Louie Rabaut's Kentucky Derby 152 preview after three preps

Potente wins on debut.  Photo credit: Santa Anita Park.

GRADE 3 JEFF RUBY STEAKS.  TURFWAY PARK, MARCH 21.

REPLAY: Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Derby Contenders: Fulleffort & Stark Contrast.

The Ruby has become a sneaky important race on the Derby trail, with the 2011 Derby winner in Animal Kingdom, and 2022 longshot winner Rich Strike.  Others have exited the race to 3-year-old successes, including Seize The Grey, who in 2024 finished 3rd in the Ruby before winning the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on Derby day, then the Grade 1 Preakness two weeks later.  He went on to win the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby that fall.

Fulleffortwas an impressive winner of this year’s Ruby, working out a trip after being stuck on the rail to pull away from the field in the late stages of the stretch run.  That race itself should land him within the top 8 or so contenders, and wouldn’t be a crazy longshot play should players want to include him in wagers.  Between Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox and jockey Tyler Gaffalione he’ll have good, experienced group behind him.

But make no mistake - Fulleffort is a gamble, as he’s never raced on dirt.  A legitimate case can be made, however, that being in Cox’s barn at Churchill Downs 6 weeks ahead of the Derby should offer ample opportunity to learn the course.  I buy this argument, and will likely be throwing Fulleffort in my tickets for value.

Stark Contrast is a mega-talented son of Caravaggio, but like Fulleffort has never run on dirt.  I think he’s right at 50/50 to run in the Derby; if he doesn’t, expect to see him in the Grade 1 American Turf - where he should be amongst the favorites.  His race in the Ruby was less eye-popping, but solid nonetheless.  He wouldn’t be interesting to me if his connections decide on the Derby - but I’d almost certainly have him on top in the American Turf.  The owners, the Amerman Family, sent Ruby winner Endlessly to the Derby - and he was never the same afterward.  While trainer Michael McCarthy - trainer of star Journalism - can implore them to stay on the grass, the Derby is a tough race to ignore.

Stark Contrast wins in the Zuma Beach.  Photo Credit: Santa Anita Park.

GRADE 1 BLUE GRASS STAKES.  KEENELAND, APRIL 4.

REPLAY: Blue Grass Stakes

Derby Contenders: Further Ado & Ottinho.

Only one horse since the turn of the century has even run in the Blue Grass and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby - and that was all the way back in 2007, when Street Sense beat them all to the line on the first Saturday in May.  Recently, however, many horses from the Blue Grass have hit the board in the Derby, with 13 such runners since 2000.

Further Ado will try to break that winless streak, and given his romp in the Blue Grass, he might just do it.  One of the knocks on horses exiting the Blue Grass is how different the dirt courses at Keeneland and Churchill tend to play; there are few guarantees horses will take to both courses.  Further Ado checks a further box: he won November’s Kentucky Jockey Club, run over two turns on the dirt at Churchill Downs.  His speed figures have climbed steadily since that race, and he’ll be third up in the form cycle for the Derby.  While a 100 point prep winner hasn’t won the Derby since Justify in 2018 - he’s an obvious contender, and one would be foolish to dismiss his chances.  The addition of jockey Johnny Velazquez is a major positive, as he’s as good a big race rider as there is in the sport - and he’s on a tear in 2026.

Ottinhodid all of his best running late, picking up the scattered pieces 11 full lengths behind Further Ado.  Trainer Chad Brown was set to have race favorite Paladin as his Blue Grass runner - like he did a few years ago with Sierra Leone - but an injury has placed Paladin on the injured list for a spell.  Enter Ottinho, who had done all his career running at Aqueduct, where he was a likely contender to finish in the top two in the Wood Memorial, and qualify for the Derby that way.  He’s not an interesting runner to me; being best of the rest in the Blue Grass does little to get the juices going.

Further Ado kicks away in the Blue Grass.  Photo Credit: Keeneland Race Course.

RANKING THE HORSES FROM THE SAN FELIPE, RUBY, AND BLUE GRASS

CONTENDER            LOUIE'S FAIR ODDS IN DERBY 152

1.  Further Ado              6/1

2.  Full Effort                 12/1

3. Potente                     15/1

4. So Happy                  20/1

5. Stark Contrast           50/1

6. Ottinho                      99/1