Game 1 between the Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons is expected to be a slower, more physical matchup, impacting player prop projections. Bettors can find value in specific player props due to tighter rotations and fewer scoring chances.
Key points
Game 1 features Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons
Matchup expected to be slower and more physical
Fewer scoring chances affect player prop projections
Tighter rotations make certain props more predictable
This is a matchup fade. Franz Wagner relies on rhythm and driving lanes, and those are harder to come by in a playoff opener against a physical defense. If heās forced into more contested halfcourt looks, the efficiency drops, and so does the path to 18+.
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Wendell Carter Jr. Over 0.5 threes (-110)
Projection: 0.92 threes
You only need one, and the role supports it. Wendell Carter Jr. spaces the floor in this offense, especially when defenses collapse on Banchero. If heās playing starter minutes, heās getting multiple clean looks from deep. This is more about opportunity than volume.
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Paolo Banchero Under 22.5 points (+100)
Projection: 21.88 points
This is where playoff basketball tightens up. Paolo Banchero will get his touches, but the Pistons can load up defensively and make him work through contact on every possession. Unless heās living at the line, this number is a bit inflated for a Game 1 environment.
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Pistons Game 1 computer picks
Jalen Duren Under 20.5 points (-110)
Projection: 16.90 points
This line is mispriced for his role. Jalen Duren isnāt a primary scorer. He feeds off lobs, putbacks, and easy looks. In a slower game with fewer transition chances, those opportunities shrink. Asking him to clear 20 requires an outlier performance.
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Low line, steady role. Isaiah Stewart doesnāt need volume to clear this, just minutes and a couple of made shots. In a physical matchup, heās going to be involved, whether itās second-chance points or spot-up looks. This is one of the cleaner numbers on the board.
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Cade Cunningham Under 27.5 points (-112)
Projection:24.99 points
This is a ceiling fade. Cade Cunningham will have the ball, but playoff defenses are built to force it out of his hands late in possessions. If the Magic send help and make others beat them, his scoring becomes more volatile. Youāre betting on resistance, not lack of usage.
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