The NBA is proposing significant changes to its lottery rules, including flattening odds and limiting top-five picks for teams. These changes could have dramatically altered past drafts, impacting teams like the Spurs, Rockets, and Lakers.
Key points
NBA proposes significant changes to lottery rules
Flattening odds and penalizing bottom teams
Preventing top-five picks for three consecutive years
Impact on teams like Spurs, Rockets, and Lakers
Potential shifts in draft history since 2016
San Antonio SpursHouston RocketsDetroit PistonsPhoenix Suns
The NBA is set to change its lottery rules again, and the proposed tweaks are dramatic in scope. The lottery odds are flattening, the worst three teams in the league are being punished with lower odds, and tanking is becoming massively disincentivized.
One of the biggest changes is a rule that would prevent teams from selecting in the top five over three consecutive years.Ā If that had been in place a decade ago, then some of the greatest picks over that timespan would be completely shifted. The Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Suns, Lakers, Sixers, and Magic would all have had at least one of their draft picks bumped out of the top five.
Q&A
What are the proposed changes to the NBA lottery rules?
The proposed changes include flattening lottery odds, penalizing the worst three teams with lower odds, and preventing teams from selecting in the top five for three consecutive years.
How would the new lottery rules have affected past NBA drafts?
If the new rules had been in place, several teams, including the Spurs and Lakers, would have had their draft picks significantly altered, potentially changing the landscape of the league.
Which teams are most impacted by the proposed lottery changes?
Teams like the Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Suns, Lakers, Sixers, and Magic would have seen at least one of their draft picks bumped out of the top five under the new rules.
Why is the NBA changing its lottery rules now?
The changes aim to disincentivize tanking and create a more competitive balance in the league by altering the odds for the worst-performing teams.
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The what-if game is always tough to play, but it's interesting to see how that specific rule would have changed the course of some of the biggest drafts since 2016. Here are the seismic shifts that would alter the current landscape of the league.
Doncic was a polarizing prospect back in the 2018 draft. Many scouts had him as an easy No. 1, while others thought Marvin Bagley or DeAndre Ayton should be the top pick.
The Suns and Kings were part of that latter group. They took Ayton and Bagley 1 and 2. Doncic fell to Atlanta at No. 3. The Hawks didn't seem all that infatuated with him either, trading him for Trae Young and a protected future first on draft night.
The Suns would be prevented from making that Ayton blunder under the new rules due to taking Josh Jackson and Dragan Bender top five in previous drafts.
The Kings would be owners of the new No. 1 pick and probably would have taken Ayton or Bagley. The Hawks were low on Doncic, so it's conceivable that they would pass on him too at No. 2.
There is no way that Doncic would have dropped below 3, as I confirmed with one lead executive who was working for the Grizzlies at the time. Memphis got an eventual Defensive Player of the Year and two-time All-Star in Jaren Jackson Jr. He was below Doncic on their board.
Building around Doncic would have obviously completely changed the Grizzlies' franchise. In real life, they were bad enough to take Ja Morant the following draft at No. 2 overall. In our fantasy version, a rookie Doncic would likely have dragged them to the middle of the lottery, as he did for the Mavericks. By year six, he had Dallas in the Finals.
Doncic could have done the same in Memphis. Given the Grizzlies' shrewd drafting over the next several years, he might have had an even better team around him and a ring or two by now.
The Process was well underway for the tanking Sixers by 2016. They had taken Joel Embiid third in 2014 and Jahlil Okafor third in 2015. In real life, they won the lottery in 2016, selecting consensus No. 1 pick Ben Simmons.
In our thought experiment, the Sixers would have fallen out of that top 5, potentially getting a player like Buddy Hield (No. 6), Jamal Murray (No. 7), or Marquese Chriss (No. 8) instead.
Simmons was the best player in his class, and there was very little debate about it. He would have gone to the Lakers, who would get the new No. 1 pick.
The Celtics' fortunes would have completely changed too. Nobody would have faulted them for picking Brandon Ingram at No. 2, who almost every scout had over Jaylen Brown. The knock on Brown was that his jump shot was shaky, and he was being mocked in the seven or eight range to the Nuggets or Kings. Jamal Murray turned into a good pick for Denver. Brown might have been better.
Would Simmons' career turn out any differently in Los Angeles? The Young Socialite didn't handle media scrutiny particularly well, and it would have been intensified with the Lakers. It would be fascinating though to see him play next to LeBron James, who joined the team two seasons later. And as for the Celtics, they probably wouldn't have won their title with Ingram in place of Brown.
The 2023 draft would have been a real doozy. Both the Rockets at No. 4 and the Pistons at No. 5 would have their picks drop out of the top five. The Magic would also be blocked from moving into the top five range.
That means the Pacers, who took Bilal Coulibaly at 7 and later traded him for No. 8 pick Jarace Walker, would get a perfect player in Amen Thompson at No. 4 to pair alongside Tyrese Haliburton. Thompson is a natural fit in the Carlisle system, thriving in transition and playing tough-nosed defense. He and Haliburton would cover each other's shooting and defensive weaknesses nicely.
The Pacers did alright without Thompson, making the Finals in 2025. Walker wasn't a part of their playoff rotation. Would having an All-Defensive First Team guard to put on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander be enough to get them over the edge? They got about as close as possible, leading Game 7 of the Finals at halftime before losing without Haliburton. Maybe they hold onto that lead with Thompson taking over in his place.
Edgecombe finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and is already good enough to be an important playoff contributor. Would the Sixers have picked him over Dylan Harper?
Harper was the consensus No. 2 pick behind Cooper Flagg in the 2025 draft. The Spurs wouldn't have been able to take him though, due to getting Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama over the previous two seasons.
That means the Sixers would have moved up to No. 2 and probably taken a great rookie in Harper. The Hornets were high on Kon Knueppel and likely would have taken him at 3. The Jazz would be the big winners, upgrading from a mediocre rookie season from Ace Bailey and getting Edgecombe instead at No. 4.
The Jazz are already positioned for a big jump next season. In our what-if scenario, they would have an even better core featuring breakout star Keyonte George, Edgecombe, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and whoever they take with a good pick in 2026. The spacing for Edgecombe could make him even better than he was in Philadelphia.
As for the Spurs, Harper has been an important player for them. They have good guard depth though, with veteran De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle approaching All-Star status. They'd still be on track with Victor Wembanyama and another scorer like Ace Bailey or Tre Johnson, but their future wouldn't be quite as bright.
