LeBron James has many options for next season, only one makes sense

He is a free agent for the first time since 2018, and as he told reporters after Game 4, “I don’t know what the future holds for me, obviously. As it stands right now tonight, I’ve got a lot of time. I’ll sit back, like I said last year after we lost to Minnesota: I’ll go back, recalibrate with my family, talk with them, and spend some time with them. When the time comes, obviously, you guys will know what I decide to do.”

Let’s break down the full menu of LeBron’s options.

Option 1: Re-sign with the Lakers

This is the path of least resistance and the one that checks the most boxes for a 41-year-old with four titles, every meaningful record in the books, and a son on the roster.

The Lakers have full Bird Rights on James, which means they can pay him more than any other team. He made $52.6 million this past season. ESPN’s Bobby Marks laid out the cap math in his offseason guide, and the upshot is that if James, Rui Hachimura, and Luke Kennard all sign for the veteran’s minimum, the Lakers could clear nearly $50 million in space to chase a real third star to put next to Doncic and Reaves.

If James wants a healthier payday, the Lakers can still operate above the cap and re-sign everyone on one-year deals, then attack the trade market with two future first-round picks (2031 and 2033) and the No. 25 pick in the 2026 draft.

The basketball case got stronger as the season went on. The Lakers went 16-2 in March once James settled into a third-option role behind Doncic and Reaves. ESPN reported in late March that team president Rob Pelinka’s preseason wish that James retire as a Laker was meant to reflect a 2026 or 2027 retirement, not just a sentimental line.

One Western Conference scout told ESPN, “To their credit, and to his credit, [LeBron is] playing the right way. He’s a basketball savant, and he’s figuring out how to fill in the gaps, and they are unstoppable right now.”

Add the off-court factors. The James family lives in Southern California. His businesses operate there. Bronny James just finished his second NBA season and has two years left on his contract. Heavy reported earlier this spring that Bronny earning real backup-guard minutes could be enough to tip LeBron toward staying.

The hangup is the contract. The reporting has been all over the place. The Athletic’s Jovan Buha and Sam Amick reported that James is “not expected to consider the kind of pay cut that was in play around this time a year ago.” ESPN’s Dave McMenamin tied the two pieces together on “NBA Today,” suggesting that if Reaves takes a discount, James might follow.

That last part is the key. Reaves is eligible for a five-year, $241 million deal in Los Angeles and has said publicly he wants to finish his career as a Laker. If Reaves takes a number, James matches the energy, and the Lakers suddenly have the flexibility to add a starting center and rotation help around the Doncic core. That is the realistic version of running it back.

Option 2: Return to the Cleveland Cavaliers

This is the romantic option, and it is the one most of the rumor cycle has fixated on. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon called Cleveland the “most likely” landing spot back in early March if James leaves Los Angeles. Nick Wright of FS1 picked the Cavaliers as his gut prediction after Game 4. Danny Green said on television, “If it ends up back in Cleveland, I think he’d be okay with that. And you have a better chance of also coming out of the East with Cleveland. The East is not as strong as the West.”

The basketball fit is real. The Cavaliers traded Darius Garland to the Los Angeles Clippers for James Harden at the deadline, signaling they have abandoned the youth movement and are pushing chips in for a final run with Donovan Mitchell, Harden, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley.

Here is the problem. The Cavaliers are operating above the second apron. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst put it bluntly on “The Hoop Collective”: “LeBron’s only going to Cleveland if he is willing to play for the minimum. Because the Cavs don’t have cap space, and they’re gonna be either in the first apron or the second apron. If you’re in either, you’re not gonna have a full mid-level exception. And the idea that you could sign-and-trade for him … if you’re in the first or second apron, you can’t receive a player in a sign-and-trade.”

There is a creative sign-and-trade scenario floating around. McMenamin and Tim Bontemps reported that Cleveland could send Allen, who is owed $90.72 million through 2028-29, to the Lakers in exchange for James. That would give Los Angeles the starting center it desperately needs and net James a bigger paycheck than a Lakers discount would. It is clever but complicated, and Windhorst’s apron warning still applies. Danny Green added, “I just don’t see a world where LeBron James takes a pay cut of what they’re going to ask of him to do.”

If L.A. is the smart play, Cleveland is the heart play. The contract math is the problem.

Option 3: Sign with the Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are not bluffing. Tim Kawakami of the San Francisco Standard reported that Golden State is targeting either Kawhi Leonard or James this summer, and the franchise just gave head coach Steve Kerr a two-year extension worth about $17.5 million annually specifically to be ready for that pursuit.

“The Warriors aren’t doing a reset,” Kawakami wrote. “They believe they can land another big-time player like Kawhi Leonard or LeBron James this offseason, which means Kerr is by far the best coach for the next few seasons.”

The fit is intriguing. James and Stephen Curry played together for Team USA at the 2024 Paris Olympics under Kerr and looked like they had been running pick-and-roll for a decade. Draymond Green is one of James’ closest friends in the league. NBA legend Gary Payton said on “Nightcap” that he expects James to “stay West” and that “if he leaves [Los Angeles], he’s going to Golden State.”

But the Warriors can only offer the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which starts at $15.1 million, or the biannual exception, which starts at $5.5 million. Newsweek and Lakers Daily both reported that James has “little interest” in finishing his career in the Bay. Stephen Curry will turn 38 in March, Jimmy Butler is rehabbing a torn ACL, and Kristaps Porzingis dealt with what Kerr called a “mysterious” illness this season. That is not the championship-or-bust roster James would need to justify uprooting his family.

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Option 4: Retirement

You cannot dismiss this. James himself said after Game 4, “There’s nothing I need to show in this league,” and The Athletic has reported that he does not want a farewell tour. He told ESPN’s Dave McMenamin earlier this spring, “Hell yeah. My wife is going to get a lot of [expletive] time because I’ve had to sacrifice not being with my wife a lot because I wanted to be the greatest player that ever played this game.”

His body has not been the same since 2021, when then-Atlanta Hawks forward Solomon Hill rolled into his leg. He missed the first 14 games of this season with sciatica. At some point, the math in a 24th season stops working.

Still, agent Rich Paul has said he hopes this is not the end. James has not committed either way.

Option 5: The wild cards

The New York Knicks, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, and a few other teams have shown up in reporting. None of them has a clear financial path to James, and none offers something the Lakers cannot match on the family front. Other franchises shouldn’t get their hopes up.

The Decision prediction: 2026 edition

James re-signs with the Lakers on a one-year or two-year deal in the $25 million to $35 million range, the Lakers keep Reaves on a long-term contract, and Pelinka uses the remaining flexibility to add a starting center. The Bronny factor, the family factor, the Doncic factor, and the cap math all point in the same direction. As one source told Marc Stein about the Warriors angle: “It has some legs.” So does the Cavaliers angle. The Lakers angle has the whole family tree.