Lakers vs. Thunder Round 2 series preview: X-Factors, matchups, prediction

Doncic's and Williams' status

Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) falls to the court during a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the third quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

These are the biggest question marks. In a playoff run plagued by injuries everywhere, the Lakers have been without Doncic and the Thunder have been without Williams. Doncic sustained a hamstring strain on Apr. 2. Ironically enough, at OKC in a regular-season blowout loss. Meanwhile, Williams sustained another hamstring strain in a Game 2 win over the Suns.

Both play important roles for their respective teams. Doncic played like an MVP candidate. He's the Lakers' best player. Meanwhile, Williams is an All-NBA talent. He was the Thunder's second-best player in their title run last year. Fair to say their impending returns completely change the dynamics of this playoff series. Just depends on when they return and what the series looks like.

Reading the tea leaves, it feels like Williams is closer to a return than Doncic. He only had a Grade 1 hamstring strain. The Thunder ruled him week-to-week. The Twitter doctors have said that this type of injury costs someone around a dozen days. By Game 1, it'll be two weeks. Meanwhile, it feels like Doncic will likely miss the start of the playoff series. Things don't sound too optimistic from what NBA insiders have said.

Gilgeous-Alexander should eat

April 7, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) reacts after scoring three point basket against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

As we saw in Round 1, Gilgeous-Alexander is moving differently. He was absolutely stellar against the Suns, which sported one of the league's best defenses. He averaged 33.8 points on 55.1% shooting and eight assists. The scoring number isn't surprising, but the gaudy efficiency is. He completely dissected Phoenix. That should continue with Los Angeles.

The Lakers had a bottom-10 defense in the regular season. Don't let what they did against the Durant-less Rockets fool you. The Thunder should destroy their defense. Specifically, Gilgeous-Alexander. Expect Marcus Smart to get the primary assignment. And while he was awesome against Houston, the reigning MVP is just at a different level.

This should be another playoff series where Gilgeous-Alexander puts up an efficient 30-plus points. At this juncture, the 27-year-old has seen every defense thrown his way. Even if the Lakers get gimmicky with doubles, he should be able to leverage his gravity to kick it out to open shooters. There's no stopping him. It'll once again be another playoff matchup where he's the best player on either side.

Slowing down LeBron

Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) drives around Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (7) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

In a Round 1 matchup, James proved to be the best player in a playoff series. Quite the feat for the 41-year-old. He averaged 23.2 points on 43.2% shooting, 8.3 assists and 7.2 rebounds. Without Doncic, he carried a bunched-together squad filled with role players. His importance will remain the same — if not higher against the Thunder as their best playmaker.

Austin Reaves helped out at the tail-end of the series. He played the last two games of their Round 1 series. But it's obvious his month-long absence from an oblique strain has built up rust. And considering OKC's three-headed perimeter-defense monster, he'll likely have a quiet series. That means all of Los Angeles' offense will depend on James once again.

Not ideal, but that's the situation. At least until Doncic returns. And even then, there's no guarantee he'll play at the MVP level before his injury. The Lakers' small chances at pulling off an upset will rely on James' ability to turn back the clock. It's not the greatest strategy, but that's the reality of the situation as he plays the Thunder for the first time in the NBA playoffs since the 2012 NBA Finals.

Holmgren-Hartenstein frontcourt

Nov 12, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren (7) dunks against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Examining both rosters, the Thunder have the clear leg-up in the frontcourt. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have been a winning formula for OKC — even with its hiccups. The Thunder relied on it to bring home a Larry O'Brien trophy last year. It'll rely on it again in their back-to-back voyage.

The next stop is against the Lakers, who had a decent playoff series against the Rockets. Deandre Ayton and Rui Hachimura were both double-digit scorers. They helped James put up a decent-enough offense to get past Houston's subpar offense. Holmgren and Hartenstein should dominate that matchup.

After a career season, Holmgren has carried that over to the NBA playoffs. He averaged 11.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in four games against the Lakers. Pretty pedestrian numbers, but remember that three of those games were blowouts. He was an efficient scorer who manned a league-best defense to completely humiliate Los Angeles. That should continue in this playoff series.

Whose role players step up?

Feb 9, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso (9) reacts after making a three point basket during the second half against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The evergreen question. Role players always help their teams get playoff wins. The adage goes that they play better at home. Both the Thunder and Lakers enjoyed some of that in their Round 1 series. It'll be interesting to see how things play out here. Comparing both rosters, feel like OKC has the leg-up there. They're simply the better and deeper team.

The Thunder saw Alex Caruso add to his playoff riser mythos. He averaged nine points and four rebounds. He shot an eye-popping 47.1% from 3 on 4.3 attempts. Lu Dort also had a solid outside shooting series. He shot 36.4% from 3 on 5.5 attempts. He also completely shut down Devin Booker. If those two can carry that over against the Lakers, then watch out. This could be a quick series.

Meanwhile, the Lakers had Luke Kennard and Smart play out of character. Kennard averaged 12.5 points. He had back-to-back 20-plus point outings to start things off against the Rockets. And then Smart averaged 14.7 points. He also had a couple of 20-plus point explosions. Los Angeles will need that same type of luck against OKC's league-best defense. But easier said than done.

X-factor: Ajay Mitchell

Nov 12, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell (25) is defended by Los Angeles Lakers forward Rui Hachimura (28) on a drive to the basket during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Welcome to your first NBA playoffs, Mitchell. Here's all of the scoring possessions you can stack on your plate. The Thunder didn't want to rely on the 23-year-old this much, but Williams' injury has forced their hand. He moved to the starting lineup for OKC's last two games against the Suns. He had an efficient 22 points in Game 4.

The Thunder will likely rely on Mitchell to do the same. Especially when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. Because of Williams' limited availability, they've found a formula to succeed without him. It's unfortunate, but that's how things break out at times. His second-year breakout has been one of OKC's biggest developmental stories this year.

If the Thunder once again slices through the Lakers' defense, Mitchell will play a big role in that. Even when Williams returns. His downhill scoring ability has translated over to the NBA playoffs. His outside jumper has been fine. And being a plus-defender has helped him stay on the floor at the biggest moments of games.

Series prediction

Apr 2, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) goes up for a basket as Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) defends during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

For the Thunder, they had to lick their chops once this became official. They've had the Lakers' number this season. They were a plus-117 points across their four regular-season wins. I know you can't make things one-for-one in the two environments, but that type of one-sided dominance is too much to ignore. Especially if Doncic misses several games in this playoff matchup.

The Thunder are just quicker and younger than the Lakers. Both rosters are completely different. OKC has mostly homegrown talent in their early 20s. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a bunch of 30-plus-year-olds who've been around the league for a minute. That's a great combo for OKC. Bad combo for Los Angeles.

It's difficult to forecast this Round 2 series. Doncic's and Williams' injury clouds any real predictions. But I feel like the Thunder are deservedly the heavy favorite. Gilgeous-Alexander is on a mission. He's on his way to back-to-back MVP awards. OKC should torch Los Angeles' defense and then force them to cough up the ball a ton. It won't be as one-sided as their Round 1 matchup, but this should be a quick series.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Lakers vs. Thunder Round 2 series preview: X-Factors, matchups, prediction