Lucas Giolito reportedly agrees to one-year deal with Padres after sitting out start of 2026 MLB season

Giolito was equally as effective during the COVID-19 shortened season in 2020, tossing a no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates that August. He turned in another strong year in 2021, posting a 3.53 ERA over 178 2/3 innings. From 2019 to 2021, Giolito accumulated 11.3 fWAR, which tied him for seventh among pitchers.

Things started to bottom out for Giolito the following season, when he posted a 4.90 ERA over 161 2/3 innings. His peripherals suggested he should have performed better, and he showed improvement early in 2023. In 21 starts with the White Sox that season, Giolito had a 3.79 ERA.

But a trade to the Los Angeles Angels proved to be disastrous. Giolito put up a 6.89 ERA in six games with the team before being placed on waivers. He was picked up by the Cleveland Guardians, where he posted a 7.04 ERA in six starts.

The Red Sox still believed in Giolito that offseason, signing the starter to a one-year deal with a player option. Giolito, however, did not pitch in 2024. He experienced elbow pain before the start of the regular season and underwent season-ending elbow surgery.

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With expectations low, Giolito returned in 2025 and pitched better than expected. Things started out rough, as Giolito returned in late April and posted a 6.42 ERA over his first seven starts with the Red Sox.

But he got back on track from there, putting up a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 games. The advanced stats didn't support Giolito's success, though. He managed to post an elite ERA despite a declining strike-out rate, an increasing walk rate and a 1.35 WHIP in the second half.

That put Giolito in an interesting spot during the offseason. He was firmly part of the second or third tier of starters, which included players like Michael King and Merrill Kelly. All three were players who had experienced success in the majors, but were coming off either a poor season or an injury. Despite that, however, Giolito sat on the market until well after the start of the 2026 MLB season.

The Padres are willing to bet Giolito still has some ability left in the tank following a strong second half in the 2025 season. While there are warning signs that suggest Giolito isn't about to morph all the way back to form, he's a battle-tested pitcher who has bounced back multiple times after being counted out.

This story will be updated.