The Lakers are unprecedented +945 underdogs against the Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, marking the largest playoff underdog odds in NBA history. They face a team that swept them in the regular season with an average margin of defeat of 29.3 points.
Key points
Lakers are +945 underdogs against the Thunder.
Thunder swept the Lakers in the regular season.
Average margin of defeat for Lakers against Thunder was 29.3 points.
Game 1 is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
These odds are the largest for any team in a conference semifinal.
Mentioned in this story
JJ Redick
LakersThunder
There are underdogs, and then there are the kind of underdogs that look like they just wandered into the wrong NBA arena.
The Lakers aren’t just staring up at the Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, they’re squinting at them through a telescope.
Thankfully for the Lakers, this is not uncharted territory.
The Lakers’ Drew Timme (17) and the Thunder’s Chet Holmgren will face off again beginning Tuesday night. NBAE via Getty Images
The Lakers’ Drew Timme (17) and the Thunder’s Chet Holmgren will face off again beginning Tuesday night. NBAE via Getty Images
Ahead of their first-round playoff series against the much younger, faster and deeper Rockets, the Lakers opened as +475 underdogs. Without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, the Rockets were sitting comfortably at -650.
The Lakers didn’t just survive that series, they deconstructed it. Over the course of six grueling games, coach JJ Redick and the Lakers on the offensive glass and extra possessions. By Game 6 in Houston, the Lakers dominated those categories and held the Rockets to the lowest scoring total than any team thus far in the postseason.
Yes, did not play in five of the six games, and his injury shifted the balance, but that doesn’t erase the Lakers’ execution. Especially without their top scorer.
Now comes the Western Conference semifinals. By virtue of their victory over the Rockets in six games, the Lakers now earn the right to get absolutely smashed by the reigning champion Thunder.
The second-round odds look more like a No. 16 vs. No. 1 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
The Lakers open the series as +945 underdogs. Some books even pushed it to +1000. The Thunder are -1700 favorites. That means you’d have to lay $1,700 on to win the series just to win $100.
The Thunder’s and his teammates are heavily favored against the Lakers. NBAE via Getty Images
Those opening lines are unprecedented for the Lakers’ franchise. According to Sports Odds History, the Lakers have never been this big of an underdog in a conference semifinal in the NBA’s modern era. And maybe not in any era!
Game 1 — scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Tuesday — has . That’s more than just a spread, it’s an indictment.
For context, the last time saw anything close to this kind of disrespect by oddsmakers was Game 1 of the 2018 NBA Finals, when his Cavaliers opened against the . The nearly won that game in regulation, only to lose by 10 in overtime. Nevertheless, they covered.
But these odds? This is bigger. This is colder.
And if you’re wondering why the odds are so high, look no further than between the teams.
The Thunder swept the Lakers in four noncompetitive matchups this season.
A 29-point beatdown in November. A February loss to a Thunder team missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Crypto.com Arena. The April 2 loss. A 43-point disaster that saw injuries to Doncic and Reaves swallow the Lakers whole. Then a 36-point loss in a glorified scrimmage a few days later.
Average margin of defeat: 29.3 points.
That is the largest margin of defeat between any teams in a playoff matchup in NBA history.
But honestly, these odds are probably exactly where they should be.
The Thunder are younger, deeper, faster and more cohesive. They don’t just beat you, they break you. Led by SGA, who can beat you from deep, midrange and at the rim, they are one of the NBA’s best defensive teams and are constructed by talented players who all know and embrace their roles. They space the floor, they knock down 3s and they get out in transition. Their pace turns fatigue into a weapon. It overwhelms opponents. A close game can turn into a blowout in the blink of an eye.
The Thunder’s (21) and his teammates swept the regular-season series against the Lakers. NBAE via Getty Images
Against in the NBA playoffs, without its MVP candidate, it borders on cruelty.
Which brings us to Doncic. He’s the only chance the Lakers have in this series, and even that is slim. Right now, he’s on the outside looking in. He’s begun shooting and moving on the court, but still hasn’t progressed to 1-on-1 drills. He’s , but he could return at some point in the series. But by then, the series could already be decided.
Once again, the Lakers are a team looking to survive long enough to buy Doncic more time. A group leaning on the brilliance of the 41-year-old James. They just emptied the tank against the Rockets; now they’re expected to sprint uphill against the reigning champions.
The odds say this series ends quickly. It may even get ugly. But the playoffs don’t run on odds or logic. They run on unpredictability, momentum and chaos.
Nobody predicted Durant’s injury. Nobody predicted the Lakers beating the Rockets at their own game without Doncic. And nobody is predicting the Lakers even have a chance against the Thunder.
Is it likely the Lakers win the series? No.
Is it possible? Well, that’s why they play the games.
Q&A
Why are the Lakers such heavy underdogs against the Thunder?
The Lakers are +945 underdogs due to their poor performance against the Thunder in the regular season, where they were swept with an average margin of defeat of 29.3 points.
What are the betting odds for the Lakers vs. Thunder playoff series?
The Lakers open as +945 underdogs, while the Thunder are favored at -1700, indicating a significant disparity in expectations for the series.
When does the Lakers vs. Thunder playoff series start?
Game 1 of the Lakers vs. Thunder playoff series is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday.
How does the Lakers' underdog status compare to past NBA playoff series?
The Lakers' +945 underdog status is unprecedented, representing the largest odds for any team in a conference semifinal in NBA history.
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