditions leading up to the Kentucky Derby?
Stormy weather is expected in the days prior, but conditions are forecasted to clear up by race day.
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St. Elizabeth Catholic Charities celebrates as they cross the finish line at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Bed Races held at Broadbent Arena Monday evening, April 27, 2026.
Flowers in the Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, a week before the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby, on April 24, 2026.
John King and his daughter, Ghauni, 4, watch as the first hot air balloons lift at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Balloon Glow Thursday night at Waterfront Park on April 23, 2026.
Levi Shank, left, and Amanda Regier run in costume following the start of the 2026 Kentucky Derby Festival Marathon and mini Marathon on Saturday, April 25, 2026 in Louisville Kentucky.
The Japanese team of Wonder Dean celebrated their horse's No. 10 post position after the 2026 Kentucky Derby Draw at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25, 2026.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Fulleffort, trained by Brad Cox, was ridden by Edvin Vargas during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Fulleffort has seven career races with three wins, two second-place finishes and one third-place finish.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Silent Tactic during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Silent Tactic is trained by Mark Casse.
The Shady Rays balloon lifts off as hot air balloons take flight at Bowman Field for the KDF Great BalloonFest Rush Hour Race in Louisville on April 24, 2026.
People gathered around to see the Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses arrive at the main gap during morning training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 28, 2026.
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Spectators line East Broadway to catch a glimpse of the floats during the Zoeller Pump Company Pegasus Parade in Louisville, Kentucky, Sunday, April 26, 2026.
The trophy given to the winner of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25.
2026 Kentucky Derby trainer Todd Pletcher on the backside watching his horses work out at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on April 27, 2028. Pletcher has 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Renegade.
2026 Kentucky Derby horse and favorite Renegade getting bathed after working at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.
A crowd gathers on the backside at sunrise during Dawn at the Downs at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
Veteran jockey and two-time Kentucky Derby winner Mike Smith, who will pilot 2026 Kentucky Derby hopeful So Happy, on April 24, 2026.
A unicylcist waves to the crowd during the 2026 Pegasus Parade on Broadway Avenue in Louisville, Kentucky, on Sunday, April 26, 2026.
A crowd gathers to watch as 2026 Kentucky Derby contender Six Speed walks in circles before the special training time for Derby and Oaks horses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 24, 2026. The horse is trained by Bhupat Seamer.
1 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
1 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
2 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
St. Elizabeth Catholic Charities celebrates as they cross the finish line at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Bed Races held at Broadbent Arena Monday evening, April 27, 2026.
3 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Flowers in the Winner's Circle at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, a week before the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby, on April 24, 2026.
4 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
John King and his daughter, Ghauni, 4, watch as the first hot air balloons lift at the Kentucky Derby Festival's Great Balloon Glow Thursday night at Waterfront Park on April 23, 2026.
5 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Levi Shank, left, and Amanda Regier run in costume following the start of the 2026 Kentucky Derby Festival Marathon and mini Marathon on Saturday, April 25, 2026 in Louisville Kentucky.
6 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
The Japanese team of Wonder Dean celebrated their horse's No. 10 post position after the 2026 Kentucky Derby Draw at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25, 2026.
7 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Fulleffort, trained by Brad Cox, was ridden by Edvin Vargas during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Fulleffort has seven career races with three wins, two second-place finishes and one third-place finish.
8 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse Silent Tactic during a morning workout on April 23, 2026 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Silent Tactic is trained by Mark Casse.
9 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
The Shady Rays balloon lifts off as hot air balloons take flight at Bowman Field for the KDF Great BalloonFest Rush Hour Race in Louisville on April 24, 2026.
10 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
People gathered around to see the Kentucky Derby and Oaks horses arrive at the main gap during morning training at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 28, 2026.
11 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A horse is bathed after morning workouts during Dawn at the Downs on the backside at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
12 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Spectators line East Broadway to catch a glimpse of the floats during the Zoeller Pump Company Pegasus Parade in Louisville, Kentucky, Sunday, April 26, 2026.
13 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
The trophy given to the winner of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 25.
14 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby trainer Todd Pletcher on the backside watching his horses work out at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on April 27, 2028. Pletcher has 2026 Kentucky Derby horse Renegade.
15 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
2026 Kentucky Derby horse and favorite Renegade getting bathed after working at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2026. The horse is trained by Todd Pletcher.
16 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A crowd gathers on the backside at sunrise during Dawn at the Downs at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, ahead of the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
17 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
Veteran jockey and two-time Kentucky Derby winner Mike Smith, who will pilot 2026 Kentucky Derby hopeful So Happy, on April 24, 2026.
18 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A unicylcist waves to the crowd during the 2026 Pegasus Parade on Broadway Avenue in Louisville, Kentucky, on Sunday, April 26, 2026.
19 / 19
Check out scenes as anticipation builds leading up to the Kentucky Derby
A crowd gathers to watch as 2026 Kentucky Derby contender Six Speed walks in circles before the special training time for Derby and Oaks horses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 24, 2026. The horse is trained by Bhupat Seamer.
The weather is expected to be cloudy initially, with skies clearing to partly cloudy later. Temperatures will reach a high of 61F and a low of 41F.
Saturday, May 2:
The weather forecast predicts periods of clouds and sunshine in the morning, with cloudy conditions persisting throughout the day. Temperatures will peak at 60°F and drop to a low of 38°F.
When is 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 152nd Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs is set for Saturday, May 2, 2026. Fans can watch the Kentucky Derby on NBC and USA Network, with streaming options on Peacock.
