Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland pick, odds, time: UFC 328

Sean Strickland UFC 328 preview

Sean Strickland, UFC 328 media day interview

Staple info:

• Record: 30-7 MMA, 17-7 UFC
• Height: 6'1" Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76"
• Last fight: TKO win over Anthony Hernandez (Feb. 21, 2026)
• Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

• • Former UFC middleweight champion
• • King of the Cage middleweight title
• • Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
• • 12 KO victories
• • 4 submission wins
• • 9 first-round finishes
• • 24-4 in the middleweight division
• • Consistent pace and pressure
• • Long and accurate jab
• ^ Coming forward or off the backfoot
• • Solid inside of the clinch
• ^ Strikes well off the breaks
• • Underrated wrestling ability
• ^ Defensively and offensively
• • Good transitional grappler

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland breakdown: Middleweight maelstrom

The main event in New Jersey features a middleweight title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland.

Despite coming from a wrestling base, Khamzat Chimaev appears to be comfortable striking from both stances. The Chechen fighter can fire off snappy jabs from either side, which, in turn, help him follow up with power shots.

Unless his opponent carries a decent grappling pedigree, Chimaev usually wastes little time extending striking exchanges before looking to change his levels and wrestle. However, in fights that are extended, we’ve seen Chimaev play a bit more with open-stance looks on the feet.

Whether Chimaev is throwing his favored front kick or looking to line up a wicked right hand, he seems to be gaining a taste for open-stance affairs. That said, Chimaev’s skills don’t exactly shine through in the defensive department, so the 32-year-old will need to make sure he respects the shots of Strickland.

Fighting to his frame, Stickland does a decent job of staying long with the occasional front teep and a series of stinging jabs. Whether he is circling with his jab off the counter or connecting it to crosses down the center line, the jab is a shot that Strickland has had a nice feel for since entering the organization.

When feeling in stride, Strickland isn’t afraid to shift stances mid-combination to better target fleeing foes. Opposite southpaw opponents like Krzysztof Jotko, Strickland was able to utilize those shifts to fuel a steady dose of low kicks that were quite effective.

Still, despite being a fighter who can do his share of countering, Strickland himself is not immune to being countered due to his upright posture and a propensity to sometimes move and follow in straight lines.

However, since teaming up with Xtreme Couture’s Eric Nicksick, Strickland has done a much better job of controlling the cage, which, in turn, helped him turn in one of the biggest upsets of 2023 when he took the title from Israel Adesanya.

Nevertheless, Strickland will still need to respect the level-changing threats coming his way if he means to maintain the striking initiative in this fight.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland point of interest: Wrestler's wrath

Feb 21, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Sean Strickland (red gloves) fights Anthony Hernandez (blue gloves) in a middleweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Considering the arguable crux of Chimaev’s game, winning the wrestling will remain paramount for both parties this weekend.

Wrestling since the age of five, Chimaev has seemingly adapted to the grappling arts like second nature. From a lightning-fast shot to incredible wherewithal within the clinch, the 11-year pro seems to have it all from a wrestling perspective.

Chimaev shows a lot of the freestyle (and even Greco) looks that you would associate with his part of the world, yet also demonstrates a lot of the positional rides that traditionally come easier to American folkstyle wrestlers. And when Chimaev took the back of Li Jingliang at UFC 267, the Chechen fighter showed off some very competent jiu-jitsu to close the show via rear-naked choke.

In fact, Chimaev has been steadily developing one of the more bulletproof MMA spin cycles I’ve seen as far as grappling in a cage goes.

Preferring to ride the corner off a rear-waist cinch, Chimaev keeps a powerful but flexible position to attack everything from trip takedowns to wrestling-style leg rides. And when fighters attempt to fight his hands, they end up giving Chimaev access to his own grips a la wrist-feeds and cross-wrist rides (aka “Dagestani handcuffs) that allow the Chechen phenom both positional advances and punching opportunities.

Nevertheless, I still believe that Chimaev cannot afford to overlook Strickland’s skills.

Sure, former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman was able to largely dominate Strickland to a decision win years ago, but other than that, Strickland has made a solid account for himself within the wrestling realm since stepping onto the UFC scene.

Offensively, Strickland still shows the ability to hit level-changing doubles when he needs to, as well as helpful shuck-by’s from the body lock position that allow him to get an angle on his opponent’s back (which are all good signs considering the damage Strickland sustained in a motorcycle accident years ago).

Defensively, Stickland has done a decent job when it comes to separating his opposition’s grips or sprawling and shutting down their takedown attempts outright. And when opponents are able to get Strickland down, the former champ has a Chuck Liddell-like determination to tripod up to his base and work himself back upright along the fence.

Still, Strickland can’t afford to be lackadaisical when it comes to covering the head and looking for separations given the stickiness of Chimaev’s spin-cycle-like grappling game.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland odds

The oddsmakers and the public heavily favor the current champion, listing Chimaev -560 and Strickland +370 via FanDuel.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland prediction, pick

Considering the unrelenting amount of hype that's been bestowed on Chimaev since touching down in the octagon, it's no surprise to see him favored this widely over a former champion at this point.

And though the current champ gets glazed more than a Krispy Kreme doughnut, Chimaev is an undeniably ferocious talent and the best first-round fighter we've seen since a prime B.J. Penn. Add in the fact that he’s put a clear focus on conditioning these past couple of camps, and Chimaev could be a real problem should he be able to properly pace himself for five frames.

Still, I suspect that Strickland will be much more competitive than the current betting spread suggests.

Aside from having one of the sport’s best game planners and cornermen in Eric Nicksick at his back, Strickland’s stamina and skills make him a deceptively tough fighter to control down the stretch. And if Strickland is able to make Chimaev work hard in the early rounds without falling prey to a submission or knockout, then the American will have some on-paper edges that he can potentially run downhill with as this battle drags on.

That said, I’m going to be very curious as to what tactical adjustments the Strickland camp will attempt to make in order to deny some of Chimaev’s win conditions in close.

Despite believing that Strickland has better wrestling and grappling than many might suspect, his propensity to tripod and turtle in transition could give Chimaev’s spin-cycle stylings carte blanche via the access he can allow to his hips via rear-waist cinches.

As a longtime member of Xtreme Couture who can honestly state biases, I’ll be cheering for my guy Nicksick to get another championship notch on his resume and for the UFC belt to be back at the gym, so to speak. But as an analyst who tries his best to stay professional and put his biases aside (mostly to my detriment, mind you), I will reluctantly pick Chimaev to edge out scorecards in a fight that I believe will be much more competitive than most are forecasting.

Prediction: Chimaev by decision

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland start time, how to watch

As the main event title fight, Chimaev and Strickland are expected to make their walks to the cage at approximately 11:15 p.m. ET. The fight streams on Paramount+.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland pick, odds, time: UFC 328