Liverpool top-five hopes assessed ahead of crucial run-in

Liverpool top-five hopes assessed ahead of crucial run-in

Liverpool’s push for Champions League qualification is set to go down to the wire, but the underlying numbers suggest we’re in a stronger position than many might think.

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After a morale-boosting win over Fulham, attention has turned to whether Arne Slot’s side can secure a top-five finish, especially with a demanding run of fixtures still to come.

Data suggests Liverpool are well placed

Writing on his Substack, Andrew Beasley laid out the situation clearly heading into the final stretch of the season.

He explained: “Liverpool have six Premier League games left. Maybe Arne Slot does too. The outcome of these matches will have an enormous bearing on next season. There can be no cruise to the finish line as there was in 2024/25.”

The analyst also highlighted how tight the race is, adding: “The bookmakers have Liverpool as favourites to finish fifth, with Opta Analyst in agreement.”

That backing is significant, especially considering how inconsistent we’ve looked at times, but it reflects the strength of our underlying performances across the campaign.

Beasley added: “Their prediction is for the Reds to earn another nine(.19) of the 18 available points… With three of the remaining games at Anfield, you’d hope they can improve on that total.”

Tough run-in but reasons for optimism

There’s no getting away from the difficulty of the fixtures ahead, with the Reds facing multiple direct rivals in the race for Champions League qualification.

As Beasley noted: “Aside from their clash with Crystal Palace, every other fixture is with a team currently housed between third and eighth in the table… Everything is on the table.”

However, the data offers encouragement, particularly when looking at expected goals and points models, which have consistently rated us higher than our current league position suggests.

Meanwhile, Gary Neville has already suggested that Chelsea could drop out of the race entirely, saying “it feels to me now like Chelsea will miss out on Champions League football.”

That opens the door for us, but as Virgil van Dijk has stressed, nothing can be taken for granted.

The captain said: “Every game is massive… We all know how important Champions League football is for the club in general, financially as well.”

With momentum building again and rivals faltering, the opportunity is there for Liverpool to secure a top-five finish, but it will come down to how we handle these final six games.