Lottery remains possible for play-in Heat . . . currently with 1% chance at No. 1

Q: What are the Miami Heat's chances of making the playoffs?

The Miami Heat currently have a chance to make the playoffs if they win their upcoming game against the Charlotte Hornets.

Q: What happens if the Miami Heat lose their next games?

If the Miami Heat lose either of their next games, they will enter the lottery for the first time since 2019.

Q: Who do the Miami Heat play after the Charlotte Hornets?

After playing the Charlotte Hornets, the Miami Heat will face the loser of the game between the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers.

Q: When was the last time the Miami Heat entered the lottery?

The last time the Miami Heat entered the lottery was in 2019 when they selected Tyler Herro at No. 13.

CHARLOTTE — Even with a singular goal of getting a victory Tuesday night at Spectrum Center against the Charlotte Hornets to extend their season, dual realities remain for the Miami Heat.

In that regard, a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA play-in round changes nothing in the short term for Erik Spoelstra’s team.

It still can be playoffs . . . or lottery.

Win Tuesday against the Hornets and then Friday on the road against the loser of Wednesday night’s game between the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers, and it’s off to the playoffs for a franchise-record seventh consecutive season.

Lose either game and it’s into the lottery for the first time since Tyler Herro was selected at No. 13 in 2019.

As it is, the lottery will remain in flux through the end of this week, with the play-in round impacting those odds and determining the last of the lottery participants.

For now, the Heat stand as the No. 13 seed of the fourteen lottery seeds, meaning a 1% chance of landing the top pick and a 4.8% chance of landing one of the first four picks.

Only the top four picks in the June draft are determined by the random-but-weighted drawing, with the remaining picks in the first round determined by inverse order of finish.

However, the lottery only includes the teams that fail to advance to the best-of-seven first-round of the playoffs, meaning lottery position will remain fluid through Friday’s close of the play-in tournament.

At 43-39, the Heat finished with the NBA’s 14th-worst record, even with their six-game improvement from last season’s 37-45.

With each team in the Eastern Conference portion of the play-in round with a better record — therefore the Heat’s No. 10 seed entering the play-in round – the Heat are assured of at least a No. 13 starting point in the lottery — if they fail to make the playoffs.

They could, however, move up to the No. 12 spot in the lottery if the 42-40 Los Angeles Clippers advance to the playoffs out of the lottery and the Phoenix Suns, who closed at 45-37, fail to make the playoffs out of the Western Conference play-in.

As a No. 12 lottery seed, the Heat would have a 1.5% chance of exiting the lottery with the No. 1 overall pick and a 7.1% chance of one of the first four selections.

In any lottery scenario, the Heat only would be able to either move into one of the first four selections, or fall to the back end of the lottery order at Nos. 12, 13 or 14.

Should the Heat advance to the playoffs, opening in the first round against the East No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons starting Sunday, they would be moved outside of the lottery order, to pick at No. 16 or No. 17, depending on other play-in results.

The Heat most recently have drafted at No. 20 last year (Kasparas Jakucionis), No. 15 in 2024 (Kel’el Ware), No. 18 in 2023 (Jaime Jaquez Jr), No. 27 in 2022 (Nikola Jovic) and No. 20 in 2020 (Precious Achiuwa), without a first-round pick in 2021.

The Heat’s most recent lottery appearances have yielded Herro at No. 13 in 2019. Bam Adebayo at No. 14 in 2017 and Justise Winslow at No. 10 in 2015.

The Heat have never moved up in the draft process through the lottery, with their highest pick being Michael Beasley at No. 2 in 2008, a year they were the top seed in the lottery.

The NBA featured a record race to the bottom this season, a record eight teams finishing with a win percentage of .333 or worse, each with at least 56 losses over the 82-game season.

This year’s lottery is viewed as one of the most talented in years, featuring BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, Kansas wing Darryn Peterson, Duke big man Cameron Boozer, North Carolina big man Caleb Wilson, Illinois wing Keaton Wagner, Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. and Houston guard Kingston Flemings.

Second round

While their own second-round pick previously was dealt (at No. 44, now belonging to the San Antonio Spurs), the Heat will receive the No. 41 pick of the Golden State Warriors as part of the settlement with the Hornets over the Terry Rozier trade. That pick was forwarded by the NBA to settle the dispute of the Heat not being informed of Rozier being under gambling investigation at the time of that trade.