Mets visit Rockies for three as weather looks dicey

With the Giants having plummeted to last spot in Major League Baseball in runs per game, the Mets rank 29th with 3.47 runs scored per game. Even in winning their series against the Angels over the weekend, they only have averaged 4.00 runs per game. League average so far this season is 4.50 runs per game, which means there’s still a lot of work to do. The fact that Vidal Bruján’s career numbers at the plate (.543 OPS, 54 wRC+) wouldn’t look too out of place in the Mets’ lineup if he were to be included in it is still pretty damning.

The Mets haven’t been spectacular in terms of run prevention, either, but they’ve been much better at it than they’ve been at scoring. At 4.38 runs allowed per game, the team has the 14th-lowest mark in baseball, one that obviously makes them slightly better than the aforementioned league average.

The Rockies, meanwhile, have allowed 4.91 runs per game the seventh-highest rate in the sport. Their home ballpark always plays a role in that, of course, but the their struggling pitchers didn’t have much of a problem shutting down the Mets’ lineup in their recent series in Queens. The Mets managed just four runs total across that three-game series as Colorado swept them.

Rockies hitters have scored 4.29 runs per game, which isn’t all that impressive but is still quite a bit better than their counterparts in the Mets’ lineup. Among those with at least 50 plate appearances, Mickey Moniak is by far their best hitter this season, as he’s hit .327/.374/.724 with 11 home runs and a 185 wRC+.

Four other Rockies are hitting above league average by wRC+: Troy Johnston (124), Hunter Goodman (114), Edouard Julien (110), and Tyler Freeman (103). And two hitters are just below league average: Jake McCarthy (97) and TJ Rumfield (97).

The team isn’t without its own struggling hitters, as Willi Castro (68 wRC+), Brenton Doyle (49 wRC+), and Ezequiel Tovar (36 wRC+) have been pretty easy outs.

If these teams don’t play all three of these games this week and neither one gets into the playoff mix, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a game or two canceled entirely and not made up later in the season. Being that it’s early in the year, it seems more likely that one game today and a doubleheader on Thursday would be the worst case scenario in terms of scheduling, but if the Mets end up playing 160 or 161 games this season, this would be why.

Monday, May 4: Opener + David Peterson vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, 5:40 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson (2026): 30.1 IP, 29 K, 14 BB, 2 HR, 6.53 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 164 ERA-

The Mets haven’t specified who their opener will be in the series opener, but Peterson’s traditional start against the Nationals his last time out couldn’t have gone much worse. He gave up seven runs, all earned, in just three-and-two-thirds innings. Having found better success in the two outings that preceded that, both of which came out of the bullpen after an opener, the Mets will be hoping for similar results in this game.

Sugano (2026): 31.2 IP, 21 K, 9 BB, 5 HR, 2.84 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 60 ERA-

Coming off a so-so debut season in Major League Baseball last year with the Orioles that saw him finish the season with 157.0 innings pitched and a 4.64 ERA, Sugano signed a one-year deal with the Rockies over the offseason. The underlying metrics suggest that his impressive ERA is not sustainable, but the Mets have had a hard enough time this year when facing struggling pitchers. Maybe they’ll surprise us and beat a pitcher who’s off to good start.

Tuesday, May 5: Freddy Peralta vs. Michael Lorenzen, 8:40 PM EDT on SNY

Peralta (2026): 38.1 IP, 42 K, 16 BB, 4 HR, 3.52 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 88 ERA-

Freddy Peralta has continued being himself, and his ERA was helped by his own error in his most recent outing, one that resulted in two of the three runs he allowed being unearned and helping to turn the game into a loss for the Mets. Peralta has completed six innings twice in his seven starts with the Mets and is averaging a bit more than five-and-one-third innings per outing. That’s on brand, as are his current ERA and FIP.

Lorenzen (2026): 34.0 IP, 24 K, 9 BB, 6 HR, 6.09 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 129 ERA-

Lorenzen gave up just one run on seven hits in seven strong innings against the Mets on April 24. Since then, he’s made one start that saw the Reds get him for four runs in five-and-a-third innings. But he’s been particularly bad at home, which isn’t uncommon for pitchers in Colorado. Lorenzen has an 8.56 ERA at Coors Field this year in just 13.2 innings of work. Here’s hoping the Mets can take advantage of that.

Wednesday, May 6: Christian Scott vs. Jose Quintana, 3:10 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2026): 6.1 IP, 9 K, 5 BB, 1 HR, 4.26 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 107 ERA-

After a disastrous return to the major league mound that saw him totally lose the strike zone, Scott returned when Kodai Senga went on the injured list and had a solid second start. He went five innings, gave up three runs, two of them earned, on three hits, struck out eight, and impressively didn’t walk anyone.

Quintana (2026): 24.1 IP, 12 K, 11 BB, 5 HR, 4.07 ERA, 6.31 FIP, 86 ERA-

The former Met pitched well when the Rockies were in Queens recently, as he gave up just one run in five-and-one-third innings with five strikeouts, two walks, and just two hits allowed. And it might surprise you to read that he has a 3.98 ERA since the Mets chose not to pursue him in free agency following the 2024 season. He’s done that despite a 5.05 FIP over that span, but the difference in those metrics is more pronounced this year than it was last year with the Brewers.

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