Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction, odds, expert picks for crucial Premier League showdown Sunday

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Manchester City host Arsenal on Sunday in the most critical match of the English Premier League. The Gunners (21-7-4) sit at the top of the Premier League table, six points ahead of second-place Man City (19-7-5), who have a game in hand. Arsenal have just one victory in their past five in all competitions, a run that includes a 2-0 loss to City in the League Cup final on March 22. Man City have just two losses and one draw in their past 16 matches, with both losses coming to Real Madrid in the Champions League.

Kickoff from Etihad Stadium is set for 11:30 a.m. ET. Manchester City are -110 home favorites (wager $110 to win $100) in the latest Man City vs. Arsenal odds at DraftKings Sportsbook while the Gunners are +310 underdogs (wager $100 to win $310). A draw is priced at +255 and the match total is set at 2.5 goals (Over -105, Under -125). Before you place your bets on Manchester City vs. Arsenal, you need to see the latest projections from the SportsLine Projection Model and what SportsLine soccer expert Jon Eimer is wagering for the contest.

Eimer finished 2023 as SportsLine's No. 1 soccer expert, posting a 248-234-12 record (+25.93 units) on SportsLine article picks. Eimer has been red-hot in 2025, posting a profit in multiple leagues, including the Premier League, Champions League, La Liga and more. Anyone following his soccer betting picks could have seen huge returns at sportsbooks and on betting apps.

Here are Eimer's best bets and analysis for Man City vs. Arsenal on Sunday, April 19.

Manchester City vs. Arsenal best bets

• Man City ML (-118 BetMGM, 1 unit)
• Man City over 1.5 Team Total (-110 BetMGM, 1 unit)

The most important match of the season

You hear the phrase "must-win match" all the time in sports when it really isn't. But this is one of those examples of a match that really could be the difference between winning or losing the league this season.

Arsenal are top of the table, six points ahead of Manchester City, but have an extra game played. So while Arsenal is six points up, they're essentially only three up knowing that City most likely will win their game in hand. This means that if City win, they will have closed this gap in a matter of weeks.

Arsenal desperately, desperately, DESPERATELY, need to avoid losing this game. A draw wouldn't be a bad result for Arsenal on the road, and a win would be season-defining. Expect Manchester City to press for everything they can knowing that if they win, there's a good chance they win the league again, and a loss or draw might be the end for Pep Guardiola's season.

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Arsenal fatigue and injuries

The timing of this critical match is brutal for Arsenal. Manchester City are already out of the Champions League, so they were able to rest this weekend and prepare for this match.

Arsenal, on the other hand, had to play a brutal and physical 90 minutes against Sporting in the second leg of a Champions League quarterfinal. The team looked spent at the final whistle, and while they got the result they wanted, that's a heavy toll to take.

On top of being tired, there are some big names missing from the visitor's roster. Mikel Merino, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Riccardo Calafiori, and Jurrien Timber are all expected to miss this match. You might not know all those names, but know that it's a massive blow.

As much as I would love to see Arsenal pick up the win here, I don't see it happening. Recent form mixed with fitness levels mixed with the end of the season boost we're seeing out of Manchester City has me backing the Citizens.

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