Mailbag: Is Carlos Ulberg going to have to give up the UFC light heavyweight title?

So, let me stare into my crystal ball and tell you what’s going to happen. Not what should happen, but what will.

Next month, Khamzat Chimaev defends his middleweight title against Sean Strickland. He is going to win that fight, and then promptly vacate his belt to move up and fight for the light heavyweight title.

At UFC White House, Alex Pereira fights Ciryl Gane for the heavyweight belt. If Pereira loses, he will return to 205 and fight Chimaev for the vacant title — they will make Ulberg give it up. If Pereira wins, Chimaev will instead fight Paulo Costa for the interim light heavyweight title. Those two have beef, and while it might be absurd for Costa to get a title shot off one win, an interim belt makes it feel more palatable.

This feels like the future that awaits us, with Ulberg returning next year to take on Chimaev for the title.

Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis

What are the odds that Lewis vs. Hokit goes from “somebody is going to sleep in the first minute” to “boring snoozefest” like Francis vs. Lewis did? Does it matter that the fight is at the White House where nobody wants to disappoint?

I’d say it’s pretty low. There’s a reason the UFC spun this fight up on the spot, and it’s because they know it won’t be trash.

Don’t get me wrong, Derrick Lewis is well beyond his best years at this point, but that actually makes this fight even less likely to be boring. Lewis basically only has his power left, and he knows it. So, he’s going to throw haymakers until he fails. Meanwhile, Hokit is very young in his career, but he’s proven to be a guy who is all gas, no brakes. He’s going to come crashing in and push a high pace, maybe shoot the bird a few times, and scrap. Those two styles mean this can’t really end up that bad.

Plus, it’s vaguely intriguing! Yes, Lewis is washed, and Hokit should be able to score takedowns and beat him up with ease. BUT, Curtis Blaydes has Hokit stumbling all around the cage, and he’s not exactly a power puncher. If Lewis can defend one takedown, this gets real messy real fast for Hokit, and that’s fun for everyone.

Heavyweight

Does Hokit’s memorable arrival on the heavyweight scene spells trouble for Aspinall? He has started to fade from the collective mind, has made a few comments and management decisions that must have irked the UFC brass and now there is a contender that is stealing the spotlight. If Hokit wins at the White House, wouldn’t Aspinall finds himself in a corner with no room to negotiate with the UFC?

Not remotely. The rise of Hokit is only good for Tom Aspinall, because the biggest problem for every heavyweight right now is the lack of depth in the division.

Heavyweight is the worst division in MMA right now, give or take women’s bantamweight. It’s just horrific, which is how a guy like Hokit, with limited experience, can come in and launch himself into the top 10 in a matter of months. So, the rise of new talent in the division is, broadly, a great thing for the weight class.

It’s also good for Aspinall specifically, because, for as fun as Hokit has been in the cage, I’m still not sold on him as a fight. Not to say he’s bad, but Hokit spent 15 minutes striking with Curtis Blaydes and only barely won that fight. A guy like Aspinall might launch him into orbit. And the best thing you can have as a professional fighter is an opponent you will easily beat, but who will draw a lot of interest. Hokit is right in the sweet spot of that Venn diagram for Aspinall.

Hall of Fame

I think it’s safe to say that the Hokit/Blaydes brawl will eventually be inducted into the Hall of Fame, and rightly so. It’s just odd to think of Hokit as having any place near any Hall of Fame. Who is the person/group you think is the most odd fit into a Hall of Fame (doesn’t have to be a sports HoF for this question)?

This question allows me to get on my soapbox about something that nobody talks about, but I consider to be very, very stupid about the Hall of Fame: Why is it the way it is?

As things currently stand, the UFC inducts several fighters a year, one “contributor,” and one fight. That’s dumb. We get several hundred new fights a year from the promotion, with a new Fight of the Year each year, which means at this pace, the UFC will literally never keep up. Put more f*cking fights in!

If Hokit-Blaydes goes into the UFC Hall of Fame one day, I won’t be shocked, but the way things are currently, putting that fight in over at least 20 other fights that are still waiting would be a travesty. Not to mention the numerous fights that should be enshrined, not because the fight was an all-timer, but maybe the finish was!

We do KO and Sub of the Year, so why isn’t the UFC inducting those in as well? And do more than one fight a year. It’s not like there’s an actual Hall of Fame building that’s running out of space. Celebrate your history, damnit!

Oh, and the most obvious answer to the actual question for me is even combat sports-related: Abraham Lincoln being in the National Wrestling Hall of Fame is hilarious. We all love Lincoln, truly one of the greatest Americans who has ever lived, and by all accounts, he was a good wrestler, but it’s just absurd that he’s in the National Wrestling Hall of Fame because he, like, functionally was a county champ or whatever.

Paulo Costa the light heavyweight

Can Costa continue to do well at light heavyweight? Can he beat or overtake Magomed Ankalaev? Who outside of Ulberg beats him there?

First off, full credit to Costa. He looked good in his first real fight up at 205, and even battled back from adversity to stop an undefeated guy. Considering where he was 12 months ago, that’s darn good. And considering that light heavyweight isn’t much better than heavyweight as a weight class, I won’t say he can’t succeed up there. But I’m skeptical.

Even at middleweight, Costa has never carried enormous power, winning more with pressure and volume. And while those attributes can carry up well to 205, at some point, that lack of game-changing power becomes a liability.

Looking up the rankings, I assume that Khalil Rountree Jr., Ankalaev, Prochazka, and Ulberg would demolish him. Jamahal Hill probably beats him, and Jan Blachowicz does too, though the former champion is super old now. Plus, Robert Whittaker is coming up.

But just because Costa might lose to all of these people doesn’t mean he can’t overtake them, because as I mentioned at the top, I think Costa has a real shot at fighting for a belt next.

Jon Jones

Jon Jones seems to be struggling with leaving life as a fighter behind. He may genuinely be getting the itch to do it again, and feel like he could beat whoever, or he just doesn’t want to say goodbye.

Let’s look at the two scenarios in play here Jed, what would a comeback look like as far as opponent and performance, and if he is actually done, what does that means for the sport and for Jones ?

At this point, I genuinely have no idea.

For a long time, I assumed Jon Jones had retired because it was obvious that he was never going to fight Tom Aspinall, and that was the only fight the UFC was willing to make. Then all the Aspinall eye-stuff happened, and I thought Jones might get the fight he wanted, Alex Pereira. But because he handled everything in the worst way possible, the UFC seems to be uninterested in doing Jones any favors, leaving him in a strange spot.

The most likely answer, I believe, is that Jones never fights again. Sure, he’ll talk about it, and act as he might, but that’s just Jones being a narcissist and wanting all the attention. Because at this point, it seems pretty clear that Jones wants X amount of dollars to fight again, and the UFC is not going to pay him that. Neither is going to budge, so nothing will happen, barring dire financial straits for Jones, which we wish on nobody.

And, if he really is done, then it’s the same as it was last summer: Jon Jones is one of the greatest fighters of all time, and depending on what you value, the greatest. His accomplishments are such that you cannot have a serious GOAT conversation without mentioning him, which is about the best you can ask for. And while his myriad issues outside the cage (and inside the cage) were at best problematic and at worst horrifying, you cannot tell the story of MMA without including him. Sure, the last several years of his career have been a nonsense vanity project, but that doesn’t invalidate the good years, and the peak of Jones is as good as anyone ever.

But let’s say I’m wrong. Maybe something changes, and Jones decides he will take less money to come back and fight. There are very few fights out there that make any sense for the UFC to put together. Because the problem with Jones, if you’re the UFC, is that you don’t want him to win now.

If Jones came back and fought for the heavyweight belt and won, he’d just leave again. That’s no good for the company. Now you’re gambling on maybe the best fighter ever to lose? That’s not a great gamble! So, any return fight would need to be for something other than the belt, against an opponent who won’t be completely offset if they lose, but could still do business for the UFC should they win. Frankly, there aren’t a lot of names that thread that needle. I’ve come up with two, and one of them is stupid.

The first is Alex Pereira. If Pereira loses to Ciryl Gane, he’s in a bit of a no-man’s land. Does Poatan really want to return to 205? Can he even? And it’s not like he’s a young man. He loses to Gane, Pereira can fight Jones, it’s a massive fight for the UFC, and the promotion loses nothing from it. Win-win.

The other is a crazy idea, but it’s the only other one I’ve got: Israel Adesanya.

Yes, Adesanya is washed, and yes, Jones out-weighs him by 50 pounds, and yes, it would be uncompetitive. But why does the UFC care about that? Once upon a time, Izzy and Jon beefed to no avail. Maybe the UFC could send Izzy out of MMA with one last big fight, and Jon could get the walkover win he’s been gunning for over the past two years.

Thanks for reading, and thank you to everyone who sent in questions. Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send them to me. Every Sunday (sometimes I forget and it happens on Monday), I’ll put out a call for questions on The Feed. Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane; just drop your questions in there and let’s have fun.