'Lucky' Villa must fight against 'diminishing' returns

[BBC]

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'Must-win' is a phrase that gets thrown around so flippantly in football it's almost lost all meaning. But Aston Villa's Europa League semi-final second leg against Nottingham Forest at Villa Park might genuinely be the epitome of one, and the stakes extend well beyond ending a three-decade major trophy drought.

Last season, Champions League football carried a novelty value that swept the club along. Next season, with the North Stand redevelopment reducing Villa Park to a 33,000 capacity, it'll potentially be a less spectacular affair. Likely qualification is looking more critical for the balance sheet than as a platform for this team to impress. Five wins in their 16 league games in 2026 tells its own story.

The impact hasn't been felt yet. Villa have two fewer points than they did at this point last season, yet they sit two places higher than they were then.

Their drop-off this year hasn't cost them as dearly as it could have, cushioned by the poor form of others and the extra coefficient place. Yes, there have been mitigating circumstances like key injuries, but they are lucky to still be where they are.

Unai Emery has built something transformative, but this squad - per minutes played this season - is the second oldest in the league, the recruitment hasn't kept pace, and diminishing returns are already showing.

The Europa League in the trophy cabinet would address that, define Emery's era on his own terms and buy time and legitimacy for the rebuild that needs to come.