Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder series preview, predictions: Do LeBron, Lakers have a chance?

All times are Eastern (* = if necessary).
Game 1: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City, Tuesday, May 5 (8:30 ET, NBC and Peacock)
Game 2: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City, Thursday, May 7 (9:30 ET, Prime Video)
Game 3: Oklahoma City at Los Angeles, Saturday, May 9 (8:30 ET, ABC)
Game 4: Oklahoma City at Los Angeles, May 11, (10:30 ET, Prime Video)
*Game 5: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City, May 13 (TBD)
*Game 6: Oklahoma City at Los Angeles, May 15, (TBD)
*Game 7: Los Angeles at Oklahoma City, May 17 (TBD)

Player to watch: LeBron James

We should be watching and savoring every chance we get to watch maybe the greatest ever to do it, because we don't know how many more of these chances we're going to get from the 41-year-old.

With Doncic out, LeBron took on the load of being the primary shot creator for the Lakers against Houston. Through the first four games against the Rockets, he impressed, as he did in Game 6. LeBron averaged 26 points, 9 rebounds and 8.5 assists while shooting 42.9% on 3-pointers in the Lakers' four wins.

However, there were stretches — in Games 4 and 5 in particular — where he started to look like he was wearing down. That's where the return of Austin Reaves helped — he is another key for Los Angeles. The Lakers need Reaves to look like the All-Star he was early in the season.

How will LeBron hold up against physical defenders like Lu Dort in a series where the games are every other night? Can he play well enough to keep the Lakers in the series until Luka Doncic potentially returns? The Lakers are going to ask a lot of LeBron, but even at 41, he answers the call most of the time.

Keys to watch for in Lakers vs. Thunder

If/When does Luka Doncic return? Or Jalen Williams?

Behind some MVP-ballot level play from Luka Doncic this season, the Lakers had a top-10 offense in the league. Los Angeles' roster, while still in flux, was built with maximizing his skills in mind.

That said, Doncic didn't exactly thrive against the Thunder this season, averaging 15.5 points a game on 33.3% shooting (14.3% from 3) in the two games he played against them, with Dort as his primary defender. Still, Doncic is one of the five best offensive players in the league, he has a history of coming up big in the playoffs, and if the Lakers are going to have a chance in this series, they need him.

Which is why the report from ESPN's Shams Charania on Sunday that Doncic is not close to returning is not good. Officially, Doncic is week-to-week. "He's doing more on the court, but still not doing full-contact workouts," Charania said. That's not a great, and if he's out for the first three or four games of this series — as it appears he will be, at the very least — the Lakers may be in too big a hole to climb out of even if he does return.

The Thunder played much of the season without Jalen Williams and kept winning, but they could use his defense (traditionally, he has gotten the LeBron assignment) and secondary ballhandling against a Lakers defense that likes to press (and may have to blitz a lot in this series). Williams is week-to-week as well, and the only update we got came from Thunder coach Mark Daigneault. "He's chipping away at his rehab. He's doing a good job," Daigneault said. That said, Williams should be close.

Can the Lakers hit enough 3-pointers?

For the season, the Lakers didn't take many 3s — bottom 10 in the league — but when they did, they made a respectable 35.9% of them (14th in the league). If Los Angeles is going to keep pace with Oklahoma City's scoring this series, it needs a lot more attempts and more 3-pointers to fall.

With Chet Holmgren as the anchor, in the games against the Lakers this season the Thunder crowded the paint on defense and dared them to shoot over the top. The chances were there, but during the four meetings this season the Lakers shot 30.3% against OKC. The return of Reaves to the rotation should help, as will Luke Kennard playing well, but the Lakers need guys like Rui Hachimura and Marcus Smart (from the corner, ideally) to launch and make 3s, too.

Can the Lakers’ defense hold up?

The Lakers played much-improved defense as the season wore on, but stopping Oklahoma City is on an entirely different level. There's Gilgeous-Alexander, who will get downhill and either finish or draw a foul. There is Holmgren, who is 7-foot, can post up, face up, hit 3s or finish lobs at the rim. There are shooters all over the court at all times. It's a big ask for the Lakers, but they need to play their best defense, put pressure on SGA and the Thunder ball handlers like Ajay Mitchell, force some turnovers and just slow the Thunder down.

Part of slowing OKC down: The Lakers have to take care of the ball. They were inconsistent against the Rockets, and Houston picked up some easy transition buckets (but missed plenty, too). The Thunder are more of the same, but when they get the ball out in transition, they finish. The Lakers can't afford to give up all those easy points.

Prediction: Thunder in five

I was at a couple of those matchups between these teams this year, and the talent gap is too great for the Lakers to make up. The return of Luka means the Lakers might be able to push this to six games, but the Thunder are moving on.