Knicks vs 76ers props for Game 3: Prediction markets for NBA Playoffs

The central storyline hanging over this crucial Game 3 is health. 76ers star center Joel Embiid missed Game 2 and remains day-to-day with an ankle injury. For New York, OG Anunoby is managing a hamstring issue after exiting Game 2 early.

Knicks vs 76ers props for Game 3

The Polymarket implied win probabilities project an incredibly tight battle for Game 3. The numbers give the Knicks only the slightest edge at 51% compared to 50% for the 76ers. With a gap of just one percentage point between the squads, the data indicates a true toss up. The 76ers returning to their home floor might be the only clear differentiator in a series the Knicks have controlled up to this point.

Knicks vs 76ers statistical matchups

Looking back at the first two games of this series, the Knicks have been dominant. In Game 1, they overwhelmed the 76ers in a 137-98 rout where Jalen Brunson torched the defense for 35 points on 12-of-18 shooting, while Mikal Bridges added 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Game 2 was a tighter affair, but the Knicks still held on for a 108-102 win behind Brunson's 26 points, Anunoby's 24 points with 4 steals, and Karl-Anthony Towns' 20-point, 10-rebound double-double. For the 76ers, Tyrese Maxey led the way with 26 points in Game 2 and VJ Edgecombe added 17, but it wasn't enough to overcome their offensive inconsistency.

However, translating that success to this semifinal series has been wildly different for each roster. Through the first two games, the Knicks have dictated the statistical narrative. The Knicks have created a glaring offensive mismatch by averaging a blistering 122.5 points per game on 57% shooting from the floor. The 76ers are lagging behind, managing just 100 points on 43% shooting. The Knicks are executing with elite ball movement, dishing out 29.5 assists per contest, while the 76ers have struggled to find an offensive rhythm with only 17.5 assists per game.

Defensively, the Knicks are forcing the issue. They average 10 steals per game through the first two in this series, and capitalize on a 76ers offense plagued by ball security issues. The 76ers are committing 18.5 turnovers per night, feeding directly into Knicks fast breaks. Add in a rebounding advantage of 38 boards per game to 33.5 for the 76ers, and the statistical gap is wide.

Jalen Brunson has been shredding the perimeter defense, meaning Tyrese Maxey must elevate his 19.5 series scoring average to keep pace.

76ers vs Knicks injury report

• Joel Embiid (Center/Forward): Day-to-day (Ankle). Embiid missed the previous matchup on May 6.
• OG Anunoby (Forward/Guard): Day-to-day (Leg). Anunoby did not return to the May 6 contest after exiting early.
• Mitchell Robinson (Center/Forward): Day-to-day (Illness). Robinson was held out of the May 6 game.

Health remains a massive question mark for both rosters entering Game 3. Being without Embiid severely limits the 76ers on both ends of the floor. For the Knicks, missing Anunoby and Robinson would significantly compromise their defensive versatility and rebounding depth.

Best player props for Knicks vs 76ers Game 3

Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (27% on Polymarket): Brunson has been scorching hot in this series, averaging 30.5 points per game on 54 percent shooting from the floor. He exploded for 35 points in Game 1 and followed up with 26 in Game 2. With the 76ers potentially missing Embiid again, their interior defense remains vulnerable, giving Brunson easy paths to the basket. His playoff usage rate of 32.1% makes him one of the most ball-dominant guards in the postseason, and Philly has not found an answer for him yet.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 Points (32% on Polymarket): Towns is averaging 18.5 points per game in this series on a blistering 68 percent shooting clip. He posted a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 2 and thrives in the paint against a 76ers frontcourt weakened by Embiid's absence. His ability to stretch the floor (67% from three in the series) forces mismatches that the 76ers simply cannot cover with their current personnel.

Tyrese Maxey Over 24.5 Points (43% on Polymarket): Maxey is the 76ers' lifeline, averaging 25.2 points per game throughout the playoffs with a team-leading usage rate of 28.0%. He scored 26 points in Game 2 and gets to the free throw line at an elite rate (92.9% FT shooting this postseason). With Embiid potentially sidelined again, even more of the offensive burden falls on Maxey's shoulders, and the home crowd should fuel an aggressive approach from Philly's star guard.

Knicks vs 76ers prediction for Game 3

Both teams want to translate their recent standalone successes into a pivotal playoff win. The Knicks bring massive momentum into this matchup following their dominant Game 1 victory, a 137-98 demolition where Brunson led the charge with 35 points on 67% shooting. The 76ers desperately need to recapture the balanced execution they displayed in Game 2, where Maxey's 26 points was supplemented by Paul George's 19 points and Kelly Oubre Jr.'s 19 points, even though it ultimately wasn't enough.

Translating that prior form into this specific playoff series has been a major struggle for the 76ers. The Knicks have dictated the tempo completely, averaging an overwhelming 122.5 points per game. Their ability to dominate the interior by generating 57 points in the paint exposes a glaring hole in the 76ers defense, a vulnerability directly tied to the lingering ankle injury of Embiid. If he remains sidelined or limited, the 76ers will continue to struggle protecting the rim against a relentless offensive attack.

While the 76ers are averaging just 100 points in this series, their offense is heavily stifled by their own mistakes. Ball security issues, to the tune of 18.5 turnovers per game, continually feed the opposing transition game. The Knicks boast an elite 2.19 assist to turnover ratio compared to a dismal 0.95 mark for the 76ers, highlighting superior execution across the board.

Although the data driven win probabilities slightly favor the 76ers on their home floor, the actual on court mismatch is too vast to ignore. The high octane offense and efficient ball movement from the Knicks make them the clear choice. Even if Anunoby is sidelined after his Game 2 exit, their depth and playmaking should be enough to overcome a roster overly reliant on Maxey to keep pace. Expect this explosive offensive momentum to conquer a hostile road environment and secure a commanding series lead.

Prediction: Knicks 114, 76ers 105